Why Jayson Tatum’s return gives the Celtics a real chance to win the NBA title

Jayson Tatum is going to play for the Boston Celtics again this season. It looks like it could be as soon as Friday night against the Dallas Mavericks (7 p.m. ET, ESPN/fubo). Tatum is officially listed as questionable, and ESPN reports that he’s “ready to go” about one week shy of the 10-month mark since he tore his Achilles in last year’s playoffs. 

First things first, credit to Tatum for putting in the work to get back this soon. Ten months is quicker than the average rehab timeline for an Achilles tear; several players have stayed out far longer, including Kevin Durant, who sat out 18 months with the same injury. 

Durant’s injury happened later in the postseason calendar, to be fair. A 10-month rehab would’ve put him in the 2020 playoffs, which the Brooklyn Nets didn’t qualify for. So, of course, he took more time off. There were no games to be played.  

For Tatum, there are plenty of games to be played. Meaningful ones, at that. That’s a credit to the Celtics, who have more than held down the fort in Tatum’s absence. Entering play on Thursday, they possessed the league’s No. 2 offensive and net rating and No. 7 defense. If the playoffs started today, they would be the East’s No. 2 seed. 

It wasn’t supposed to go this way. With Tatum initially expected to miss the full season and Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis all shipped off, this was expected to be a “gap year” for the Celtics, which is code for throwaway. Had it actually gone that way, the chances of Tatum returning would have been slim. You don’t see Tyrese Haliburton coming back. The Indiana Pacers are not in the postseason mix. 

Boston is more than just in it. Jaylen Brown (who has played like an MVP) and company have incentivized Tatum to return by positioning themselves on the cusp of contention, creating an opportunity for Tatum to get them over the hump. He doesn’t have to be his full superhero self to accomplish that. 

That’s the key here. Tatum can ease back into this thing. He can play on a minutes limit and take some games off down the stretch. He’s going to be out of rhythm and very tired to start. But he should be able to get the better part of his sea legs back by the playoffs, and the deeper the Celtics go, the closer he will get to full power. 

So how deep can the Celtics go? Potentially all the way. That’s not an exaggeration. I’m a firm believer that Boston was a legit threat to win the East even without Tatum, but winning that last series against whatever behemoth gets through the West was too tall an order. Now it’s not. The Finals are more than three months from now. Tatum would be all the way back by then. This is doable. 

However it plays out, the Eastern Conference just got a lot more interesting. There are four really good teams in the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers and the Celtics. Two of them have now added an All-Star (Tatum in Boston and James Harden in Cleveland).

There are two wild cards in the Philadelphia 76ers, who would be a threat to anyone if the stars are healthy (and if Paul George can pick up where he left off before the suspension), and the Charlotte Hornets, who have won 16 of their last 19 games with a world-beating starting lineup and have arguably been the best team in basketball over that stretch. The Toronto Raptors will make somebody’s life hell with all their pressure and pace. 

Anyone could win this thing. 

But I keep coming back to the Celtics as the most complete team. The Pistons lack shooting, and really, any kind of consistent offensive source outside of Cade Cunningham. The Knicks, if you haven’t been paying attention, have been the best defense in the league over the last two-plus months, but I’ll believe that when I see Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns getting hunted in the playoffs and actually holding up. The Cavs are for real, but Harden is not to be trusted the deeper a series goes. 

The Celtics are not perfect. They never get to the free-throw line. They rank dead last with only 22.6% of their shots coming at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass, making them extremely, if not dangerously, reliant on jump shots and all the variance that comes with that. But in their 2024 championship season, it wasn’t much different — 29.1% of their shots came at the rim, 26th in the league. 

The Joe Mazzulla-coached Celtics have consistently turned games into 3-point contests. In the championship season, 43.7% of their shots came from beyond the arc, per Cleaning The Glass. This season, that number is literally identical: 43.7% entering play on Friday. Only the Golden State Warriors and Hornets make more 3s per game than Boston. Brown has been a midrange maniac, as has Payton Pritchard, effectively covering for the lack of rim pressure. 

Jayson Tatum’s second act is here, and it comes with a chance to reframe his career narrative

Sam Quinn

Plus, to whatever degree the Celtics handicap themselves by not getting to the rim they largely counteract by protecting it; they’re top 10 in blocks per game, and teams shoot just 64.9% against them inside of four feet, per Cleaning The Glass, the seventh-best mark in the league and a significant part of the 52.1 eFG% to which Boston holds its opponents overall (No. 3 league-wide). 

On top of this, the Celtics have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate and the second-lowest turnover percentage, per NBA.com tracking. That’s a lot of possessions going in your favor in a league that is obsessed with winning the possession game. 

To summarize: The Celtics are an elite offensive, defensive, rebounding and shooting team. They have found gold in Neemias Queta and shored up their center rotation with Nikola Vucevic. They have hustle guys. Two studs in Derrick White and Pritchard. They protect the ball and the paint. They are experienced. Supremely well coached. And now they are adding a second superstar that is, indeed, purely additive. 

That’s the last and final point here. There is no cost to inserting Tatum into an already well-oiled operation this late in the season. If this were Luka Doncic, as an example, a team that has played offense collectively for the last five months would have to change on the fly. They would have to start covering for him defensively. Tatum requires no change or cover. He’s a superstar uniquely suited for support, much like the role George was starting to play so well in Philly before his suspension — impact without interruption. 

And again, that’s only until he gets his groove back, which he has plenty of time to do. There is a reasonable scenario in which the Celtics are playing in the conference semifinals two months from now with Tatum ready to fully put the pedal down. And from that point forward, the Celtics become an absolute threat to win not just the Eastern Conference, but potentially the whole damn thing.