60 picks for Super Bowl 60: Patriots vs. Seahawks best bets

Super Bowl 60 is this Sunday at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., and it’s going to be the biggest betting event of the year. Sportsbooks release hundreds, even thousands of props associated with the NFL’s championship game, which this year will be between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. These cover everything from who scores first to who scores at all to what score each team will have at the final whistle, and plenty more along the way.

Last year, as part of my 59 picks for Super Bowl 59 feature at SportsLine, I picked the Eagles to beat the Chiefs on the money line at +105 and had no sweat at all by the fourth quarter. I also hit props like Eagles to score more than 3.5 points in the first quarter, Jalen Hurts to have at least 10 more rushing yards than Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown at +155, the shortest touchdown being under 1.5 yards, a successful two-point conversion, more than 2.5 players to throw a pass and plenty more. I even hit the last song of the halftime show with a longshot play (thanks, Kendrick Lamar!).

We’ve talked about Chiefs props in the Super Bowl plenty over the years, and Super Bowl 60 brings us the opportunity to forget about Travis Kelce and Co. for just the second time in the last seven Super Bowls. Instead, we have Drake Maye taking the Patriots to the championship game in just his second season, going up against former journeyman turned franchise quarterback Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. The opening Super Bowl odds put the Seahawks as a significant favorite, something that is unlikely to change in the run up to kickoff.

Full disclosure: I’m not going to make 60 bets on the Super Bowl. You shouldn’t either. But below I’ll share 60 plays I’m at least willing to consider, and several will make it on my final betslip for the game. All odds are via DraftKings and subject to change.

Game picks (7)

Patriots money line (+190)
Patriots +4.5 (-105)
Patriots +3.5 1H (-133)
Patriots +0.5 1Q (-125)

I backed some ugly home underdogs this postseason, starting with the Panthers against the Rams, a game that many thought would be a blowout. We’ve seen time and again those supposed mismatches turn into closer games than the market expects, and now home underdogs of four or more in the playoffs are 11-0 ATS over the last 50 years.

Super Bowls that are considered mismatches have followed a similar pattern, with underdogs of 3.5 or more 11-2 ATS over the last 25 years. That run started with the Patriots shockingly beating the Greatest Show on Turf as 14-point underdogs and included the Patriots at their peak losing outright to the Giants as 12.5-point favorites. During that 13-game sample, we’ve seen the underdog win outright more than the favorite, with a streak of four straight underdog wins ended by the Rams in their three-point victory over the Bengals as 3.5-point favorites four years ago.

As great as the Seahawks look, I don’t think the Patriots are getting enough credit for how well their defense has played of late. The creative looks thrown at offenses by Zak Kuhr plus the return of multiple key players for the postseason push has given the Patriots the ability to win ugly, and even though Sam Darnold has answered questions about his performance in big games, this would be a big test for any quarterback. I see this as a tough defensive battle where points will be at a premium, and I’ll align with recent trends and take the big underdog in that type of game. The value on the money line is also too high to pass up.

Under 45.5 (-110)
Under 20.5 1H (+102)
Under 7.5 1Q (-118)

As mentioned above, I think this is going to be a lower-scoring game, and I definitely think it’ll be a lower-scoring start to the game. The pregame ceremonies for the Super Bowl are so long that it often takes players who aren’t used to it time to get into the natural rhythm of the game, and with two elite defenses in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes a while to score a touchdown.

Player prop picks (12)

Mack Hollins Over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)
Mack Hollins 40+ receiving yards (+176)
Mack Hollins 50+ receiving yards (+286)
Mack Hollins 3+ receptions (+116)
Mack Hollins 4+ receptions (+290)
Mack Hollins Over 16.5 longest reception (-115)

Hollins has been a key weapon for the Patriots when they’ve faced tougher opponents, getting eight-plus targets against the Bills, Ravens and Buccaneers in the regular season, and he has outproduced No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs in several of those spots. Hollins returned from injured reserve in the AFC Championship to give the Patriots essentially their only passing-game production in the weather-affected matchup, catching both targets for 51 yards, and that put him over his main receiving yards line in nine of his last 11 games. This yardage prop is probably my favorite player prop on the board, and I think it’s worth laddering all the way up to 100+, but I also like Hollins to get to three receptions at plus odds and his longest reception prop as well, as he’s had an 18+ yard catch in eight of the last 10 games as well.

Rashid Shaheed Under 1.5 receptions (+116)

Shaheed has had multiple receptions in just three of his 11 games since joining Seattle, while he’s earned a rush attempt in eight of those games. The targets Shaheed does get in the pass game will likely be big-play hunting, while the Seahawks look to get him involved as a runner around the line of scrimmage. This seems like nice value to fade multiple catches from the do-it-all weapon, who will also be counted on to give Seattle the special teams edge.

