Rafael Devers trade: Three months later, blockbuster deal has both Giants, Red Sox calling themselves winners

Three months ago today, the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants agreed to the biggest and most surprising trade of Major League Baseball’s season. Generally, massive deals tend to be preceded by rumblings about a team’s interest, if nothing else. That wasn’t the case on June 15, when the Giants acquired All-Star slugger Rafael Devers as part of a five-player swap that included right-hander Jordan Hicks, lefty Kyle Harrison, and outfield prospect James Tibbs.

All things considered, three months isn’t a particularly long time in baseball, not in a sport that regularly hands out contracts that stretch beyond a decade at a time. Still, it’s fair to write that a lot has changed in the past 92 days. With that in mind, I’m here today to check in on how both sides have fared to date — and to offer an updated perspective on my original analysis from that fateful June night.

First, though, let’s reprint the trade in its whole:

• Giants received: DH/1B/3B Rafael Devers
• Red Sox received: LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Jordan Hicks, OF James Tibbs, and RHP Jose Bello

Now, onward.

Red Sox have enjoyed turnaround without Devers

The Red Sox are likely to nail down a playoff spot over the coming days. Consider that validation for top executive Craig Breslow, who predicted Boston would fare better after the trade despite shipping out one of his best players. The Red Sox were 37-36 when news broke. They’ve since gone 45-32.

The funny thing about the Red Sox’s turnaround is that they’ve salvaged their year without receiving much in the way of direct contributions from the Devers trade. Hicks has been the closest thing that return had to a constant big-league presence, and he hasn’t performed well as a member of the Red Sox. Otherwise? Harrison only just made his Boston debut, and neither Tibbs (traded again at the deadline for right-hander Dustin May) nor Bello has factored into the season. The Red Sox’s material gains from the Devers trade have been subtle.

Before straying into the weeds, let’s take a step back.

You undoubtedly remember the drama around Devers’ situation. If not, buckle in for a quick recap. The Red Sox asked Devers to move to DH back in the spring, after they signed Alex Bregman to man third base. Devers initially resisted before acquiescing to the team’s wishes. When first baseman Triston Casas went down to a season-ending injury in May, the Red Sox again requested Devers change positions, this time to pick up some of the slack at the cold corner. When he declined, even after owner John Henry intervened, it became clear it was time to move on.

Devers’ departure made Boston’s roster composition more workable. Instead of not having enough space for top prospect Roman Anthony, they were able to bring him up in a matter of days. He quickly became one of their most productive hitters (before being felled by an oblique strain in early September), essentially replacing Devers’ contributions. The Red Sox were able to bring in Nate Lowe late in the season to upgrade at first base. They’ve also been able to hide Masataka Yoshida’s poor fielding by installing him at DH (though they haven’t been able to shroud his poor hitting). During this time, they’ve had to weather injuries and extended absences from Bregman, outfielder Wilyer Abreu, and infielder Marcelo Mayer, as well as a disappointing showing from rookie infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell.

Again, this isn’t your standard case where a team improved after a trade because of the players they received in return, or because they were able to get back to full strength through health. That makes these Red Sox a blank slate of sorts for the wildest and most unverifiable explanations. The actual answer is probably the most boring: they were always going to play better — in part because they had underperformed their run differential (the sixth best in the AL) at the time of the trade and in part because they had a clear path toward internal improvement ahead of them.

That isn’t to suggest the Devers trade made no difference. Certainly, the deal helped Boston’s roster construction, and it likely made the air a little lighter in the clubhouse. But it probably wasn’t the driving force behind the turnaround.

As for the four players the Red Sox received, let’s run through how they’ve done in the past three months.

I expected Hicks to perform better in a pure relief role with the Red Sox. He hasn’t. Boston had him up his sinker usage and mothball his sweeper in favor of a slider. Those alterations have led to a decrease in strikeout rate, an increase in walk rate, and an ugly ERA. Hicks is under contract for another two seasons, so the Red Sox can justify continuing to tinker with his game. If they can’t find the right settings, they might have to cut bait sometime next summer.

Harrison, again, only just made his Boston big-league debut. His Triple-A numbers weren’t remarkable, but he made a number of changes to his arsenal after the trade. Among those: implementing a cutter and nursing a new changeup that features more sink and less spin. Harrison’s future is still to be determined, but I would assume he’ll enter next season in their big-league rotation.

As noted above, the Red Sox traded Tibbs to the Los Angeles Dodgers in July for Dustin May. While May impacted Boston’s big-league club — appearing six times and running a 78 ERA+ before suffering an injury — Tibbs has remained at the Double-A level all year. He’s performed better with the Dodgers, upping his contact rate and reducing his ground-ball rate. Stay tuned to see if Tibbs can develop into more than a platoon outfielder. If he does, the Red Sox may grow regretful about bailing on him so quickly.

Bello, the youngest member of the trade, made it out of the complex to pitch seven times in A-ball. The results weren’t great, but his youth (he’s 20) and promising slider mean it’s worth having more patience with him — even if his likeliest outcome is as a middle reliever or depth arm.

We already established that three months isn’t a long time in baseball. It’s certainly not a long time as far as this trade is concerned, because part of the appeal for the Red Sox was freeing themselves from Devers’ contract — and, specifically, the more than $230 million owed to him after this season. 

How the Red Sox use those savings is to be seen and could go a long way in determining if and by what degree this was a winning trade.

Giants’ late surge could overshadow woes

Whereas the best was yet to come for the Red Sox when they agreed to the Devers trade, the Giants were close to their season’s apex. They were a surprising 41-31 following a loss that night, leaving them just three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West race. Buster Posey, in his first season atop San Francisco’s baseball operations masthead, clearly wanted to take advantage of the hot start. Enter Devers, whose left-handed bat seemed certain to improve the Giants’ lineup.

Devers has indeed hit well since changing coasts. In 77 games to date, he’s posted a .242/.353/.456 slash line, good for a 132 OPS+ that sits a little above his career norm (129). He’s homered 16 times, and he’s even made defensive appearances, including 21 starts at first base, which leads to the assumption that his problem was with the Red Sox’s approach to him, not taking up the position itself. 

Granted, there’s been some negative aspects to Devers’ game, too. At the time of the trade, I noted that his in-zone contact rate had declined to a degree that suggested his strikeout rate would swell. That has happened, with him punching out nearly 30% of the time since. He deserves credit for learning first base, though it’s been evident that he’s still new to that part of the diamond. 

On the whole, though, the Giants have to be pleased with Devers … even if they haven’t always had reason to be thrilled with their overall play. The Giants enter Monday with a 75-74 record and a negative run differential since June 15. Yet the Giants could find themselves partaking in October all the same thanks to a recent tear, an easy remaining schedule, and the fact that the New York Mets — their top competition for the National League’s final wild card spot — have played even worse over that stretch.

Some of the biggest challenges of doing good transaction analysis are 1) understanding that everyone has different evaluations and priorities and 2) reconciling that with various potential outcomes.

In this instance, it seems clear that the Giants were placing an emphasis on the near future. I would guess that, if they do make the playoffs, they’ll feel validated in trading for Devers on the grounds that they wouldn’t have made it to the postseason without him in their lineup. No further questions asked. 

That’s fair from their perspective, but for others, the calculus will change if, say, Harrison develops into an above-average starter, or if Devers doesn’t age into his 30s as gracefully as the Giants hope — then, and perhaps only then, you’ll have to think about this trade’s opportunity cost, in terms of both the money spent and the prospects sent out.

For now, though, give Breslow and Posey credit: three months in, each side has reason to feel good about the deal they made.