NFL QB injuries: Ranking Browning, Wentz, others by chances of winning Week 3

Week 2 isn’t even finished, and teams are already in scramble mode or preparing to be in scramble mode at quarterback.

This week’s spate of injuries at the most important position ranges in seriousness. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow, for instance, is expected to miss at least three months due to a turf toe injury, a major downer considering Cincinnati is 2-0 for the first time since 2018. Jets quarterback Justin Fields is in the concussion protocol, and Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is dealing with a high ankle sprain that could sideline him multiple weeks. All of those injuries happened on Sunday. 

Then news came in Monday that Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels suffered a knee sprain on Thursday, and while head coach Dan Quinn classified his signal-caller as “day-to-day,” reports have listed his availability for Week 3 against the Raiders as “in doubt.”

All of these ailments came as the 49ers were already without Brock Purdy due to a turf toe injury suffered in Week 1. Though he is not expected to be sidelined as long as Burrow is, it is a significant enough injury that his status for Week 3 remains in doubt. The good news for San Francisco compared to its counterparts dealing with quarterback injuries is that it has already seen Mac Jones play well; he threw three touchdown passes in Week 2 against the Saints.

Here’s what the quarterback injury picture looks like across the NFL:

Notable NFL starting QB injuries

You won’t find any of those teams making excuses, though. You’ll hear lots of “next man up” and confidence in that next man up. So, which backup quarterbacks have the best chance of delivering a win in Week 3, if and when their number is called? Here’s our ranking, from worst chance to best.

5. Tyrod Taylor

Week 3 opponent: at Buccaneers

This is not meant as a slight to Taylor. The well-traveled veteran has carved out a solid career for himself ever since being drafted in the sixth round in 2011. In fact, his 28-28-1 career record as a starter shows his value as a backup at this point in his career. He’s been there, he’s done that, and he’s going to fill in respectably. Against the Bills in Week 2, he completed seven of 11 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown and ran three times for 21 yards. Of course, it all came late in a game his team lost 30-10, but it wasn’t awful.

Rather, this ranking is due to the Jets’ struggles on defense, the aspect that was expected to be a strength of this team. New York has allowed nine plays of 25-plus yards this season. Entering the Week 2 “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, only the Cowboys, Ravens and Patriots had allowed more. On the other side, the Buccaneers’ stout run defense led by Vita Vea figures to be a very tough matchup for the Jets’ run-heavy offense.

4. Carson Wentz

Week 3 opponent: vs. Bengals

Wentz has not defeated a team playing its starters since Week 6, 2022, an ugly 12-7 triumph over the Bears. Since then, he has started three times:

• Week 17, 2022 with the Washington Football Team: Three interceptions, 143 passing yards in a 24-10 loss to the Browns 
• Week 18, 2023 with Rams backups: Three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing), one interception, 163 passing yards, 56 rushing yards in a 21-20 win over the 49ers’ backups
• Week 18, 2024 with Chiefs backups: Zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, 98 passing yards in a 38-0 loss to the Broncos

Not exactly inspiring. The last time he was a starter — in 2022 with Washington — he had the third-highest negative play rate in the NFL.

In Week 3, he’ll be playing behind a battered offense that was already without left tackle Christian Darrisaw and wide receiver Jordan Addison and lost left tackle Justin Skule (concussion), center Ryan Kelly (concussion) and running back Aaron Jones (hamstring) in Week 2. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has turned plenty of journeymen quarterbacks into viable options, and he has another challenge on his hands with Wentz.

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Cody Benjamin

3. Marcus Mariota

Week 3 opponent: vs. Raiders

Mariota hasn’t started a game since he was with the Falcons in 2022. However, we did see glimpses of him last year with the Commanders. He threw for 205 yards and two scores in a Week 7 romp over the Panthers when Daniels suffered a rib injury early. In Week 18, he accounted for three touchdowns in Washington’s 23-19 win over the Cowboys after Washington, having already secured a playoff berth, benched Daniels at halftime. That included a game-winning touchdown toss to Terry McLaurin.

Though Mariota was successful in those cameos, he’d still face a tough task leading Washington to a Week 3 win over Las Vegas. The Commanders’ loss to the Packers exposed many flaws, including rookie right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. and a receiving corps struggling to get open downfield. Furthermore, Austin Ekeler — a key runner, pass-catcher and pass blocker — is done for the season with an Achilles tear.

2. Jake Browning

Week 3 opponent: at Vikings

A big part of this ranking is that we’ve seen this scenario before. In 2023, Browning threw for 324 yards, two touchdowns and an interception to beat a backup-led Vikings team (it was Nick Mullens for Minnesota), 27-24, in overtime.

Browning went 4-3 as a starter in 2023 and led Cincinnati to a 31-27 win over the Jaguars in Week 2, a game in which he accounted for three touchdowns but also threw three interceptions. I broke down Browning’s game Sunday after Burrow’s injury, and the gist is that while Browning isn’t close to Burrow from a creativity and play extension standpoint, he is an accurate passer willing to take some shots. When you have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, that might just be enough.

1. Mac Jones

Week 3 opponent: vs. Cardinals

Kyle Shanahan wanted to draft Jones in 2021 but instead ended up with Trey Lance. We all know how that worked out. Add in a Jimmy Garoppolo injury, and that led to Purdy, who went from Mr. Irrelevant to Super Bowl starter. Now, Jones is playing for Shanahan in a kind of full-circle moment, and in Week 2, we saw why he could be a good fit. My colleague Ryan Wilson explained this well, but it basically comes down to Jones’ processing, arm strength and accuracy.

Should Purdy be unavailable, Jones would face a Cardinals team that struggled to beat the Saints and Panthers and saw cornerbacks Will Johnson, Max Melton and Garrett Williams all suffer injuries in Week 2 against Carolina.