Patriots vs. Seahawks game preview, odds, picks, best bets

It will be a title game rematch 11 years in the making when the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots square off at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 8. The Patriots will be seeking their seventh title in their 12th trip to the big game, and Seattle is after its second victory in its fourth attempt. New England’s fourth championship came at the expense of the Seahawks following the 2014 season when Malcolm Butler intercepted a Russell Wilson pass in the end zone with 20 seconds left to seal a 28-24 victory. MVP candidate Drake Maye will lead the Patriots as they come off a 10-7 AFC Championship Game victory against the Denver Broncos in brutal winter conditions. Sam Darnold will guide the Seahawks, who won a 31-27 thriller over their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, in the NFC title game. Both defenses are in peak form but with the elements not expected to be a major factor, the offenses won’t be taking a back seat in this winner-tale-all showdown.

Here’s everything fans and bettors need to know for the big game between the Patriots and Seahawks, including the latest odds, model picks, injury reports and weather conditions. All odds are from DraftKings.

Seahawks vs. Patriots (Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Levi’s Stadium; Santa Clara Calif.

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5
• Money line: Seahawks -230, Patriots +190
• Total: 46.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

The Seahawks (16-3) are one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball. They also are battle tested, coming out of an NFC West that produced three of conference’s final four teams in the playoffs. Seattle had to beat both of the others to get here, and the third showdown of the season with the Rams was no picnic. Darnold had one the best days of his eight-year career, throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns, but  L.A. put up 479 yards and it was touch-and-go for Seattle until the end. A muffed punt by the Rams in the third quarter was a huge turning point. The Patriots have simply been winning, and when the storm blew in Sunday at Mile High, it seemed like anything could happen. But the defense held and the Patriots are back in the title game for the first time since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick led them to a sixth title after the 2018 season.

Both teams have been excellent against the spread this season, with Seattle going 14-5 and covering in six of their past eight and the Patriots going 14-6. New England’s three-point victory as a 3.5-point favorite snapped a five-game ATS cover streak. Both sides also have been strong to the Over, with Seattle 11-8 and New England 12-8 to the Over. However, the SportsLine Projection model has Under 46.5 hitting in 59% of its simulations. That get a “B” grade from the model, and so does New England on the money line, as they are winning in 39% of simulations, offering good value at those odds. Each team is covering in 50% of the model’s simulations.  

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Sunday’s game in Denver turned ugly in a hurry and New England was fortunate to get out with the victory, as the kickers missed two field goals apiece in the slushy conditions. The Patriots’ 206-yard total against the Broncos can be chalked up to the weather, but the offense wasn’t moving much in the sunshine before halftime either. Maye and Co. haven’t been terribly impressive in the playoffs overall. The quarterback threw for 268 yards against the Chargers, but the Pats scored just 16 points, and the 28-16 victory against the Texans was helped immensely by the defense forcing turnovers. Maye has had his own issues protecting the ball, and that won’t fly against the Seahawks. They are plus-4 in turnover margin in these playoffs and haven’t given the ball away once in the two games. The Patriots are plus-3 and have eight takeaways, including four interceptions against Houston. New England had the second-best scoring offense in the NFL in the regular season, averaging 28.8 points, and Seattle was third at 28.4. On the other side, the Seahawks allowed the fewest points in the NFL (17.2) and the Patriots were fourth (18.8).   

Darnold was a surprise addition to the injury report before Seattle’s 41-6 victory against 49ers with an oblique injury, but he played in that game and showed no ill effects on Sunday against the Rams. He has four touchdown passes and no interceptions and has been sacked five times over the two playoff games. Maye has been sacked five times in each of his team’s postseason games. The Seahawks also lost touchdown machine Zach Charbonnet for the season when the running back tore an ACL against the 49ers. Kenneth Walker III has 256 total yards and four TDs over the two games, and George Holani had 27 receiving yards out of the backfield Sunday. The Seattle offensive line is getting healthier, with starting left tackle Charles Cross (foot) and backup Josh Jones (knee) returning for the Seahawks’ victory in the NFC Championship Game. Reserve lineman Amari Kight (knee) was still out, but the time off will give injured players a chance to heal. The Seahawks also hope linebacker Drake Thomas will be back after he went down late Sunday with a shoulder injury and didn’t return. The Patriots lost linebacker Robert Spillane to an ankle injury in Sunday’s game, but he said he expects to be ready for the final game of the season. Jack Gibbens, who had 81 tackles and played in all 17 games this season, took Spillane’s place Sunday.                      

The rest of the playoff teams could only dream of California, where the temperatures should be milder than we’ve see throughout these playoffs. The high temperatures in the Bay area in early February are in the mid- to high-60’s and the lows are around 50 degrees. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50’s at kickoff on Feb. 8, with partly cloudy skies and a chance of some light wind.   

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