There is one week left in the 2025 NFL regular season, which means the top part of the 2026 draft order is basically set. The Las Vegas Raiders are heavy favorites to have the No. 1 pick in April. And when the regular season ends Sunday night, we will know the slots for the top 18 picks for sure. Using ESPN’s Football Power Index, we can project the entire order for all 32 selections a little early.
Each week during the season, ESPN’s FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model’s team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team’s average draft position across the simulations.
Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 18.
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Average draft position: 1.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 89.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
To clinch the No. 1 pick in Week 18, the Raiders need:
Average draft position: 2.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 91.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
To clinch the No. 1 pick in Week 18, the Giants need:
Average draft position: 4.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 5.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 58.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 6.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 26.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
Average draft position: 8.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.7%
Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 71.1%
Average draft position: 10.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 75.6%
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.7%
Average draft position: 11.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.9%
Average draft position: 14.4
Average draft position: 15.4
Average draft position: 15.5
Average draft position: 16.0
Average draft position: 16.7
Average draft position: 19.5
Average draft position: 19.9
Average draft position: 20.0
Average draft position: 23.6
Average draft position: 24.1
Average draft position: 24.4
Average draft position: 25.2
Average draft position: 25.3
Average draft position: 25.3
Average draft position: 26.1
Average draft position: 26.4
Average draft position: 27.2
Average draft position: 27.4
Average draft position: 28.4
Average draft position: 28.5
