Which 2025 non-contenders can turn it around? Ranking 12 bad MLB teams by the odds they can compete in 2026

The 2025 Major League Baseball regular season is winding down and while we don’t know exactly which 12 teams will make the playoffs, we pretty much know for sure which are not going to make it. Those teams and their fan bases are already looking ahead to next season, so let’s briefly take that journey with them. 

Which non-contenders are best positioned to make the 2026 playoffs? 

For our purposes, we’re calling anyone within five games a playoff contender. That might be a bit generous, but it gives us teams like the Royals or Rays who haven’t officially been eliminated while excluding teams in the hunt like the Giants and Reds. Now we’re left with a tidy dozen non-contenders. 

Now, let’s rank these teams based on how good I think they’ll be next year. 

The Rockies remain the embarrassment of baseball. I’m sure they’ll win more games next season because it’s very tough to lose so many games in back-to-back seasons (ask the 2024-25 White Sox), but there’s very little hope for a big turnaround here. The only major injury to a should-be important player has been Kris Bryant and it’s hard to see him ever being a great player again at this point. The list of young players who have shown great promise is pretty short. It would certainly include Hunter Goodman and I think we’ve seen enough from Jordan Beck to be a little bullish. Pitching-wise, there’s just not much to like at all. I don’t have any faith in the front office to do much good in the offseason either.

The only players we can be sure are good moving toward next year are James Wood, C.J. Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, but Gore has a 7.07 ERA since the All-Star break and Wood has struck out in nearly 40% of his plate appearances in the second half. Maybe there will be leaps forward from players like Jacob Young and Dylan Crews, plus there seems to be promise in Daylen Lile, but those are anything but guaranteed. Josiah Gray will return from elbow surgery, but returns like this are always question marks. It’s possible for this team to spend big — I thought they should have swung big last offseason on Alex Bregman and pitching — but they still have an interim general manager. We just have no idea here. My hunch is they’ll be very bad again.

The Pirates have one of the best pitchers in the world in Paul Skenes. Jared Jones will be returning from elbow surgery. Bubba Chandler has shown enough upside to believe he could be very good all season in 2026 and Mitch Keller is a former All-Star still close enough to his prime to believe he’ll be strong. Braxton Ashcraft has shown good signs, too. Regardless of what happens in the offseason, I strongly believe the Pirates will have a very good rotation next year. But what else? The offense is terrible and there likely isn’t much help coming from the minors unless 19-year-old Konnor Griffin makes a gigantic leap and skips straight to the majors from Double-A, then manages to maintain his trajectory. I don’t have faith in the front office to do much to bolster the offense via trades or free agency, either. This ranking might seem low, but there’s only so much a good rotation can do on its own.

9. Chicago White Sox

After going 41-121 last season, the White Sox might not even lose 100 games this year. Another leap forward like that and they’d be a contender. Unfortunately, once you get into 60-win territory, it’s exponentially more difficult to add another 20 wins. There’s certainly reason for optimism in the rotation with Shane Smith, Davis Martin, Sean Burke and Yoendrys Gómez. Further, the work they did with Adrian Houser before trading him has to bode well for future, cheap additions by the front office. There is some hope on offense, too, with the likes of Chase Meidroth, Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery leading the way. I’m not sure they’re ready to contend just yet, but I wouldn’t be shocked. Also, keep in mind that while ownership continues to be a problem and stand in the way, the White Sox technically could make big splashes in free agency. 

There’s still enough talent here for the Twins to be ranked far higher than this and it’s possible I’m wrong, but I feel like the trade deadline was ripping off of the bandage and the Twins’ front office is set to complete the job in the offseason. That is to say that I think it’s entirely possible the Twins tear this thing down to the studs and rebuild. That would mean trades of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and maybe even Bailey Ober. I’m sure they’ll try to convince Byron Buxton to accept a deal, but he sure seems set on sticking around. I actually thought about putting the White Sox higher. I do not believe the Twins will be good next year at all. 

There’s always the chance they go on a big spending spree and it actually works this time.

(pause for laughter)

For real, though, Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto have shown promise and neither has hit their 25th birthday yet. Jo Adell is having a nice breakout year (stop me if you’ve heard that one before). Mike Trout is still capable of a big season, as is Taylor Ward. Did Yoán Moncada get fixed? 

They have the makings of a foundation of a good team and the front office would just need to have a big offseason. I don’t think it’ll happen, but there’s a chance. 

