The Columbus Blue Jackets continue their most important homestand of the season on Saturday night at Nationwide Arena, hosting the top team in the Eastern Conference, the Tampa Bay Lightning.
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Columbus is back in the mix of the Eastern Conference playoff race and currently sits seven points (3.5 games) out of the final Wild Card spot, which is held by the Boston Bruins. The Blue Jackets do have a game in hand on Boston and are 23-20-7 50 games into this season, about where they were at this point last season.
Tampa Bay enters the night with a 32-13-4 record and has already faced the Blue Jackets once this season, losing 3-2 at Nationwide Arena in mid-October. They are red-hot coming into Columbus, going 14-0-1 in their last 15 games, and will be a true test of how improved this Blue Jackets team is under new head coach Rick Bowness.
Below are my three keys to pulling off a big win on Saturday night.
Take Advantage of Tired Lightning
Columbus needs to pressure early, be hard on the forecheck, get to pucks quickly, and do what Bowness wants them to do. Tampa Bay went to a shootout on Friday night against the Chicago Blackhawks, winning 2-1, and then traveled to Columbus late. A full 65-minute game the night before will lead to tired legs for the Lightning, especially in the final half of Saturday’s game.
The Blue Jackets must take advantage of this. Play physical, finish all checks, and wear the Lightning down – do not give their top players much space to make plays. Nikita Kucherov is on a tear this season with 25 goals and 49 assists in 45 games. Brandon Hagel is another winger to key on, and Darren Raddysh has been a major offensive threat from the blue line with 42 points in 43 games. J.J. Moser leads the team at plus-38 and is as defensively sound as they come.
Columbus needs to continue finishing checks the way they did Thursday against the Dallas Stars, when they recorded 35 hits compared to the Stars’ seven. Mathieu Olivier led with five, and others like Isac Lundestrom and Jake Christiansen were noticeable in this area, too. These depth players are going to have to step up again to help this team take down a top NHL squad like the Lightning.
Goaltending (of course) is always important. Jet Greaves is expected to start for Columbus. Andrei Vasilevskiy started for Tampa Bay on Friday night, so Jonas Johansson is the likely starter on Saturday. Johansson started against Columbus back on Oct. 18.
Generate More Offense
The Blue Jackets have scored only two goals in their past two games. They scored once in the 4-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators and once in the 1-0 win over Dallas on Thursday. One goal is not going to cut it against one of the highest-scoring teams in the NHL. Tampa Bay has 169 goals this season, tied for fifth in the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Tampa is one of the most balanced teams in the NHL, scoring 3.45 goals per game and allowing only 2.45 goals per game. The Blue Jackets are in the bottom tier of the NHL in both categories. The Lightning have a plus-50 goal differential, second-highest in the NHL behind only the Colorado Avalanche.
Thursday night’s win over Dallas was one of the best defensive performances of the season for Columbus. They need to play a mature game like that again to even have a chance in this one.
Offensively, the Blue Jackets have to find a way to break through. Tampa’s defense does not stray out of position much and does not pinch up often. Dallas, on Thursday, made a big emphasis on forcing Columbus to beat them with speed, and the Lightning will likely do the same. The Blue Jackets need traffic in front of the net and have to score some dirty goals. That means getting their bigger players to the crease.
This is why Dimitri Voronkov’s move to the fourth line recently has been confusing, as that is his specialty. He played only 6:43 on Thursday against Dallas, which is not enough for a player who can make an impact around the net. According to Aaron Portzline, he will be on the second power-play unit Saturday night, but I would like to see him on the top unit. He leads the team in power-play goals with seven, four more than Zach Werenski, Kirill Marcenko, and Adam Fantilli.
Somebody besides Werenski needs to step up. Werenski has six points in his last five games, but more depth contribution is needed if this team wants to climb up the standings. Fantilli is one player who has to help spark things. He centered the top line on Thursday with Mason Marchment and Marchenko, played 21:12, and clearly has Bowness’ trust. It would be great to see his scoring get back up to speed, especially with the power play needing a boost.
Win the Faceoff Battle
The faceoff circle is one of the few areas where the Lightning struggle. They rank 31st in the NHL in faceoff win percentage at 46.3%. Their top regular faceoff options have been Jake Guentzel and Anthony Cirelli, but neither of them is among the league’s top performers. Columbus needs to take advantage of this weakness.
The Blue Jackets rank 13th in the league at 50.7%. In Thursday’s game against Dallas, Adam Fantilli took a team-high 24 faceoffs and won 16 of them (66.7%). Charlie Coyle and Sean Monahan have been the other main players taking draws under Bowness, but Fantilli took 10 more draws than Coyle on Thursday, who had the second most on the team.
Winning faceoffs directly impacts special teams’ success. A clean win on the penalty kill lets you clear the puck right away, while a clean win on the power play sets up instant pressure in the offensive zone. Columbus needs to use this advantage to fire more shots and create longer stretches of sustained zone time.
The Blue Jackets continue their five-game homestand tonight at 7:00 PM, the third game of the stretch, with snow expected across much of Ohio. If you’re heading to Nationwide, stay safe on the drive home.
