AFC and NFC championship picks and predictions, plus NFL Honors finalists

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

There are only three games left in the NFL season and two of them will be going down on Sunday with the AFC Championship and NFC title game both happening. Since this is our last newsletter of the week, we will be making some predictions about both of those games today. 

• Broncos over Patriots? We’ve got several people who think that upset is going to happen (Spoiler alert: Pete Prisco is one of them). 
• Rams over Seahawks? Apparently, almost everyone I work with thinks that upset is going to happen. 

Not only are we going to break down the conference title games, but we’re also going to take a look at the finalists for every major award that’s being handed out, from MVP to Coach of the Year, and more.

As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Staff predictions for the AFC and NFC championship games 

With two big games on the schedule for Sunday, I thought we should do an extra special version of our weekly picks, so that’s what we’re going to do today. I tracked down every NFL writer I could find here at CBS Sports and demanded that they give me a pick for both games. 

What that means is that you’re going to get an AFC title pick and an NFC Championship pick from 12 different experts. Let’s get to them, starting in the AFC. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
Pete Prisco: Broncos 23-21 over Patriots (Prisco’s full picks here)
Tyler Sullivan: Patriots 24-17 over Broncos (Sullivan’s full picks here)
John Breech: Patriots 20-17 over Broncos (Breech’s full picks here)
Jared Dubin: Patriots 21-10 over Broncos (Dubin’s full picks here)
Jordan Dajani: Patriots 23-17 over Broncos (Dajani’s full picks here)
Kyle Stackpole: Broncos 24-21 over Patriots
Garrett Podell: Patriots 27-13 over Broncos
Bryan DeArdo: Patriots 20-10 over Broncos
J.P. Acosta: Patriots 24-17 over Broncos
Zach Pereles: Patriots 20-17 over Broncos
Joel Corry: Patriots 20-17 over Broncos
Mike Renner: Patriots 13-10 over Broncos

Of our 12 writers, only TWO are taking the Broncos. And no, Prisco has not gone crazy. Here’s the partial explanation for his pick: “It would be easy to pick the Pats here based on Jarrett Stidham playing. But I think the Denver players will elevate their games around him and Sean Payton will have a big day calling the game for him. I think Denver’s defense will get the best of the Pats offense. Denver goes to the Super Bowl.” You can read Prisco’s full pick here. 

We have three writers who are expecting the Patriots to win by double digits. If you want to read each writer’s full explanation for their AFC title game pick, we’ve got that here. 

Alright, let’s get to the NFC title game. In a surprise, our picks for this game are almost as lopsided as the AFC title game. 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
Pete Prisco: Seahawks 23-17 over Rams
Tyler Sullivan: Seahawks 30-20 over Rams
Joel Corry: Seahawks 23-20 over Rams
John Breech: Rams 30-23 over Seahawks
Jared Dubin: Rams 23-20 over Seahawks
Jordan Dajani: Rams 30-27 over Seahawks
Kyle Stackpole: Seahawks 20-17 over Rams
Garrett Podell: Rams 27-24 over Seahawks
Bryan DeArdo: Rams 27-20 over Seahawks
J.P. Acosta: Rams 28-24 over Seahawks
Zach Pereles: Rams 28-27 over Seahawks
Mike Renner: Rams 31-24 over Seahawks

The Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points and they’re at home, but we still have eight of our 12 experts taking the Rams. So why is everyone picking against Seattle? I guess I’ll serve as the official spokesman for people taking the Rams. 

My take: The Seahawks definitely have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but the last time I saw them on the field against the Rams, Matthew Stafford went off for 457 yards and three touchdowns, and he did that even though he didn’t have Davante Adams in the lineup. Adams led the team in touchdown catches, but he didn’t play in the Rams’ wild Week 16 loss to Seattle. I think Stafford goes off again and leads L.A. to the Super Bowl. I also think Sam Darnold turns the ball over at least once and it makes a huge difference in the game. 

Tyler Sullivan, who has the Seahawks winning by 10, is the only one of us who doesn’t think this will be a one-score game. If you want to read each writer’s explanation for their NFC title game pick, you can do that here. 

2. AFC and NFC title games: Breaking down who has the edge at each position  

If you’re wondering who has the edge in the two games being played this weekend, don’t worry, we have you covered. Zach Pereles went through EVERY position group in both games to figure out who has the edge going into Sunday. 

Let’s take a look at two of his positional edges from each game. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Wide receiver edge: Patriots
Zach’s take: Stefon Diggs has been outstanding this season, and his touchdown catch last week was one of the best this season. So, too, was Kayshon Boutte’s one-handed snag against Houston. Diggs is a route-running master, Boutte is a big play waiting to happen, DeMario Douglas is elusive, and Kyle Williams can stretch the field. Courtland Sutton has had a terrific season for Denver, but both Troy Franklin (hamstring) and Pat Bryant (concussion) are dealing with injuries suffered last week.