You can squint your way to the Marlins being very good and it starts with the rotation. Sandy Alcantara will have a full season under his belt since returning from Tommy John surgery and could form a trio of aces with leaps forward from Edward Cabrera and Eury Pérez — not to mention the chance that Ryan Weathers is good and Max Meyer comes back strong from hip surgery. You’re talking about a potential top 5 rotation if everything hits. Star outfielder Kyle Stowers could use some help on offense and perhaps Connor Norby is in for a breakout season. Jakob Marsee looks the part so far and Agustín Ramírez has shown good power. Otto López and Xavier Edwards form a nice double-play combo. A couple savvy front office moves along with help from a prospect like catcher Joe Mack and the Marlins would be in business. 

Can the A’s convince some good free agent pitchers to sign up for playing in Sacramento the way they did Luis Severino (who has now complained about pitching in Sactown)? They need some help around promising youngster Luis Morales. 

I bring this up because there’s a lot to like about the A’s offense. Nick Kurtz looks like he’ll be a full-fledged star as early as next season and he’s only 22 years old. Shea Langeliers is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. Brent Rooker is a bona fide middle-of-the-order force. Tyler Soderstrom is having a good offensive season and so is rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson. Lawrence Butler has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but he was great last year and is only 24. Again, there’s so much to like here. The A’s just need to support the position players with a good pitching staff. 

4. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays hung around in contention a long time this season despite having it ruined with the lack of a real, MLB-caliber home ballpark. That stretch of road games stacked through the middle of the summer had a big hand in ruining their run toward the playoffs. There’s a good nucleus in place, too, with Junior Caminero already establishing himself as a star. 

Just based on history with this ownership group, I’ll guess that the Rays do not pick up options on Yandy Díaz, Pete Fairbanks or Brandon Lowe, so all will need to be replaced. 

My expectation is the front office will once again still find a way to keep this team competitive. They always seem to hang around in contention even when the personnel on the field doesn’t seem great. They were 80-82 last year, are headed for something similar this year and I’ll predict it’s just about the same again next year. That means if they’re a true-talent 80-win team and instead catch a series of breaks, they’ll win a wild card spot.

Given that the Orioles were awesome two years ago, were very good last year and will have most of the same core still around next year, a lot of people will be expecting the O’s to bounce back. It’s certainly possible. The Adley Rutschman-Gunnar Henderson-Jordan Westburg core remains intact and there’s reason to be excited about Jackson Holliday, Jeremiah Jackson and Samuel Basallo as well. Perhaps Coby Mayo turns it on next year. There will continue to be questions about the rotation, but Trevor Rogers appears to have fully broken through as a frontline starter and Kyle Bradish should be all-systems-go as he’s now a handful of starts past his return from Tommy John surgery. Is pitching prospect Trey Gibson ready to step in? I’ve pretty much lost hope in Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin hits free agency, so we’ll see how Mike Elias and his front office attack the rotation in the offseason. There’s decent hope that this team makes it back to the playoffs in 2026. 

2. Kansas City Royals 

Given the wizardry of pitching coach Brian Sweeney, the Royals have an embarrassment of riches in the rotation once they get some injury returns. Trade deadline acquisitions Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert have shown promise while Noah Cameron looks legit. Cole Ragans has Cy Young potential. Kris Bubic was having a breakout season before going down with injury. Veterans Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo can still be effective too. Maybe the Royals swing a trade from this depth to help the offense? 

Bobby Witt Jr. is a top-level franchise centerpiece. Vinnie Pasquantino has grown into a legit slugger. Maikel Garcia is an outstanding third baseman. Will they bring Mike Yastrzemski back? He’s a free agent and has been productive since his acquisition. They definitely could use more offense from their outfielders next year, but, again, maybe there’s a trade from the starting pitching depth to help there. Maybe Jac Caglianone figures things out. There’s enough here to believe this is a good or even great team next year if things break right.  

The bullpen should be very good again, too. 

I like the Royals for next season. Just not as much as the … 

Chris Sale is showing no signs of slowing down and Spencer Strider will likely be much improved in his second season post-surgery. That’s a pair of aces to start. Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach will be back. Hurston Waldrep has shown good promise.

The following players, who have been stars before or still are, are under contract and either are in their primes or close enough to it that we could expect great things: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar. Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy give the Braves a great catching duo. There are certainly concerns there, notably with Olson seemingly in his decline while Albies and Harris have been more bad than good this season, but there’s big upside. 

The Braves have money too, so they could make a splash on the market (closer Raisel Iglesias and designated hitter Marcell Ozuna are free agents and will need to be replaced). 

So many things, so many things, went wrong this season, but the window of contention is still open. The front office will be aggressive in trying to win with this Acuña-Olson-Riley core. The Braves will once again be a decent bet to make the playoffs and maybe even win the NL East.