NFL Week 16 playoff picture: Panthers lead NFC South; AFC wild cards hold

Week 16 is one of the highest-leverage weeks of the 2025 NFL season, and there have already been results with huge playoff implications. 

Leading up to Sunday’s action, there was plenty of jockeying, particularly in the NFC. The Seahawks beat the Rams to move atop the division and the NFC on Thursday night, and Saturday’s action saw the Philadelphia Eagles clinch the NFC East with a win over the Commanders, while the Chicago Bears pulled off a comeback for the ages and took control of the NFC North with an overtime victory over the Green Bay Packers. 

That was quite the appetizer for the full Sunday slate, which has had its fair share of drama as well. In the early window, the Carolina Panthers notched a key win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to move into first place in the NFC South. Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills escaped with a win in Cleveland to keep their hopes of winning the AFC East alive.

And we’re just getting started, as there are still plenty of matchups that carry playoff implications on deck. 

Week 16’s highest-leverage games (playoff odds swing)

Playoff odds reflect each team’s chances with a win vs. a loss, per SportsLine.

Steelers at Lions

• Steelers: 82% → 59%
• Lions: 44% → 15%

Swing: 62% (33% + 29%)

49ers at Colts

• 49ers: 100% → 94%
• Colts: 30% → 16%

Swing: 20% (6% + 14%)

On “Sunday Night Football,” the Patriots (11-3) can tighten their grip on the top of the AFC East against the Ravens (7-7) — a game the Ravens desperately need to keep pace with the AFC North-leading Steelers. 

As we continue to monitor the latest movements in the playoff standings, here is an up-to-date look at where things stand after the 1 p.m. ET window. 

AFC standings

1. x-Denver Broncos (12-2)
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
6. Buffalo Bills (11-4)
7. Houston Texans (9-5)

x-clinched playoff berth

1. Denver Broncos (12-2)

Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers

After winning their 11th straight game thanks to a 34-26 victory against the Green Bay Packers, the Broncos are 12-2 and have officially clinched a playoff berth. They have a solid cushion in the AFC West, and now have even more breathing room in their pursuit of the No. 1 seed thanks to Buffalo defeating the Patriots. 

2. New England Patriots (11-3)

Remaining schedule: at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins

The Patriots had an opportunity to clinch the AFC East with a win over Buffalo on Sunday, but blew a 21-point lead in Week 15 to snap their winning streak. New England remains in first place in the division, but the Bills are lurking. 

Beyond Buffalo, the loss also doesn’t help the Patriots in their pursuit of Denver for the No. 1 seed.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)

Remaining schedule: at Broncos, at Colts, vs. Titans

The Jaguars have now won five straight games following a blowout victory against the New York Jets. That helps keep them in first place in the AFC South over the surging Houston Texans.  

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)

Remaining schedule: at Lions, at Browns, vs. Ravens

The Steelers remain in sole possession of first place in the AFC North after defeating the Dolphins on “Monday Night Football,” but there’s still a lot to be determined in this division. It could come down to their Week 18 matchup in Pittsburgh.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)

Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Broncos

The Chargers have now won four straight games after taking down the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday. Currently, they are the top wild card in the AFC, but have some stiff competition behind them. That includes the Houston Texans, who they’ll see next week at SoFi Stadium. 

6. Buffalo Bills (11-4)

Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

It was a bit closer than they may have liked, but the Bills came away with a win in Cleveland to push them to 11-4 on the season. That keeps them on the heels of the Patriots in the AFC East race and firmly in wild card position. Week 16 was the final time Buffalo will be on the road during the 2025 regular season, as they’ll wrap up the year at Highmark Stadium. 

7. Houston Texans (9-5)

Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, at Chargers, vs. Colts

After starting the year 0-3, the Texans have clawed back into the playoff picture as the No. 7 seed and are coming off an impressive win over the Cardinals at home in Week 15. They’ve now won six straight and are on the heels of the Jaguars in the AFC South, so there is room for this climb to go even higher.