Running back edge: Patriots
Zach’s take: Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly been a significant boost for the Patriots with 209 yards from scrimmage in two playoff games after scoring six touchdowns over his final three games of the regular season. New England also mixes in TreVeyon Henderson, who is capable of breaking a big play any time. Denver hasn’t had consistent success on the ground since J.K. Dobbins went down with what was thought to be a season-ending foot injury, but he could return this weekend now that the Broncos have extended their season. If not, it’ll be a heavy dose of Harvey, with McLaughlin and Badie spelling him.

If you want to see who has the edge at every position group in the AFC title game, be sure to check out Zach’s full story here. We also came up with some X factors that could decide the game and you can check those out here. 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Quarterback edge: Rams
Zach’s take: This is a clear-cut advantage for the Rams. Stafford is a potential MVP, while Darnold’s play has been a rollercoaster for the past several months. Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns in Week 16 against Seattle in what will surely go down as a top MVP moment if he does indeed win the award (even though he lost that game). Darnold threw four interceptions in the team’s first meeting and, though he came up clutch in the second meeting, was up-and-down in that contest as well.

Cornerback edge: Seahawks
Zach’s take: The difference between these two units might be the largest of any so far. Devon Witherspoon is an All-Pro, Josh Jobe has been terrific, Tariq Woolen is one of the most physically gifted corners in the NFL, and Nick Emmanwori is the ultimate chess piece for McDonald.

For a look at who has the edge at each position group in the NFC, you can check out our full list here. For a look at the players who might end up being an X factor in the NFC Championship game, be sure to check out our story on that here. 

3. Ranking the best possible Super Bowl matchups: Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye takes the top spot

With just four teams left, that means there are only four Super Bowl matchups that are still possible, so we thought we would rank each of those four games based on which one we want to see the most. 

I was put in charge of these rankings, which means there’s 100% chance that you will agree with them. 

1. Rams vs. Patriots. Not only would we get a duel between the two MVP front-runners (Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye), but this game would also give us two of the smartest head coaches going head to head, with offensive genius Sean McVay battling wits with defensive mastermind Mike Vrabel. If this Super Bowl happened, it would mark the third time the Rams and Patriots have met in the big game, tying the Cowboys-Steelers as the only other Super Bowl matchup to have happened three times. The Patriots’ first Super Bowl win over the Rams kick-started their dynasty in 2001, with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Their second win over the Rams was the unofficial end of that dynasty in 2018. Now, in a cosmic twist, Vrabel and Maye could kick-start their own dynasty with a win over the Rams. 

2. Seahawks vs. Patriots. One big reason why this game would be so attractive is that it would give us an unbelievable matchup on both sides of the ball. For one, we’d get to see the AFC’s highest-scoring offense going up against a Seahawks defense that gave up the fewest points in the NFL this year. Not only that, but we’d get to see the NFL’s third-highest scoring offense in Seattle going up against a Patriots defense that surrendered the fourth-fewest points. A great AFC offense vs. a great NFC defense? A great AFC defense vs. a great NFC offense? You’d never be able to take your eyes off the game.

3. Rams vs. Broncos. This game would pit the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (Rams) against a Broncos defense that surrendered the third-fewest points in the NFL this year. This game would also give us one very interesting storyline: Sean McVay and Sean Payton coaching against each other in a postseason game for the first time since McVay’s Rams beat Payton’s Saints in the 2018 NFC title game, which featured arguably the most controversial pass interference no-call in NFL history. I’m guessing we would see the replay of that no-call at least 400 times during Super Bowl week.

4. Seahawks vs. Broncos. This game would give us Jarrett Stidham going up against the best defense in the NFL and I’m pretty sure we all know how that would turn out. If it did turn into a blowout, that would make sense, because that always seems to happen when the two top seeds face each other in the Super Bowl. Over the past 50 years, the AFC’s top seed and the NFC’s top seed have faced each other in the Super Bowl 14 times, and for the most part, those games have turned into blowouts. Out of those 14 games, 10 have been decided by double digits, including Super Bowl XLVIII, when the Seahawks smashed the Broncos 43-8.

I wrote over 1,700 words to justify my rankings and if you want to check out every single one of those words, you can do that here. 

4. Bills owner Terry Pegula’s bizarre press conference: Four things to know 

Bills owner Terry Pegula took part in a rare press conference on Wednesday and things definitely got interesting. After the Bills made the surprising decision to fire Sean McDermott on Monday, Pegula wanted to take questions so he could explain why he decided to dump his head coach. 

