The Olympics have been pure entertainment, but the NHL isn’t too far away from returning to action. There’ll be fewer than two weeks until the trade deadline once games pick up again. That means playoff races are about to heat up, but it won’t be the only race that’ll pick up steam once the NHL starts up again.
Once the trade deadline passes, the race for the first overall pick will also be one to watch. The top of the 2026 draft, led by Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, has some blue-chip talent. That means rebuilding and retooling teams will be an all-out battle to secure the best possible draft position.
The Frontrunners
Vancouver Canucks
From trading Quinn Hughes to the losses piling up, it’s been a rough season in Vancouver. They sit at 42 points at the Olympic break and have a record of just 18-33-6. Their goal differential of -61 is also the worst in the NHL. The St. Louis Blues, who have the second-fewest points in the NHL, are seven points ahead of the Canucks in the standings.
There’s no doubt that the Canucks need an injection of high-end talent into their system. They’ve already stated that they’re in rebuild mode, and what better way to begin than by having the best odds for McKenna or Stenberg. They’re clearly the worst team in the NHL, and it will likely take a lot for any team to catch them since it probably won’t get better for the Canucks to close the season.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues are not as bad as their record indicates. Goaltending has been a significant reason why they’ve cratered to the bottom of the NHL this season, so it might not take much for them to become competitive again. However, it will depend on what general manager Doug Armstrong decides in the two weeks leading up to the trade deadline.
Plenty of Blues players have found themselves in the rumor mill. From Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas to Justin Faulk and Brayden Schenn, there’s a non-zero chance that Armstrong opts for a fire sale. I’d be surprised if he tears it down to the bolts, but that would put the Blues in a better position to catch the Canucks. Even if Armstrong doesn’t commit to a fire sale, they should be in a prime position to have great odds at securing a top-two or -three pick in the draft.
New York Rangers
It has been quite a disappointing season for the Rangers. That’s led to the organization releasing The Letter 2.0, stating that they’re beginning a retool. They already traded Artemi Panarin just before the Olympic trade freeze went into effect, and there’s likely more to come before the trade deadline on March 6.
Related: NHL Trade Bait List for 2026 Trade Deadline
Vincent Trocheck has found himself in the rumor mill, as has Braden Schneider. Alexis Lafreniere could be a trade target as well, though that seems less likely at this time. The Rangers are about even with the Blues in standings, as they have 50 points compared to the Blues’ 49. They are not a good team, but if there’s a roadblock to them completely free-falling in the standings, it’s Igor Shesterkin returning from injury after the break. Still, they should have top three to five odds in the draft lottery.
The Next Tier
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets were the Presidents’ Trophy winners just a season ago, but their 2025-26 season has been a complete 180. They sit with 52 points at the Olympic break and are likely heading for a top-five pick in the 2026 draft.
How the Jets navigate the trade deadline remains to be seen since they don’t have many interesting trade targets. But even if they sell off, they’ll likely need some help in the draft lottery to have a shot at McKenna or Stenberg. Still, they’ll be in a position to add a high-end prospect such as Tynan Lawrence or Caleb Malhotra to their system. They could sorely use a prospect with scoring upside in their pipeline.
Calgary Flames
The Flames are tied with the Jets in the standings with 52 points. Scoring has been an issue for them, so they could use someone like McKenna or Stenberg to propel their rebuild/retool, but they will also need help in the lottery.
Their situation isn’t all that different from the Jets. If they don’t jump up via the draft lottery, they’ll be in a position to add someone like Lawrence, Malhotra or Viggo Bjorck to their prospect pipeline. It’d go a long way for them as they look to return to contention.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks have just 53 points in the standings, but noticeable progress has been made in their rebuild this season. Connor Bedard has taken a significant step forward in his development, and other high-end picks from previous drafts are starting to make an impact at the pro level.
Still, the Blackhawks would benefit from adding another blue-chip prospect to their system. It doesn’t have to be McKenna or Stenberg, but can you imagine their future if they add either to play alongside Bedard? Blackhawks fans should be salivating at the thought of McKenna and Bedard as their core, so they should be rooting for some more draft lottery luck.
The Longshots
This next tier of teams will need the same luck the New York Islanders had last year when they jumped from 10th to first overall to draft Matthew Schaefer. Even if these teams end up selling at the deadline, as they should, they’re just not bad enough to catch the Canucks, Blues or Rangers for the best odds in the draft lottery.
The San Jose Sharks are in an odd position. At 58 points, they have the seventh-best odds at McKenna, but they’re also only five points out of a playoff spot. I can’t imagine they’re buyers at the deadline, but it’ll be interesting to see what GM Mike Grier decides to do. How they fare in the week or so before the deadline likely determines their plans.
It’s been a disappointing season for the New Jersey Devils, but they likely aren’t bad enough for the bottom to fall out, even if they sell off at the deadline. Between Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier, there’s too much talent on their roster to catch even a team like the Rangers for top-three odds in the lottery.
The same goes for the Nashville Predators, but it will be interesting to see if Barry Trotz, who’s stepping down as GM in the near future, makes any moves at the deadline. Like the Sharks, the playoffs are still within reach for them. They’re just four points out of a playoff spot, but they could opt to sell some players and look to get younger for whoever the next GM is.
Regardless, there’s going to be quite a race to secure draft positioning after the trade deadline. The Canucks are in the driver’s seat for the first overall pick, but the Blues, Rangers, and even the Flames and Jets will likely look to bottom out to improve their draft lottery odds. For prospects like McKenna and Stenberg, the pain will be worth the gain.