Kenneth Walker Over 22.5 receiving yards (-114)

Walker has been a relevant part of the passing attack even before Zach Charbonnet’s injury, receiving multiple targets in nine of his last 10 games. He’s caught all 16 of his targets over the last five games, reaching 28 receiving yards four times in that stretch. The Patriots tied for the fifth most receptions allowed to running backs per game in the regular season, giving up an average of nearly 31 receiving yards to the position, and Walker should get almost all of that production here.

TreVeyon Henderson Over 4.5 rush attempts (-149)

Henderson suffered an injury in the win over the Texans and was limited to just four snaps in the AFC Championship, but he should be in a better spot for this game with the bye week before the Super Bowl. While Henderson has struggled this postseason as he deals with injury issues, he’s proven to be a big play waiting to happen, and the Patriots will need him to break off a big run at some point to win this game. I expect they’ll be more than willing to give him at least five carries — which he had in 12 straight games prior to the AFC Championship — while chasing a big play.

Drake Maye Over 37.5 rushing yards (-109)

Mobile quarterbacks tend to see their rushing production elevated in the playoffs where they’re more willing to tuck and run to pick up first downs, even if it means taking hits. Maye had 10 carries in two of his three postseason games after hitting that number twice the entire regular season, and he had 60+ rushing yards in both those playoff games against top defenses. The Seahawks’ defensive front should continue to put pressure on Maye, which should mean more running from the QB, and I expect him to top 40 rushing yards for the eighth time this season.

Sam Darnold Under 1.5 passing TDs (-104)

Darnold has has multiple passing touchdowns in eight of the 10 games where the Seahawks have scored 30 points and just one time in their nine other games. I don’t think the Seahawks get anywhere near 30 points with how well the Patriots defense is playing, so I like getting near even odds on this prop. The Patriots have allowed multiple passing TDs in just one game since Week 10.

DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.25 sacks (-103)

After more than a decade with the Cowboys, Lawrence is finally playing in his first Super Bowl, and he’s played a big part in Seattle reaching this moment with a sack and forced fumble in three of his last four games. He’s also registered a QB hit in 13 of his last 14 games, and we’ve seen Maye struggle to hold onto the ball under pressure in the postseason. If that happens on a Lawrence hit, he should get credit for at least half a sack, but there’s every chance he records a standard sack in this game regardless. However, we’ll touch on the forced fumble in the Longshots section below.

Pregame picks (2)

National anthem length: Under 120.5 seconds (-125)

This may be hard to play anywhere except a watch party, but I believe Charlie Puth is going to keep his national anthem rendition shorter than two minutes.

Coin toss: Heads (+100)

You should only be playing coin toss props at even odds for obvious reasons, and I think this is a year where Tails fails, just like plenty of supposed sure things in the NFL this season.

Early prop picks (8)

What will the Patriots’ first drive result in: Punt (-108)
Will the Patriots cross their opponent’s 35-yard line on their first drive: No (-140)

Not only have the Patriots punted on the first drive of each of their three playoff games, all against top-tier defenses, but the Seahawks defense has forced a punt on their opponents’ first offensive drive in six of the last eight games, with the other two resulting in turnovers on downs. I don’t think the Patriots will be that aggressive on fourth down to open the game, so I like the value on -108 to punt here, as if they can’t get inside the 35-yard line, I don’t anticipate a field goal try.

Will the Seahawks cross their opponent’s 35-yard line on their first drive: No (-113)
Will the Seahawks cross the 50-yard line on their first drive: No (+169)

Same premise as above as I think it’ll be a slow start for both offenses following the long pregame, and I like the additional value of the Seahawks not getting to midfield. I do think there’s a shot they trust Jason Myers with a long field goal attempt early if they cross midfield, so I’m going to avoid the Punt play here.

First Patriots reception: Stefon Diggs (+270)

While I love the value on Mack Hollins props in this game, there’s no question Diggs has been Maye’s go-to target at the beginning of games in the playoffs, catching the team’s first pass in all three games. I think he’ll get the first target in this one.

First score: Field goal (+110)
Quarter of first touchdown: Second (+255)

Touchdown is -140 in the first score prop, and while these are two good offenses, I trust the defenses more to get the stops they need early. Safety has actually cashed twice in this prop in the last 14 years, so a +3500 sprinkle may look appealing, but I see the better value in backing the field goal as I think it could take a while to get to the red zone in this game.

