The Montreal Canadiens began their Olympic break in what would have generally been considered an outlandish position heading into 2025-26: in second place in the Atlantic Division, with home-ice advantage effectively within their grasp. All they need to do is stay there. That’s easier said than done though, for obvious reasons, in a tight division.
To be fair, the Canadiens aren’t guaranteed to so much as reach the postseason at this point. However, seven points up on the ninth-place Columbus Blue Jackets (who have one game in hand), they’re fairly safe at the moment. They just need to keep what they’re doing, in that regard. That doesn’t hold true if they hold higher aspirations, though.
It doesn’t suffice to say the Canadiens just need to “win” to get home ice, as technically true as that may be. Sure, if they run the table over their remaining 25 games, they’re most likely going to earn home ice, but then again they’ll have earned 122 points in the process, which could also lead to the Presidents’ Trophy, which is inherently unlikely.
As unlikely as it may have seemed that they would earn home ice, now that the hypothetical goal has become a possibility, it’s owed a level of respect, in a manner of speaking, which, ironically, so few analysts paid the Canadiens at the onset of the season. So, with that, here are the three ways the Habs make home ice to start the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs a reality:
3. Improve Their Atlantic Intradivisional Play
About that Atlantic… the Canadiens may currently hold down second place, but it’s on a technicality, as the Detroit Red Wings have the same amount of points (72), just with one additional game played (58). With the Tampa Bay Lightning having started to break away at 37-14-4 (78 points) in just 55 games, second place will most likely come down to one of the Habs, Wings, Buffalo Sabres (70 in 57) or Boston Bruins (69 in 57).
The good news is, of all those teams listed, the Canadiens have the easiest schedule remaining. The bad news is two-fold, though:
- Their remaining opponents still have a .575 points percentage on average.
- Many of those games are against Atlantic teams, against which the Habs have struggled.
For context, the Canadiens are a pedestrian 10-8-1 against the Atlantic, which amounts to a .553 points percentage. Overall, they’ve got one of .632. So, especially with seven Atlantic games left, at least two of which one would consider four-point games (against the Bruins and Wings in quick succession, March 17-19), that’s something they need to address.
2. Kill More Penalties
One recent Atlantic game comes to mind as the perfect example of with what the Canadiens are dealing. On Jan. 24, against the Bruins, the Habs led 3-2 on the strength of a Cole Caufield hat trick, with less than 10 minutes left. Right after the Bruins scored one to pull even, Habs defenseman Alexandre Carrier got called for holding. Even if you didn’t watch or hear about the game, you can probably see where this is going.
In what amounted to 12 seconds of game time after the first Bruins goal, they scored again to pull ahead 4-3, which ended up being the final score. It was the third power-play goal in four opportunities the Canadiens gave up in the game, showcasing one of their biggest weaknesses on the season. At a 25th-ranked 76.9%, their penalty kill is bad.
There’s no other way to say it, and, if the refereeing is as inconsistent as it’s been, especially in their direction compared to with regard to all other Atlantic teams (whether through sheer coincidence or not), simply committing to staying disciplined won’t be enough. They need to get better at killing penalties.
1. Get At Least Average Goaltending
Goalie Sam Montembeault was also exposed on those two Bruins goals, taking the loss during a season in which he’s struggled significantly. It’s ironic, because, according to stats compiled MoneyPuck.com, he’s allowed a team-worst -3.1 goals saved above expected, but he’s also the team’s best while playing at four on five (2.3).
It’s the inverse situation for Jakub Dobes, who seems to have taken over as the team’s starter after the Bruins loss. It goes to show there are no easy solutions here. While Dobes has been effective overall with an 18-5-4 record, he still has an .892 save percentage (SV%). The league average is .896%. So, even from their most effective goalie, the Canadiens aren’t technically getting average goaltending.
Related: 10 Stats that Define the Canadiens’ 2025-26 Season at Olympic Break
They’ve obviously gotten by with an incredibly dynamic, third-ranked offense, which will serve them well down the stretch, but it begs the question just how much better off would they be had they been getting even average goaltending all this time. What’s done is done though, and Canadiens fans should at least be grateful the Habs are where they are in the standings, which is objectively impressive considering they finished in last place in 2022.
No one should expect Dobes or Montembeault to put up performances reminiscent of Carey Price in his peak… or even during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Age 33, which would be the last regular action he’d see before “retiring.” In fact, the stats say you don’t need elite goaltending to win it all, but below-average play in net won’t get it done either.
Thankfully, since Marco Marciano got hired as the team’s new (interim) goaltending coach, non-coincidentally soon following the aforementioned loss to the Bruins, the Canadiens are 3-0-1, with a .922 SV%. One of those wins even came against the division-rival Sabres, showing that things continue to look up relatively speaking for the Habs.
For the record, their penalty kill was only successful 10 out of 13 times in those games for a success rate of 76.9%, in line with how they’ve fared all season long. So, they’re two for three, as far as this list goes, which, again, has them just barely holding on to second place in the division. It’s good, but not good enough if they want to pull away and earn home ice. And why wouldn’t they now that they’ve established they theoretically can? Will they, though?
