With a record of 37-28-9 and just over two weeks remaining in the 2025-26 NHL season, the Edmonton Oilers are already guaranteed to finish with their fewest points in a full-length season since 2018-19, which was the last time they missed the playoffs. And yet, Edmonton also has a very realistic chance to finish atop the standings in its division for the first time in 39 years.
That pretty much says it all about the Pacific Division in 2025-26. The first-place Anaheim Ducks, who have a record of 41-28-5, currently project to finish with 96 points, which would tie for the fourth fewest points by a division winner in a full-length season since the NHL introduced the shootout in 2005. Â
But the Oilers certainly aren’t about to apologize for playing in the weakest division in the NHL, nor should they. Rather, they should be capitalizing on the situation, and after five months of mediocre hockey, Edmonton finally appears to be doing just that.
With wins in their last three games, including a massive 4-2 victory over Anaheim at Rogers Place last Saturday (March 28), the Oilers have crept within striking distance of the Ducks. Following an overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday (March 30), Anaheim now has 87 points, four more than Edmonton. Both teams have eight games remaining on their respective schedules.
So what will it take for the Oilers to overtake Anaheim? Here’s a look at the factors that will decide the Pacific Division race.
Ducks Have Slightly Easier Schedule
According to data from Tankathon, Anaheim has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the entire NHL, with an opponents’ point percentage of just .504. The Oilers, however, have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, with an opponents’ point percentage of .525.
Three of Anaheim’s remaining eight games will come against teams currently in a playoff position: the Ducks will host the Minnesota Wild (third in the Central Division standings) and play a pair of games, one at home and one on the road, against the Nashville Predators (second in the Western Conference wild card standings). Edmonton, meanwhile, has just two remaining games against teams currently in a playoff position: the Oilers host both the Colorado Avalanche (first in the Central) and Vegas Golden Knights (third in the Pacific).
Related: Oilers’ 4 Biggest Remaining Games of 2025-26 Season
Both the Oilers and Ducks have two remaining games against teams that are effectively out of playoff contention. They each play at home the Vancouver Canucks, who are already officially eliminated, and Anaheim will also welcome the Calgary Flames (seventh in the Pacific), while the Oilers host the Chicago Blackhawks (eighth in the Central).
Edmonton and Anaheim also have an identical home/away split in their remaining games, playing five times on home ice compared to just three contests on the road.
Oilers Hold Tiebreaker Over Ducks
Some good news for the Oilers is that they currently hold the tiebreaker advantage against Anaheim, and that will almost certainly remain the case should the teams find themselves with equal point totals when the regular season concludes on April 16.
The first tiebreaker between two teams is regulation wins (RW), and Edmonton presently has 28 RW, four more than Anaheim. If the teams finish with the same number of RW, the next tiebreaker is regulation and overtime wins (ROW), and Edmonton currently has 37 ROW, which is also four more than Anaheim.
However, in the extremely unlikely event that the teams remained deadlocked through those first two categories, the next tiebreaker is total wins, and that’s where Anaheim holds a sizeable edge, at 41 to 37.
Oilers Can’t Forget About Vegas
Vegas could yet throw a wrench into things. With a record of 33-26-16, the third-place Golden Knights are currently one point back of Edmonton and five behind Anaheim, so they can’t be counted out.
Not unlike Edmonton, the Golden Knights have performed well below expectations this season, and are also looking to make a late surge, after shocking the hockey world on Sunday (March 29) by firing head coach Bruce Cassidy and replacing him with John Tortorella. On Monday, Vegas won its first game with Tortorella at the helm, defeating Vancouver 4-2 at T-Mobile Arena.
The Golden Knights, however, have one fewer game remaining on their schedule compared to Anaheim and Edmonton, and with only 25 RW and 32 ROW, they also lose the tiebreakers to both teams ahead of them in the Pacific Division standings. Edmonton could deal a huge blow to Vegas by winning in regulation when the teams face off at Rogers Place this coming Saturday (April 4).
But first, the Oilers will play the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday (March 31) and Chicago on Thursday (April 2) at Rogers Place. Both are games that the Oilers not only should win, but need to win if they have plans of finishing atop their division for the first time since the 1986-87 season.
