Not long ago in this space, I looked at the National League Rookie of the Year odds and gave a pick – and it wasn’t the favorite. With the MLB regular season now less than two weeks away, I’ll break down the AL Rookie of the Year odds today, and it appears to be a bit more of a wide-open field than in the Senior Circuit.
If I wager on Rookie of the Year futures, I generally prefer players who have had a cup of coffee in the majors and are locked into a starting spot for the coming season. That’s why I didn’t like Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop and MLB No.1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin as the +280 favorite in the NL. He hasn’t been in the majors previously and isn’t guaranteed a spot out of spring camp with the big club.
But AL Rookie of the Year favorite Trey Yesavage (+370) of the Toronto Blue Jays fits both criteria. The 22-year-old, rated as the No. 12 overall prospect in the sport by MLB.com, saw three regular-season starts for the reigning AL champions last season and was 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 14 innings. He was a little wild with seven walks, but that’s to be expected from a rookie pitcher. The Jays were so impressed by Yesavage that he was on the postseason roster and made six total appearances (five starts) and was 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA.
American League Rookie of the Year odds (via DraftKings)
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The one concern with on betting Yesavage is that he might have a limited workload in 2026. He threw 139.2 innings in 2025 across all levels (he started in Single-A Dunedin), 46 innings more than his final college season in 2024 — and 27.2 of those big-league innings were in the pressure-cooker of the playoffs. Manager John Schneider has said the Jays “still view him as a starter,” but that Yesavage, the team’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in ’25, would be limited to 3-4 innings per start early in the season. He still hasn’t thrown in a Grapefruit League game.
“We’ve said it with Trey, it was a very unique situation after last year and then literally the shortest off-season you could have going into this, his first full season,” Schneider said recently to reporters. “So he understands it’s the long game you’re playing.”
FanGraphs projects Yesavage to finish 7-5 with a 3.79 ERA in 128.0 innings. Good numbers, but Rookie of the Year-worthy? The Blue Jays have never had a pitcher win AL ROY, and their last winner was third baseman Eric Hinske in 2002.
Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle (+500) is the No. 2 overall prospect in MLB, and as with Griffin it’s a question of whether McGonigle breaks camp with the big club and how he handles his first action vs. big-league pitching. McGonigle is batting .259 this spring with a .963 OPS, but I think he starts the year in the minors. McGonigle has been struggling of late and Detroit has a good veteran at shortstop in Zach McKinstry; Javier Baez can also play there. Keeping McGonigle down a bit delays his free-agent clock.
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Carter Jensen (+600) is Kansas City’s long-term replacement at catcher for future Hall of Famer Salvador Perez, who is still going pretty strong at age 35 and has a new contract through 2027. Perez is likely to spend most of his time, though, at first base or DH.
Jensen, the No. 18 overall prospect in MLB, did get a taste of the Show last year and hit .300 with three homers and 13 RBI in 60 at-bats. Frankly, I have concern about the fact that Jensen plays such a demanding position. There is a reason no catcher has won AL Rookie of the Year since Cleveland’s Sandy Alomar did so in 1990.
Three Japanese players are next on the list in Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto (+600), White Sox third baseman Munetaka Murakami (+800) and Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (+850). I think the winner is either Okamoto or Murakami, as they will play every day and obviously they have faced professional pitching plenty from their Nippon Professional Baseball days in Japan.
The 29-year-old Okamoto, who starred for Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, was limited to 69 games last NPB season due to injury but hit .327 with a .416 on-base percentage, .598 slugging percentage, 1.014 OPS, 15 home runs and 49 RBI. At one point, he had six consecutive seasons of 30-plus home runs with a peak of 41 in 2023. This spring, he’s hitting .333 with a homer and four RBI, and FanGraphs projects him for a .250 average, 25 homers and 83 RBI.
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Considering how bad the White Sox are, they were surprise bid winners for the 26-year-old Murakami, who won back-to-back MVP Awards in NPB in 2021 and ’22, and was a four-time All-Star. The lefty slugger had one of the great seasons in Japanese history in 2022 in winning the NPB Triple Crown including 56 home runs. That broke legendary Sadaharu Oh’s single-season NPB record.
This spring, Murakami is batting .385 with two doubles but no homers (also had a grand slam for eliminated Team Japan in the WBC), and FanGraphs projects him for a .232 average 30 home runs and 83 RBI. Last year’s winner, Nick Kurtz of the Athletics, hit .290 with 36 homers and 86 knocked in.
Murakami would be my choice today as if the White Sox are a lot better this year, as many expect (I lean Over 67.5 wins), and he’s right in the middle of that then will get plenty of ROY votes. He’s not paid like a rookie, earning $17 million in 2026. Okamoto may split votes on his own team with Yesavage.
