Italy vs. Mexico in the World Baseball Classic: How to watch, clinch scenarios and how USA can advance

The most talented roster ever assembled by USA for international baseball competition has been reduced to interested observers on the final day of pool play in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Italy’s stunning upset of USA on Tuesday means Italy controls its own destiny and USA has to root for favorable outcomes Wednesday to reach the quarterfinals.

“It’s out of our control,” USA captain Aaron Judge told MLB.com after Tuesday’s loss. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.”

Wednesday’s game between Italy and Mexico will determine USA’s fate … and also Italy’s and Mexico’s. Two of those teams will advance to the quarterfinals. The other is going home. Needless to say, failing to advance would be a colossal failure for USA. Here’s how you can watch Wednesday’s crucial game and what you need to know going into it.

How can Team USA advance at World Baseball Classic? WBC tiebreaker scenarios explained

Stephen Pianovich

Italy vs. Mexico: Where to watch, odds

• Time: 7 p.m. ET | Date: Wednesday, March 11
• Location: Daikin Park, Houston
• TV channel: FS1 | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
• Starting pitchers: RHP Aaron Nola (ITA) vs. TBA
• Odds (via FanDuel): Mexico -1.5 (-134) | O/U: 7.5

Pool standings and clinch scenarios

The top two teams in each pool advance to the quarterfinals and, going into Wednesday’s game, neither spot has been clinched in Pool B. The Italy vs. Mexico outcome will decide both spots. Here are the Pool B standings:

1. Italy: 3-0
2. USA: 3-1
3. Mexico: 2-1
4. Great Britain: 1-3 (eliminated)
5. Brazil: 0-4 (eliminated)

If Italy wins Wednesday, they’re 4-0 and win Pool B. USA and Mexico would both be 3-1, and USA wins that tiebreaker because they won the head-to-head game Monday. That’s the easy scenario. But, if Mexico wins Wednesday, it’s a three-team tie at 3-1. That’s where things get chaotic. Unfortunately, we’ll have to do some math to figure it out.

1. Fewest runs allowed divided by outs recorded by tied teams
2. Fewest earned runs allowed divided by outs recorded by tied teams
3. Highest batting average in games between tied teams
4. Drawing of lots

This tiebreaker procedure was previously used to determine the runner-up of Pool C, where Australia, Chinese Taipei, and Korea all finished at 2-2 (Korea won the tiebreaker).

Let us all root for the tiebreaker to trickle down to No. 4, purely for chaos purposes. More likely, it will come down to No. 1. Here are the numbers heading into Wednesday’s game:

The lower the quotient, the better, so USA currently leads the three-team tiebreaker. That’s because they’ve played their two games against Italy and Mexico already and thus have recorded more outs. Italy and Mexico will catch up in outs recorded Wednesday.

Although Tuesday’s comeback fell short, turning an 8-0 deficit into an 8-6 loss was important for USA. It wasn’t just a moral victory. They hung six runs on Italy and dinged their tiebreaker quotient. If it were a regular-season MLB game, USA probably waves the white flag and puts in its low-leverage relievers. Can’t do that in the WBC. Every run scored and allowed matters.

Anyway, here are the possible outcomes Wednesday:

• Italy wins: Italy and USA advance
• Mexico wins while scoring four or fewer runs: Italy and Mexico advance
• Mexico wins while scoring five or more runs: Mexico and USA advance

So, the only scenario in which USA does not advance is Mexico winning a low-scoring game. USA needs an Italy win or Mexico to score at least five runs. As long as one of those two things happen, USA advances. It’s pretty embarrassing for USA that it’s come down to this, though the odds are still in their favor.

Mexico can go with their best

Mexico has only two starting pitchers on its roster — Javier Assad and Taijuan Walker — hence a bullpen game against USA on Monday. They also had a favorable first-round schedule that included two off-days. They played last Friday, had an off-day Saturday, played Sunday and Monday, and had an off-day Tuesday. The pitching staff is in great shape for Wednesday’s game.

Those off-days allow Mexico to start Assad against Italy on normal rest. He threw 51 pitches in 3 ⅔ shutout innings against Brazil last Friday. The first-round pitch limit is 65 and Assad should be good to approach that number Wednesday. Also, high-leverage relievers Robert Garcia and Andrés Muñoz have not pitched since Friday. They’ll be well rested against Italy.

Italy’s bullpen may be short

Starter Michael Lorenzen was terrific against USA (4 ⅔ shutout innings). The bullpen? Not so much. Italy needed six relievers to get the final 13 outs despite being staked to an 8-0 lead. Lefty Joe La Sorsa (19 pitches) and righties Ron Marinaccio (16 pitches) and Greg Weissert (12 pitches) all pitched against USA on Tuesday.

La Sorsa is Italy’s only lefty reliever. He would have to pitch a second straight day to match up with lefties Jarren Duran and Jonathan Aranda, Mexico’s top two hitters. Here are the WBC rules on pitcher usage:

• Pitchers who throw 50 or more pitches in a game must have a mandatory four days of rest before pitching again in a game.
• Pitchers who throw 30 or more pitches in a game must have at least one day of rest before pitching again in a game.
• No pitcher may pitch more than two days in a row. 

La Sorsa, Marinaccio, and Weissert all threw fewer than 30 pitches Tuesday, so the rules say they’re available to pitch Wednesday. It is not often (pretty rare, actually) that relievers pitch back-to-back days at this point in spring training. Did their MLB teams give them the green light to do it in the WBC? Does it not matter and they’ll do it anyway? We’ll find out soon, I suppose.

Point is, USA’s comeback attempt forced Italy to burn through six relievers, potentially putting them in a pickle against Mexico. Thanks to the Tuesday off-day, Mexico’s pitching staff is nice and fresh. That isn’t the case for Italy. They’ll need Nola, a four-time Cy Young vote-getter, to give them at least three innings Wednesday, and ideally four-plus like Lorenzen did Tuesday.

Prediction

This Italy team is a fun, scrappy bunch, and I did pick them to make a Cinderella run. I just feel like the decks are stacked in Mexico’s favor. They’re rested coming out of the off-day and know they must win to advance. Mexico will have the pedal on the floor, and I’m not sure Italy is capable of holding them to four or fewer runs even in a loss, which is the only scenario that keeps USA out. I’ll go with Mexico 9, Italy 3. That would send Mexico and USA to the quarterfinals, and Italy home.