Seahawks first quarter team total Under 3.5 (-110)

Once again counting on the improvements the Patriots defense has made heading into this game to stick and result in a slow start for the Seahawks offense. If they ruin this by returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown, so be it.

Special teams prop picks (6)

Total field goals made: Over 3.5 (-115)
Will both teams make a 33+ yard FG: Yes (-125)
Both teams to score 2+ FG: Yes (+175)

In a game where I expect the defenses to dictate the action, field goals are going to become extremely valuable, and I think we’ll get two from each kicker. Jason Myers has multiple field goals in 10 of his last 11 games, while Andres Borregales has been more hit or miss. However, Myers has also kicked three field goals eight times this year, so he could do the lion’s share of the work for us in the total field goals prop, while we can sprinkle on the other for a more even distribution.

Seahawks total field goal yardage: Over 66.5 (-115)

Myers is heavily favored to make two field goals in this game, and if he does then I expect this prop is going to cash considering that only five of his 41 field goals in the regular season were shorter than 30 yards.

Total punts: Over 7.5 (-110)
Total kickoffs: Under 10.5 (-140)

Again playing my theory this is going to be a defensive battle, I see plenty of punts in this game and not many kickoff due to the lack of scoring drives. The Patriots had eight punts themselves in each of the last two games after not even punting four times in any of their previous eight games. The Seahawks have punted at least three times in 12 of their 19 games, and between the two, I think both teams get to three punts and at least one gets to five.

Full game prop picks (13)

Most rushing yards: Kenneth Walker (-170)

This feels like even more of a layup than the odds indicate as I don’t see Rhamondre Stevenson having a great day rushing the ball. If the Patriots rush defense has a fantastic game, maybe that puts a random option like Drake Maye in play, but I’d make Walker at least -200 in this prop.

Total players with rush attempts: Over 7.5 (+115)

This is solid value on the Over considering we expect Rashid Shaheed, Sam Darnold, Kenneth Walker and at least one other running back to record a carry for the Seahawks. That means we’re looking for either a third Seattle running back to carry the ball, a trick play to put the ball in the hands of someone unexpected (or a potential Cooper Kupp pass attempt turning into a tuck and run if it doesn’t fool the defense), or what I think is the most likely option, an AJ Barner tush push. Or we could just get someone other than Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to record a carry for the Patriots.

Exact interceptions throw in game: 2 (+230)

We probably get one pick from each quarterback in this game, but taking this versus their individual interception props allows a bit of wiggle room for one QB to be better than expected and the other worse. With Darnold throwing 14 picks in the regular season and the Seahawks recording 18 picks on defense, this seems to be a decent value when compared to one interception at +165.

Highest scoring half: Second half (-115)

I’ve talked about expecting a slower start to the game, and this is the easiest way to back that opinion. We could also see a better chance of defensive touchdowns in the second half as the team that’s behind gets more aggressive on offense, which would help this prop cash even if my overall read on it being a lower-scoring game is wrong.

Seahawks score in every quarter: No (-190)

This is a steep price to pay, but it’s only happened against the Patriots twice all season. The Seahawks have an elite offense, so they should have a better chance of pulling it off, but they’ve only scored in every quarter in five of their 19 games this year, which corresponds closer to -300 than -200.

Any team to score 30+ points: No (-145)
Race to 25 points: Neither (+165)

This is projected to be around a 25-20 final based on the current lines, but I see that as optimistic for both offenses. I don’t think the Seahawks get to four TDs with how well the Patriots defense is playing, so the 30+ point prop becomes an easy prop to back in correlation with my Under play on the game. I also like the value on the Race to 25 prop, and I would even think about a sprinkle on neither team getting to 20 points.

Seahawks TT Under 24.5 (-105)
Seahawks TT Under 2.5 TDs (+120)

These two plays correlate with the two props above and the Seahawks not having as easy a time against the improved Patriots defense as the market expects. This could be ruined by a Seahawks defense/special teams touchdown, so it’s worth sprinkling that prop as well at +370 to give us a little bit of coverage.

Game to be tied again after 0-0: Yes (-130)

I see the spread as being too high and would make this a three-point game. That said, the most likely outcome here is that the teams exchange field goals early and we win this with a 3-3 score in the first half.

Total fourth-down conversions: Under 1.5 (-130)

I expect there will be multiple attempts on fourth down, but I’ll trust these defenses to get the job done and create a turnover on downs in those situations. The Patriots defense was actually elite on fourth down in the regular season, only allowing a conversion on 10 of 30 attempts.

