2026 NFL Draft top storylines: Ty Simpson projections, first-round trades

The 2026 NFL Draft is three weeks away, and other than Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, no one knows what’s going to happen. Every draft brings its surprises. Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to No. 2 overall to grab Travis Hunter, the Chicago Bears surprised many by taking tight end Colston Loveland at No. 10,. Then of course, fans witnessed Shedeur Sanders suffer the most infamous fall in draft history, going from what was thought to be a first-round lock to a fifth-round pick.

What will happen this year? There’s a logjam of pass rushers expected to go somewhere in the top five, a running back that figures to be an immediate superstar and several wide receivers with high ceilings. Then, one must consider which teams could trade up or down. There are a whopping five different franchises that hold multiple first-round picks. Will they stick and pick, or package some selections together to move up the draft board?

Below, we will break down the top five NFL draft storylines to watch. Let’s begin with the prospect viewed as QB2 in this class.

Where will Ty Simpson go?

Since 1997, there has been just one draft where only one quarterback went in the first round. That was in 2022, when the Pittsburgh Steelers took Kenny Pickett at No. 20 overall. Could Mendoza be the lone quarterback selected in the first round this year? It depends on who you ask.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson quickly became one of, if not the biggest, storylines of the draft. Former quarterback Dan Orlovsky claims Simpson is a better NFL prospect than Mendoza, and ESPN’s Mike Tannenbaum says multiple NFL teams like Simpson more than the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. On the flip side, ESPN’s Matt Miller couldn’t find a single team at the Senior Bowl that would give Simpson a Round 1 grade, and multiple pundits admitted it’s tough to find a landing spot in the first 32 picks.

The Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 overall could use a quarterback, but they surely won’t take Simpson at that spot. The Steelers need a backup plan if Aaron Rodgers retires, but would Pittsburgh utilize the No. 21 overall pick on Simpson? Maybe the Cleveland Browns are a team to watch, as they are one of those clubs with multiple first-round picks to use. Could Cleveland’s No. 24 overall selection be where Simpson goes? Speaking of that No. 24 overall pick, that’s where sportsbooks seemingly drew the line. Simpson’s Over/Under draft position over at DraftKings Sportsbook sits at 24.5, with the Over heavily juiced at -270 (meaning Vegas views it more likely than not that Simpson is selected after No. 24 overall).

It feels like the consensus is that a team will trade up back into the first round to select Simpson — as the New York Giants did last draft with Jaxson Dart. DraftKings Sportsbook views the Cardinals (+125) and New York Jets (+145) as the top two favorites to select Simpson, with an intriguing sleeper in the Los Angeles Rams listed at No. 3 (+425). 

Simpson doesn’t possess Mendoza’s physical frame or experience, but he’s still an intriguing prospect. He earned Second Team All-SEC in 2025 after throwing for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns and five interceptions. Simpson looked like a stud through the first nine games of the season, averaging 273.4 passing yards per game with 21 touchdowns and one interception, before struggling down the stretch. Simpson averaged 184.3 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns and four interceptions in the final six games of the season.

Where is Jeremiyah Love’s floor?

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is viewed by some experts as the best player in the draft, but how high will he go? We saw the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 overall last year, while Bijan Robinson went No. 8 overall and Jahmyr Gibbs No. 12 overall back in 2023. Love could go higher than any of them.

DraftKings Sportsbook set Love’s Over/Under draft position at 4.5, with the Over juiced at -160. If you dive a bit deeper, the Tennessee Titans at No. 4 overall are actually favored to select Love at +115. That’s a fascinating fit. Tennessee revamped the defensive side of the ball in free agency, signing defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers, trading for pass rusher Jermaine Johnson II and adding two starting cornerbacks in Alontae Taylor and Cordale Flott. Running back isn’t exactly a need for the Titans, given they have Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, but giving Cam Ward a playmaker like Love is intriguing.

Love could be a fit for the Giants at No. 5 overall, and certainly for the Washington Commanders at No. 7. Washington is viewed as the second favorite to select Love at +120. In fact, the Commanders at No. 7 may actually be Love’s floor. If Washington passes on him, the New Orleans Saints at No. 8 and the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9 could receive trade calls.

The reigning Doak Walker Award winner led the FBS in rushing touchdowns (35) and scrimmage touchdowns (40) over the last two seasons. He’s crossed 1,100 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns each of the last two years, and is an explosive weapon that will immediately benefit any team. Without a doubt, Love is one of the top draft storylines.

Veterans who could be traded during the draft

Trades are a major storyline. The Chiefs traded star cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams, DJ Moore was shipped to the Buffalo Bills, Michael Pittman Jr. landed in Pittsburgh and the Miami Dolphins sent star wideout Jaylen Waddle to the Denver Broncos. We aren’t done with trades just yet, and a notable player or two could switch teams during the draft.

Keep watching Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown. He didn’t exactly hold his tongue in criticizing Philly’s offense in 2025, as he failed to catch a pass in a half of a game SEVEN different times this past season. Brown failed to catch a pass in just one half during the 2024 campaign, as the Eagles went on to win the Super Bowl. Brown did reach 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth consecutive season, but his 1,003 yards were his fewest since joining the Eagles.

It’s possible Philadelphia could trade Brown during the draft, but there are two obstacles the Eagles must consider. One is that Philly will want a considerable return for its WR1. If Waddle can go for first- and third-round picks, the Eagles will want more than that, right? The second obstacle is that it makes more financial sense for the Eagles to trade Brown after June 1.

If Brown were to be traded today, for example, the Eagles take on a dead cap hit north of $43.5 million, and lose $20.1 million in “savings,” per Spotrac. If a Brown trade went down after June 1, the Eagles could split that $43 million dead cap hit over two years, and gain $7 million in savings. Philly has nine picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, so the Eagles aren’t exactly hurting for draft capital. Bottom line, the Eagles don’t have to force a Brown trade. 

Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers would certainly like to be moved. He surely played his last down for the 49ers, but the franchise is holding out hope they can trade him. Remember, Aiyuk signed a four-year, $120 million extension in 2024, but San Francisco voided his remaining guarantees. The 49ers would like to get some kind of compensation in parting ways with a wideout that’s a top 10 pass-catcher when he’s at his best. CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones previously reported that Aiyuk could sign a one-year deal with the Commanders and reunite with his college quarterback, Jayden Daniels, if released, so keep an eye on Washington. 

Who will be that surprise first-round pick?

Every year, surprise players sneak into the first round. I wasn’t expecting the Detroit Lions to take defensive tackle Tyleik Williams at No. 28 overall last year. In 2024, the opening round ended with two surprise wide receivers being selected in Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette. Who’s next?

• LB Anthony Hill Jr. (Texas): The former Longhorn is a great athlete who racked up 23.5 tackles for loss over the last two seasons. He registered just a 4.5% missed tackle rate last year, according to TruMedia, and has flashed when it comes to both rushing the passer and in coverage. NFL.com compared him to Bobby Wagner, and if that’s his ceiling, then Hill is worth a first-round pick. 
• LB Jake Golday (Cincinnati): If you don’t think off-ball linebackers should go in the first round, consider that Carson Schwesinger is your reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Jake Golday could be this season’s Schwesinger, as he’s a former defensive end who racked up 105 combined tackles in 2025. CBS Sports ranks him as the No. 32 overall prospect. Don’t sleep on him. 
• EDGE Malachi Lawrence (UCF): Lawrence didn’t put up the biggest numbers with seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2025, but his size, length and skillset are all attractive. Lawrence was one of the winners at the NFL combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.52 seconds, registering a 1.59-second 10-yard split, a 40-inch vertical and 130-inch broad jump.
• EDGE R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma): The First Team All-SEC pass rusher registered 22 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks over the past two seasons, and is a high-effort warrior that never gives up on a play. The problem is that he’s undersized at 241 pounds and possesses sub-32-inch arms, but teams will fall in love with his quickness and bend.
• EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami): The biggest knock against Mesidor is that he turns 25-years-old in a few days, but he ranked top five in the FBS in sacks (12.5), tackles for loss (17.5) and pressures (67). He actually led the ACC in sacks, then kept the pressure up during Miami’s four College Football Playoff games, recording 5.5 sacks and 23 pressures.
• CB Keith Abney II (Arizona State): My top cornerbacks in this class are Mansoor Delane, Jermod McCoy, Colton Hood and Avieon Terrell, but Abney is another to watch. He allowed a 46.1 passer rating in 2025 while picking up First Team All-Big 12 honors. Abney is highly competitive and physical, although sometimes to a fault when it comes to penalties. There are teams that will overlook that, because you want your top cornerbacks to be alphas that don’t back down from a challenge. That’s Abney.

How many WRs will go on opening night?

DraftKings Sportsbook has set the Over/Under at 5.5 with the Under juiced at -240. Taking the Over 5.5 at +185 is tempting. 

Wide receiver is a premier position for which teams are more willing to reach, so six wide receivers in Round 1 is doable. 

• Carnell Tate (Ohio State): Tate appears to be the consensus No. 1 wide receiver, and for good reason. He caught 51 passes for 875 yards and nine touchdowns in 11 games played last year, and his six receiving touchdowns of 30+ air yards ranked the most in the FBS. Ohio State seemingly churns out star receivers, and Tate is next in line. This will mark the fifth straight draft where Ohio State produces a wide receiver selected in the first round. 
• Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State): If it weren’t for injury concerns, Tyson could be the No. 1 wideout in this class. His 1,812 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns over the past two seasons rank No. 2 in the Big 12, and CBS Sports compared him to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyson is a first-round lock.
• Makai Lemon (USC): Here’s the NFL’s chance to draft Amon-Ra St. Brown again. The 2025 Biletnikoff Award winner had four games where he exploded for 150 yards receiving and a touchdown, and also registered the most yards after catch (502) in the Big Ten last season. He is a slot weapon with elite spatial awareness. He will make an immediate impact.
• Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana): Cooper averaged a whopping 21.2 yards per reception in 2024 before shifting to more of a slot role in 2025. Last year, he caught 69 passes for 937 yards and 13 touchdowns for the undefeated Hoosiers. Cooper’s versatility is exciting, and he’s been compared to Deebo Samuel. 
• KC Concepcion (Texas A&M): When’s the last time you saw a player be named First Team All-SEC three times in the same year? Concepcion earned those honors as a wide receiver, all-purpose player and return specialist in 2025. No wonder he won the 2025 Paul Horung Award as the most versatile player in the FBS. The NC State transfer caught 61 passes for 919 yards and nine touchdowns in 2025, and returned 25 punts for 456 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a smaller player at 5-foot-11, 190 pounds and registered his fair share of drops, but don’t get it twisted, Concepcion is a weapon. 
• Denzel Boston (Washington): Boston is a massive 6-foot-4 target who caught 20 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He’s a red-zone nightmare that will out-physical smaller corners, but there is a polarizing point of concern. Boston is not the fastest player in the world, and chose not to run the 40-yard dash at the combine or his pro day. Some evaluators believe these concerns are exaggerated because you don’t have to be a burner to be impactful. Puka Nacua ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at his pro day. 

While these are arguably the top six wide receivers in this class, another wideout could skip ahead of the group and go in the first round. Candidates include Alabama’s Germie Bernard, Notre Dame’s Malachi Fields, Georgia’s Zachariah Branch and Chris Brazzell II out of Tennessee.