The Tampa Bay Lightning have struggled to regain traction since the Olympic break, and the time after the trade deadline appears to present the same issue. After a strong win to start post-Olympic play, they’ve dropped seven of their last nine.
Here are three thoughts on the Lightning’s recent skid. There are some focuses on specific players, trends and just an overarching observation at the season’s outlook as a whole.
The Recent Skid Hasn’t Ruined Expectations (Yet)
For now, they’re still getting the benefit of the doubt when it comes to playoff expectations. During this run, they’re still predicted to reach the Stanley Cup Final. They are expected by some to win it, but they’re largely seen as the eventual runner-up.
In a recent poll from The Athletic, 56% of their NHL staff picked the Lightning to be the runner-up in the Final, and 8% picked them to win the Cup. They were the team with the third-most votes to win it all, and no other team, naturally, came close to being polled as the runner-up. The consensus is that they will lose a rematch to the Colorado Avalanche (from ‘NHL 2025-26 season predictions 3.0: How did the trade deadline impact our picks?,’ The Athletic, March 14, 2026).
How long this benefit of the doubt will last will depend on how they finish the season. They’ve sleepwalked into the postseason before and won a Cup (2020-21), but that was a handful of games. This is with a month to go. A bad week? They happen. A bad couple of months? That’s a trend.
Corey Perry Has Been a Solid Addition
He’s done his job since returning to Tampa. In five games, Corey Perry has had two goals and an assist. For good measure, he’s dropped the gloves for his team. He’s been able to make a thing or two happen when the offense has struggled to get going for the better part of three weeks.
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At 40 years old, he’s showing he can still be a solid addition to a contender. While it doesn’t look that way if you look at the final scores since he arrived, it hasn’t been on him. For all we know, this could have been worse.
It hasn’t been the case every night, but the Lightning have scored two goals or fewer five times since the season resumed. It’s not the offense’s fault entirely, but being feast or famine isn’t going to bode well for the season.
Defense Is Out the Window with No Solution in Sight
It feels like the Lightning keep finding themselves behind by multiple goals early, needing to mount comebacks that fall short. Injuries have likely been a factor.
Max Crozier is likely out for the remainder of the regular season, and he’s been a key piece of the defense. It’s crazy to say, but the defense looked better while Victor Hedman has been absent. No one wants him hurt. It’s just how topsy-turvy this season has been, even during the strong parts of it. Along with his injuries, he may just be showing his age more. After all, he’s 35 years old.
Darren Raddysh is far from the problem, but he hasn’t looked his best every night either. One night, he blocked five shots, but on another night, he had four giveaways.
Like I said before, the offensive struggles haven’t been entirely on the offense. It’s hard to get going when the defensive struggles have had them pinned in their own zone. It’s actually impressive that they’ve been able to make some of these losses into a game again. That’s how good the Lightning’s offense is. For those wondering why I haven’t discussed Nikita Kucherov, it’s because he’s been covered in a full story.
Anyway, before I totally digress, your guess is as good as mine as to which pairings on defense will work best. They’re going to limp into the playoffs one way or another. They’re ahead enough that they can do well enough to make it. However, this is a team looking to show they won’t get bounced again in the first round. This version of the Lightning is out in four games.
Those are the thoughts for now. It’s been a rough go-around, but the expectation is that they’ll get their act together. Time will tell if they do. They’re the Lightning. No one wants to count them out. Precedent gives everyone a good reason not to. That being said, doubts will creep in eventually.