Most time of possession: Patriots (+110)

These are two teams used to winning the TOP battle, with the Seahawks doing it in four straight and the Patriots coming out on top in six straight. However, the average Seahawks drive is just four seconds longer on offense than what they face on defense, while that gap is 12 seconds for the Patriots. To me, this prop should be a lot closer to even odds between the two teams.

Super Bowl MVP: Drake Maye (+240)

Darnold is an awesome value to be named Super Bowl MVP at +115 considering the award typically goes to a quarterback, but since I think the Patriots are good value on the money line, Maye has to also be a great value to win MVP at this price. I also have a longshot play below for the award.

Cross-sport prop picks (2)

Mack Hollins receiving yards over Kawhi Leonard points vs. Timberwolves (-105)

You mean to tell me I can back my guy Hollins in a cross-sport prop, and if I’m right about his ladder potential it doesn’t matter what happens on the other side of this prop? Sign me up.

Jaylen Brown rebounds vs. Knicks over Jaxon Smith-Njigba receptions (+110)

Smith-Njigba is projected to get around seven receptions, though Christian Gonzalez could keep him under that number with a good game. Brown is averaging 6.9 rebounds on the season but his numbers have spiked of late, with eight or more rebounds in six of his last seven games including matching his season-high with 13 rebounds last Sunday. The Knicks allow the fifth-fewest rebounds in the NBA, but Karl-Anthony Towns, who leads the league in rebounds per game, is the subject of trade rumors, and if he gets dealt before Sunday this would be an even better value.

Longshot picks (10)

First quarter/full time: Tie/Patriots (+950)

I mentioned many, many picks ago that I liked the value on the Patriots on the money line. This would be a nice sweetener if you want to take that angle, as we’d be rooting for the first quarter to end either 0-0 or 3-3. Super Bowls can start slow, particularly for teams made up by players who aren’t used to being there and enduring the long run-up to opening kickoff.

Player to cause sack and force fumble on the same play: DeMarcus Lawrence (+1100)

We talked earlier about Lawrence getting a sack in this game, and with three games in his last four featuring a sack and forced fumble, I like a sprinkle here even if these probably aren’t the best odds for value. With Maye having a fumbling issue in recent games, Lawrence has a shot at continuing his strong run of sacks and forced fumbles.

Position to score first touchdown: Defense/special teams (+1200)

This market features receiver as the favorite at -110 and running back close behind at +125, with tight end considered the next most likely at +370 before you get into the longshots with quarterback (+1000), defensive/special teams and offensive lineman (+5000). But is that the correct odds table for this matchup? These teams have combined for 122 touchdowns in the regular season and postseason combined, and 13 of them have come via defense or special teams. That’s just five fewer than the tight end position and eight more than quarterback. In fact, if you take the share of the total touchdowns for each position and convert it to implied odds, D/ST comes in at +938 and the offensive positions are far longer than what the market is giving. I’ll play the odds and hope for a kickoff return TD, pick-six or scoop-and-score to get things started.

Super Bowl MVP: Any defensive player (+1600)

This happens more than you might think, with 10 defenders winning Super Bowl MVP over the years, but it hasn’t happened in 10 years. Since I see this as a lower-scoring game, one big defensive play could wind up swinging things. We could also win this award if Marcus Jones has a big impact in the return game for the Patriots.

Mack Hollins receiving yards: 80+ (+1060), 90+ (+1480), 100+ (+2100)
Triple Crown game leaders: Drake Maye / Mack Hollins / Kenneth Walker (+5500)
Super Bowl MVP: Mack Hollins (+19000)

I mentioned that Hollins Overs are my favorite player props in this Super Bowl due to his tendency to show up in big games as a reliable weapon for Drake Maye, and there’s a path for it to happen here after he came off injured reserve to lead the team in receiving in the AFC Championship by a wide margin. Maybe he won’t get MVP votes after his questionable wardrobe decisions at media day, but if this is a low-scoring game without a lot of offense and the Patriots win with Hollins being the leading receiver, he has a shot at winning MVP just like Julian Edelman did seven years ago for the Patriots. I don’t think he should be fourth among Patriots players to lead the game in receiving — in fact, I’d give him just as good a shot as the Patriot with the shortest odds, Stefon Diggs.

Exact score: Patriots 19, Seahawks 17 (+15000)

For our 60th pick on Super Bowl 60, we’re going to try to predict the exact score. If we don’t have a defensive touchdown in the game, I do expect this to come in well below the total and field goals to make up a majority of the scoring plays. Both these defensive fronts should be able to attack the opposing offensive lines and make life tough for two quarterbacks who are playing in their first Super Bowl, a stark departure from most of the matchups we’ve seen during the Patrick Mahomes era. I’ll take the Patriots to find a way once again to win in a game dictated by both defenses.