Here are four things to know: 

• Why Pegula fired McDermott. Apparently, the Bills’ owner made the decision to get rid of McDermott shortly after the team’s 33-30 overtime loss to Denver on Saturday. “My decision to bring in a new coach was based on the results of our game in Denver,” the Bills owner said, via NYup.com. “I want to take you in the locker room after that game. I looked around, first thing I noticed was our quarterback with his head down, crying. I looked at all the other players. I looked at their faces and our coaches.”
• Explanation for why general manager Brandon Beane got promoted. With the success of Beane and McDermott being so intertwined over the past nine years, you might be wondering why one guy got fired and the other guy got promoted. During his press conference, Pegula was asked if Beane had made some sort of ‘power play’ to save his job. “I’m the kind of guy, if I sense you’re on a power play, you’re out,” Pegula said. “I don’t like power play people. We have an organization that we work together, but any sense at all that he was on a power play, [Beane] would have been gone because that’s not my type of person.”
• Pegula defends Beane. If you look at the Bills, the biggest reason it felt like they couldn’t get over the Super Bowl hump is that the roster wasn’t good enough and that’s because of Beane. However, Pegula defended his general manager. “Does anyone know what the numbers 5-2-3, 2-2-2-6 represent? I’m asking a question. No? That’s our seeding over the last seven years in the playoffs. 5-2-3, 2-2-2-6. An organization doesn’t carry that kind of record without being a great organization and without having great players.” Beane’s track record is so questionable that a former Super Bowl-winning coach (Bruce Arians) was shocked that the team kept him over McDermott (you can read Arians’ comments here). 
• Keon Coleman gets thrown under the bus. During a conversation about Beane’s inability to build the roster, Coleman’s name came up. The 2024 second-round pick hasn’t lived up to the hype, and according to Pegula, you can’t blame Beane for that because it was the coaching staff that wanted him. “The coaching staff pushed to draft Keon [Coleman],” Pegula said. “I’m not saying Brandon wouldn’t have drafted him, but he wasn’t his next choice. That was Brandon being a team player and taking advice of his coaching staff who felt strongly about the player. He’s taken, for some reason, heat over it, and not saying a word about it. I’m here to tell you the true story.” He’s taking heat because he took all the credit for a pick during an interview held shortly after the 2024 draft (You can see the video here). You can also read more about the Coleman situation here. 

With Beane running the show, it will be interesting to see who the Bills hire as their new coach. A coaching candidate may not want to work under Beane, knowing he’s willing to throw people under the bus, which will certainly create an interesting dynamic in the interview process. 

5. NFL Honors: Finalists named for all awards, from MVP to Coach of the Year

In just two weeks, the NFL will hand out all its 2025 season awards at the league’s annual “NFL Honors” show on Feb. 5 in San Francisco. During the event, hosted by Jon Hamm, we’ll find out who won each award, from MVP to Coach of the Year to both Rookie of the Year awards and more. 

The Associated Press handles the voting for each award and the AP released the finalists in each category on Thursday. One thing to keep in mind with these awards is that they’re voted on at the end of the regular season, so how a player performs in the postseason has no impact on who wins each award. 

With that in mind, let’s check out some of the finalists. 

MVP

Breech’s prediction: Matthew Stafford

Coach of the Year

• Bears coach Ben Johnson 
• Jaguars coach Liam Coen 
• Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald 
• 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan 
• Patriots coach Mike Vrabel

Breech’s prediction: Mike Vrabel 

Offensive Player of the Year

Breech’s prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Defensive Player of the Year

Breech’s prediction: Myles Garrett 

You can see the full list of finalists for every award here. And remember, all of these awards were voted on at the end of the regular season, so the playoffs have no impact on who wins any of these awards. 

6. Extra points: 49ers will look into electrical substation conspiracy theory

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

• 49ers to investigate conspiracy theory. The 49ers practice field is located near an electrical substation and there’s been some speculation that this might be why the team is dealing with so many injuries. Instead of ignoring that rumor, general manager John Lynch said the team is actually going to investigate that theory. “Because it deals with allegedly the health and safety of our players, I think you have to look into everything,” Lynch said Wednesday. You can read more about this situation here. 
• Chiefs bring back Eric Bieniemy. The former Chiefs offensive coordinator is returning to Kansas City. Bieniemy was with the team from 2013 through 2022, but then left in 2023 to take the offensive coordinator job with the Commanders, a spot where he could call plays. Bieniemy left that job after one year and ended up at UCLA in 2024. He then spent the 2025 season with Ben Johnson and the Bears. Now, he’s returning to Kansas City and we’ve got the details here. 
• Falcons offensive coordinator heading to Tampa Bay. With Kevin Stefanski getting hired in Atlanta, that meant Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was likely going to need a new job and he found one on Thursday. Robinson is finalizing a deal to become the OC in Tampa Bay, according to ESPN. With Baker Mayfield calling out Stefanski this week and Robinson now leaving Atlanta for Tampa Bay, this definitely adds some spice to the Falcons-Buccaneers rivalry (And let’s not forget, the Falcons knocked the Bucs out of the playoffs by beating the Saints in Week 18). 
• Bills-Broncos sets Saturday TV record for an NFL playoff game. The Broncos’ overtime win over Buffalo was the most-watched Saturday game in NFL history. The CBS game averaged 39.6 million viewers and it peaked in overtime with 51.23 million people watching. It was the most-watched Saturday sporting event on any network since the 1994 Olympics, which was also on CBS. 
• NFL Scouting Combine staying in Indy through at least 2028. The NFL combine has been held in Indianapolis since 1987 and it will be staying there for at least two more years. The NFL reached a deal to hold the combine in Indy through the 2028 season. The current contract was set to expire after the 2026 combine and there had been talk that the league might look to move the event, but instead, it will be staying put for now.