With the 2026 Trade Deadline baring down on the NHL, the Ottawa Senators find themselves in a bit of an awkward position. The team is only five points out of a wild card spot, and after a dominant win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, they might have the the momentum to finish the season in a playoff spot. However, the Eastern Conference has been a grind; despite sitting just five points out, there are four teams ahead of the Senators, and all but the Washington Capitals have games in hand.
That has complicated how the Senators will address the trade deadline. They could enter as sellers, getting rid of a few big contracts and gearing up for next season, where their core will be better prepared for a big season. They could also be minor buyers, adding one or two solid contributors with term who are more focused on getting Ottawa over the hump in 2026-27.
But there’s one huge complication that could throw a wrench in their plans – Brady Tkachuk’s contract. The team’s captain and heart of the Senators has just two seasons left on his current deal, meaning that time is running out to prove to him that this is a winning organization. If they can’t start making waves now, Tkachuk may want to try his luck elsewhere, setting Ottawa back years. If they want to keep him, they need to show him they mean business, which necessitates a bold trade deadline strategy.
Why Would Brady Leave?
As of this article, there has been no indication that Tkachuk is thinking of leaving. Rumours have been rampant for most of the year, dating back to last season’s first-round playoff exit, but Tkachuk quashed those thoughts quickly. “All those articles, stories… It’s just not true,” he said during the following media conference. “I want to play here, I want to win here and I really believe in everybody in this organization and that everybody wants to win here. I think that’s what makes it fun, everybody has the same goal and wants to accomplish the same thing.”
Related: 2026 NHL Trade Deadline Tracker
Tkachuk addressed rumours again following the Olympics, saying to Claire Hanna, “That’s not even something that’s crossed my mind. I love playing for this team, I love the guys in this room, I really believe in what we’re all about and that thought has never crossed my mind.”
Elliotte Friedman reiterated Tkachuk’s stance after the USA Olympic men’s team controversy, saying the percentage of him leaving was, “Zero…I mean, he’s the captain of the Senators. He’s a great captain for the Senators. He’s not going anywhere.”
But there will always be a doubt in fans’ minds thanks to his brother. In the offseason he was set to become a restricted free agent, Matthew Tkachuk informed the Calgary Flames that he wasn’t interested in signing a long-term extension, prompting a hurried trade with the Florida Panthers that left the Flames in a worse position. Johnny Gaudreau’s departure weeks before may have helped push the needle for Matthew, and it certainly didn’t help that the Flames got out of the first round once in the six seasons Tkachuk spent in Calgary. In the end, his reasoning was that he needed to “re-evaluate where I’m at.”
Brady’s situation isn’t exactly like Matthew’s; the Senators have new management, a long-established core that isn’t going anywhere, and their captain already signed an seven-year deal in 2021. But, after eight seasons in Ottawa, he has very little to show for it. It’s why rumours persist – why would anyone stay with a team for so long if they can’t win? If nothing changes, it could prompt Tkachuk to have a similar personal re-evaluation in a couple seasons, especially after Matthew won the Cup in 2024. The Senators need to prevent that from happening, so the top priority needs to be making the playoffs this season.
Can the Senators Make the Playoffs?
Despite the number of teams they need to leapfrog to get into the final wild card spot, the Senators have a good chance to return to the playoffs this season. As of Mar. 3, Moneypuck gives Ottawa a 41% chance to make the playoffs, ahead of the Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Philadelphia Flyers. That still puts them ninth in the East, but they are just behind the Boston Bruins’ 54.2% odds, who haven’t been as hot as the Senators after the Olympic break.
General manager Steve Staios also believes that his team is better than their record indicates, according to Friedman. There have been several hiccups throughout the season that have set the Senators back, including inconsistent play and a personal absence from starting goalie Linus Ullmark and poorly-timed injuries from Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, and Shane Pinto. When everyone is on top of their game, they can be a very scary team to face.
But is that good enough? The Senators seem to be relying on luck to get into the playoffs this season. There’s no real sense of urgency in trying to turn their young, developing team into a top contender. While it’s good that Staios hasn’t jumped the gun to address every issue that’s cropped up, the team hasn’t done anything significant since acquiring Dylan Cozens at last season’s deadline. That’s simply not enough to compete with the Eastern powerhouses they’re trying to upset in the playoffs.
Senators Need to Be Aggressive
The Senators currently have roughly $12 million in deadline salary cap space, which is a decent chunk of change to play with, but it’s unlikely to bring in both a top-six scoring winger and a top-four defenceman, two of the team’s biggest needs. That will require parting with some high-end talent, and so far, the Senators have been resistant to giving up too much of their future for results now.
That needs to change this season. The Senators don’t have a strong prospect pool, which has been an issue for several seasons, but without a 2026 first-round pick, that’s not going to improve this year. Instead of scrounging to get a little value with what they have, it would be better to fully embrace the win-now mode and trade away picks for valuable roster pieces. Carter Yakemchuk isn’t going to do much to keep Tkachuk around before his contract expires.
There are plenty of examples of this strategy backfiring in the past. The most notable might be the Matt Duchene trade that practically forced the Senators to rebuild, but the Alex DeBrincat deal wasn’t much better, nor was the Jakub Chychrun trade with the Arizona Coyotes. But those deals were done by the former regime that had a track record of over-evaluating certain aspects and ignoring others, like whether they were interested in sticking around in Ottawa.
But this is a different ownership group and management structure. Staios has done excellent with his acquisitions so far; Cozens has been the perfect second-line centre in Ottawa, Jordan Spence has been a solid depth addition, and Nick Cousins has been the perfect grit in the Senators’ bottom six. Fans can trust him to make the right call and not chase the biggest names just because they’re available.
There are a lot of players that would fit the Senators’ needs, but its far more important that Ottawa embraces a win-now structure over a more balanced approach. That was great for developing a team, but the team’s core is now in their prime. It’s time to capitalize on that and see what they can do when given all the tools to succeed, and that starts this week.
