The American League West-leading Seattle Mariners seek their 10th consecutive victory when they visit the Kansas City Royals for the opener of their three-game series at 7:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Kauffman Stadium. Seattle (82-68), which owns a one-half game division lead over the Houston Astros (82-69), hasn’t lost since dropping the opener of a three-game road set against the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 5. The Mariners won the final two contests at Atlanta before returning home to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Angels, the latter series being a four-gamer.
The Royals (75-75), who are 6 1/2 games out of a wild card spot in the AL, lost six of seven contests before routing the Philadelphia Phillies 10-3 on the road on Sunday. The slump severely damaged Kansas City’s chances of making back-to-back playoff appearances following an eight-year drought.
Logan Gilbert (4-6, 3.54 ERA) takes the mound for the Mariners in search of his first win in four starts. The 28-year-old right-hander settled for no decisions after allowing just one run in each of his last two outings, but he racked up a total of 15 strikeouts across 10 2/3 innings. Gilbert fanned seven batters over 4 2/3 frames against the Royals on July 2 but did not factor in the decision.
Kansas City counters with Michael Wacha (9-11, 3.45), who is returning from a stint on the injured list due to a concussion. The 34-year-old righty notched the victory against the Minnesota Twins in his last outing, giving up just one run while recording five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Wacha punched out only one batter over five frames in a loss at Seattle on June 30.
Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts prop for Gilbert at 5.5 (Over -116, Under -113) but have not yet set one for Wacha. The SportsLine Inside the Lines team’s model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Gilbert’s Over 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value on Tuesday’s 16-game schedule, as there are three pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 5 stars. Here they are:
Michael King Over 4.5 strikeouts (-118) vs. Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
King returned from a knee injury last Tuesday to work five solid innings against the Cincinnati Reds, although he only registered two strikeouts. It was just the second start since May 18 for the 30-year-old right-hander, who posted back-to-back eight-strikeout performances prior to suffering a shoulder injury. King fanned seven batters over five frames in his turn versus the Mets last season. New York slugger Pete Alonso has whiffed in half of his eight career at-bats versus King.
Freddy Peralta Under 8.5 strikeouts (-147) vs. Angels (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts
Peralta matched his season high with nine strikeouts against the Texas Rangers in his last start, marking the third time he has gone Over his projected number for Tuesday this year. The 29-year-old Dominican righty has gone Under in six of his last outings in which Milwaukee was favored against an opponent with a losing record. Peralta did not record more than eight strikeouts in either of his two previous career starts versus the Angels.
A.J. Blubaugh Over 3.5 strikeouts (-127) vs. Rangers (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
Blubaugh is making just his second career start and first since Apr. 30, when he surrendered seven runs – two earned – over four innings in a loss to the Detroit Tigers in his major-league debut. However, the 25-year-old rookie right-hander did manage to strike out six batters in that outing. Blubaugh has registered 19 strikeouts across 18 frames in seven relief appearances since that start, including a 2 2/3-inning effort versus the Rangers on Sept. 5 in which he fanned three batters.
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