NFL power ratings: Super Bowl spread projection, picks

Two hundred eighty-four games in the books, one to go. Super Bowl 2026 is set with the AFC champion New England Patriots up against the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks, and the early odds don’t look good for Drake Maye and Co. The opening line of Seahawks -3.5 was quickly bet up on Sunday evening, with the spread ranging anywhere from Seahawks -4.5 to -5.5 by Monday morning.

Last week it was the Patriots who saw early action to drive up their spread in the AFC Championship against the backup-QB-led Broncos, with the number getting as high as Patriots -6 before coming back down to -4.5 for much of the week, then getting bet down to -3.5 prior to kickoff. The Patriots battled through a second-half blizzard to come away with a 10-7 win, with Broncos ATS and the Under easily cashing. We pegged the correct spread at Patriots -2.5 going into the game.

In the other semifinal, Sam Darnold answered whatever questions were left about his ability to perform on the big stage, putting together the game of his life, and the Seahawks needed every bit of it plus a Rams muffed punt to win 31-27, a slim cover for the favored home team. We also had our ratings spread for that game at Seahawks -2.5, and Darnold’s performance outweighed the lauded Seattle defense allowing 8.1 yards per play.

Let’s look at not just the ratings for both teams heading into this matchup but where I’ve had them over the course of the entire season before getting a bit into the matchup.

Super Bowl power ratings

As you can see, I had both teams as below average coming into Week 1. The Seahawks rating in particular rankles as I was a big believer in Mike Macdonald coming into last season and had the Seahawks as darkhorse Super Bowl contenders in his first year, but the transition to Sam Darnold, coming off an awful close to the season in Minnesota, took the shine off for me.

The Patriots I believed were the most overrated team by the market heading into the year. Putting their weekly spreads into an implied win percentage converter and adding them up, the market had the Pats just barely above average in aggregate, and that seemed ridiculous for one of the worst teams the prior season with a lot of questions about the offense outside of Drake Maye, who flashed talent as a rookie but couldn’t turn the excitement into wins.

Based on my previous optimism about the Seahawks, I was quicker to buy into them as a legitimate contender, moving them up aggressively from Weeks 4-8 by adding at least one full point to their rating every single week. I took longer to give the Patriots their due, chalking up close wins to an easy schedule and figuring they’d eventually even out around .500 over the course of the year up until we got to Week 8, where I started buying into Maye as a potential MVP and the defensive improvement as tangible.

Throughout the regular season, the biggest gap I had between the two teams was 2.5 points. Heading into the Super Bowl, that gap has increased to three points. That’s because I no longer have doubts about the Seattle offense, and my rating of +9 might even be a bit low as it’s hard to ascertain how big the gap is between the top tier of NFC West juggernauts and the rest of the league. My previous doubts about the Patriots offense have creeped back in after three less than impressive performances against top defenses. I’ve still increased the Patriots’ rating from where I had it at the start of the postseason due to how much higher I have their defense after some incredible efforts both from the individual players brought in for just that impact and a defensive play-caller in Zak Kuhr who has been phenomenal.

Seahawks vs. Patriots projection

I’m making this spread Seahawks -3 on a neutral field, but I’m going to have a tough time backing the Patriots to cover in this matchup based on how the offense has performed this postseason against other top defenses. The unit did move the ball well against the Chargers while averaging 6 yards per play, but the game was still 9-3 until a fourth-quarter touchdown finally put it to bed. Maye fumbled twice in the game and threw an interception while the defense carried the day.

The next week, Maye and Co. averaged 3.9 yards per play against the Texans but put together three touchdown drives, and a pick-six by the defense gave them another double-digit win. Maye fumbled four times in the game, losing two, and threw another interception. Setting aside the three touchdown drives, only one of their other 11 offensive drives went longer than 12 yards. This was their best offensive performance of the postseason on the scoreboard, but it certainly wasn’t a clean, consistent game.

Then we have the AFC Championship, which included a second half played during a snowstorm. Those conditions helped the Patriots post two drives of 50+ yards to open the second half, attempting two field goals and making one. In better conditions prior to the break, the offense managed 67 yards on seven drives, none longer than 24 yards. Those drives ended in five punts, one long missed field goal to end the half and a 12-yard touchdown drive set up by an awful Jarrett Stidham turnover.

If Darnold gifts a short field or two to a defense that has rounded into elite form heading into the Super Bowl, the offense has a better chance of getting past 20 points and winning the game. But the Seahawks QB we saw against the Rams showed none of that old ghost-seeing turnover machine. I have my doubts the Patriots will be able to engineer three touchdown drives against the No. 1 scoring defense, or three field goals plus two touchdowns, so my initial play in this game is taking the Patriots team total Under 20.5 points.

Will I be able to get to taking the Patriots on the spread if it continues to climb? The Patriots defense probably isn’t going to let the game get out of hand, so I certainly think a 20-16 Seahawks win is a realistic way to back the Patriots offense continuing to struggle but covering an inflated number. But I’m going to be in wait mode to see if the market will make my decision easier by pushing the spread up to 6-7 points.

One angle that will make it easier to back the Patriots is these bigger underdogs having consistent success in the biggest “nobody believes in us” spot in sports. Starting with the Patriots’ upset of the Rams as 14-point underdogs in Super Bowl 36, underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 11-2 ATS in the Super Bowl over the last 24 years with seven outright wins. That includes a string of four outright wins from Super Bowl 44 to 52 before the Rams won but didn’t cover against the Bengals as four-point favorites. 

So my tentative lean is to the Patriots, who I’m nonetheless backing to score no more than 20 points. If that feels counterintuitive, welcome to the 2025 NFL season.