In the hunt

The Colts (8-6) are mathematically still in the hunt, but have a difficult road forward, especially after being unable to pull off the upset in Seattle in Week 15. 

The team that may have the best chance of this group to make the postseason is the Ravens (7-7), especially after shutting out the Bengals to move back to .500 on the year. That keeps them one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North with one more head-to-head still to go in the regular-season finale.

NFC standings

1. x-Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
2. Chicago Bears (11-4)
3. y-Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
4. Carolina Panthers (8-7)
5. x-Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)

x-clinched playoff berth; y-clinched division  

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at 49ers

Seattle pulled off an incredible, come-from-behind win over the Rams on “Thursday Night Football,” elevating itself to the No. 1 seed in the conference in the process. If the Seahawks win out against the Panthers and Niners, they will clinch the top spot in the NFC and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. 

2. Chicago Bears (11-4)

Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions

The Bears have notched double-digit wins this season after soundly beating the Cleveland Browns at Soldier Field in Week 15, and they remain in the hunt for the NFC’s No. 1 seed following a stunning overtime comeback against the Packers on Saturday night.

Chicago kicked a field goal with two minutes remaining, recovered the onside kick, scored the game-tying touchdown on fourth down with 24 seconds left — and then walked it off in overtime when Caleb Williams hit DJ Moore for the winning score.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)

Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Commanders

Philadelphia punched its playoff ticket on Saturday night with a commanding victory over the Washington Commanders. The defending Super Bowl champions become the first team to win back-to-back NFC East crowns since 2004.

The Eagles’ win also eliminated the Cowboys from playoff contention, marking the second straight season they’ll miss the postseason.

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7)

Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers

Carolina has jumped up to the No. 4 seed after leaping over the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead thanks to a head-to-head victory in Week 16. While this does vault the Panthers atop the division for the moment, there’s still plenty that can happen between now and the end of the regular season, especially with another matchup on deck for Week 18 in Tampa. 

5. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)

Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals

The Rams are still a playoff lock thanks to their win in Week 15, but their chances of winning the NFC West and claiming the No. 1 seed in the conference were dramatically reduced by their loss to the Seahawks on Thursday night. They need Seattle to lose at least one more game, but also can’t have the 49ers win out. Otherwise, San Francisco would be the top seed in the conference by virtue of having the best division record among the three teams. 

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks

The Niners are quietly lurking in the NFC playoff race. Despite being the No. 6 seed, San Francisco is 10-4 and ready to pounce if their division rivals slip up down the stretch. The team split the head-to-head series with the Rams, but does currently have the advantage over Seattle, which the 49ers face again in Week 18. 

Following L.A.’s loss to Seattle on Thursday night, the Niners control their own destiny in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference. If they win out, they get the top spot.

7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)

Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Vikings

Green Bay saw a considerable fall from grace entering Week 16. After coming into Week 15 as the No. 2 seed and leading the NFC North, the Packers dropped all the way to the No. 7 seed following a loss to the Denver Broncos. That defeat allowed Chicago to jump ahead of Green Bay for first place in the division.

Things got even worse Saturday night. Not only did Green Bay give up a double-digit lead in the final two minutes — eventually falling in overtime to the Bears — but it also lost Jordan Love to a concussion.

Luckily for the Packers, they hold the tiebreaker over the Lions, their primary competition for a playoff spot, after sweeping Detroit earlier this season. Still, with games remaining against the Ravens and Vikings, it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Green Bay will reach the postseason.

In the hunt

The Lions (8-6) have their backs against the wall a bit after falling to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15. That defeat continues to keep them on the outside looking in on the playoff picture as the No. 8 seed and the No. 3 team in the NFC North. They aren’t out of the race quite yet, but they certainly need to win out and get some help along the way. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) have fallen out of first place in the NFC South after falling to the Panthers on Sunday. The only path for Baker Mayfield and Co. to make the playoffs at this point is to win the division, so there is zero margin for error over these final two weeks. They’ll need to take care of business next week in Miami against the Dolphins before hosting the Panthers in what could be a win-and-in scenario in Week 18.