NFL playoff overreactions for divisional round: C.J. Stroud cost himself millions?

The divisional round is in the books, and the NFL’s final four is set. It’ll be the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks duking it out in the NFC Championship, while the New England Patriots will visit the Denver Broncos next Sunday for the AFC Championship. These matchups crystallized after another bonkers weekend of NFL playoff action that saw multiple overtime games and high drama throughout. 

Naturally, when the games are of this magnitude, they leave a pretty big impression. For instance, C.J. Stroud throwing four interceptions in a playoff loss to the New England Patriots is going to be branded on his résumé more than had that happened in some random game over the regular season. The same can be said for Josh Allen, who has his reputation dinged after missing a golden opportunity for his first trip to the Super Bowl with Buffalo this postseason after falling to Denver.  

Those are some storylines that are legitimate narratives now out in the ether.  Then, there are some storylines that don’t really carry much weight and are overblown. Just as we did for Day 1 of the divisional round, we’re going to dive into some of the big-picture talking points that are coming out of the final day of this round below. To read the overreactions from Day 1, you can check them out here. 

C.J. Stroud cost himself millions

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

It was a downright terrible day for C.J. Stroud. The Houston Texans quarterback looked lost throughout his team’s 28-16 loss to the New England Patriots, and tossed four interceptions in the losing effort. Stroud was erratic with the ball for the bulk of the game and completed just 45.4% of his passes and finished with a 28.0 passer rating. 

When you factor in his poor showing over Wild Card Weekend against Pittsburgh, Stroud became the first player in NFL playoff history with five-plus interceptions and five-plus fumbles in a postseason. Not great. 

This disastrous postseason comes at a bad time for Stroud, who is extension-eligible this offseason. The knee-jerk reaction to this performance would be that the Texans should not sign Stroud to an extension and/or not ink him to a deal that pays him around $55 million annually with the upper-echelon quarterbacks. 

That won’t happen, however. In all likelihood, the Texans are going to sign Stroud to a lucrative extension this offseason that makes him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. Why? Because they have no other choice. It’s either pay Stroud or reset at the position entirely. While he hasn’t given them a ton of confidence that he’ll live up to his eventual monster extension, they’ll inevitably slide it across the table for him to sign. 

Bears comeback magic won’t carry over into 2026

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Chicago Bears had one last rabbit to pull out of their hat, with Caleb Williams throwing a jaw-dropping 14-yard touchdown to Cole Kmet on a fourth-and-4 attempt to help send their divisional round matchup with the Rams to overtime. While L.A. was able to edge out the win in overtime, it was a herculean effort from Williams to force the extra period. 

As ridiculous as that throw was, it was something we’ve come to expect from Williams and the Bears this season. In all, the franchise had seven wins this season when down in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, which is an NFL record (including playoffs). They also had an NFL-high eight wins by fewer than seven points this season (including playoffs). 

You can call it a clutch gene, or you can call it luck that the ball bounced their way that many times. The one thing that you can definitely call it, however, is unsustainable. Chicago can’t expect this late-game magic to carry over into 2026 and will need to revamp the roster this offseason in order to pull out a win without needing to pull off miracles. 

Use the Kansas City Chiefs as a cautionary tale. They were 11-0 in one-score games during the 2024 regular season. The following year, in 2025, they were 1-9 in one-score games. 

Patriots can overcome Drake Maye’s turnovers

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Lost in C.J. Stroud’s four-interception day was that Drake Maye was also a little too loose with the football, albeit in the winning effort.

In the win over Houston, Maye had four fumbles (two lost) and an interception. In the prior round against the Chargers, Maye also had protection issues, fumbling twice (one lost) and another pick. So, over the course of two playoff games this postseason, Maye has six fumbles (three lost) and two interceptions. Part of those turnovers is due to some protection issues along the left side of the offensive line, and facing some top-tier pass rushers, but Maye’s awareness in the pocket has been lacking as well. 

Just because the Patriots have overcome them to this point doesn’t mean that’ll continue as they push deeper into the playoffs. Most view New England as a heavy favorite over the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship, particularly after Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury, and backup Jarrett Stidham is now slated to start. One way to give Stidham and the Broncos life, however, is handing the ball over, so Maye will need to tighten it up if he wants to advance to and win the Super Bowl. 

Sean McVay coached poorly despite Rams win

Overreaction or reality: Reality

When we talk about the best coaches in the NFL, it doesn’t take long before Sean McVay comes up in the conversation, and for good reason. The Rams coach has routinely kept his team competitive and just earned his 10th career playoff win. That said, this latest showing from McVay will not go on the highlight reel. Despite coming out with the win, McVay had a poor coaching effort on Sunday night, making several head-scratching decisions.

In the first half, he failed to properly attack a Bears run defense that allowed 134.5 yards per game during the regular season (sixth-most in the league). In all, L.A. ran the football just seven times over the first two quarters. McVay changed his tune over the second half and overtime (24 rushing attempts), but then leaned a little too heavily on the ground attack. 

Specifically, he elected to run just before the two-minute warning with his team up 17-10. There was 2:07 on the game clock, and the Rams were looking at a third-and-10 situation. Because the cock was going to stop anyway, McVay should’ve put the ball in the air to try and convert and win the game in regulation. 

Then, McVay ran it three-straight times on the opening possession of overtime, which led to a three-and-out. Had Los Angeles’ defense not picked off Caleb Williams to help set up the game-winning field goal, Chicago could’ve won the game with Matthew Stafford, the MVP favorite, not attempting a pass in overtime. 

“Offensively, man, I did not do a very good job for our group tonight, but I thought our guys were able to overcome it,” McVay told reporters postgame.