Luka Dončić wants to expedite his injury return, but risks outweigh rewards for the Lakers and their star

When Luka Dončić suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain against the Oklahoma City Thunder last week, his season appeared to be over. With only around two weeks left before the Los Angeles Lakers would kick off their postseason, it simply didn’t seem as though he’d have enough time to recover from such a serious injury. Things looked even grimmer on Saturday, when it was revealed that Austin Reaves had suffered a Grade 2 left oblique muscle injury and would also miss meaningful time. The Lakers no longer had enough healthy bodies to survive long enough for a comeback. Their season, functionally, appeared to end.

But on Sunday, ESPN reported that Dončić is seeking specialized medical treatment in Europe in the hopes of expediting his return and playing for the Lakers this postseason. It is a noble effort by Dončić. Give him credit for trying. But it would be enormously irresponsible of the Lakers to put Dončić back on the floor this postseason, barring something completely unforeseen.

The typical recovery time for a Grade 2 hamstring strain is 4-6 weeks. No two players are identical, but the most notable current player dealing with that injury is Peyton Watson. He just missed 46 days, came back and played four games, and is now week-to-week after aggravating the injury. We don’t have a playoff schedule yet, but Game 1 of the Lakers’ first-round series will come either 16 or 17 days after the injury. Game 7 of a first-round series, should the Lakers last that long, would be roughly two weeks after that.

Comparisons to a quick return?

Is it plausible that Dončić could get healthy enough to play in, say, 30 days? It would appear to be quite unlikely. But, again, no two players are fully alike. Maybe Dončić finds a miracle treatment. Maybe he just happens to recover from this injury faster than most players would. But even if he could, what exactly would the Lakers have to gain?

The circumstances Dončić would likely hope to replicate would be the ones he played through in 2022, when he reached the Western Conference finals for the first time. On the final day of the 2022 regular season, Dončić suffered a left calf strain and was forced to miss the first three games of Dallas’ first-round series against Utah. However, the Mavericks managed to win two of those three games because they also had a healthy Jalen Brunson to lead the way. Dončić’s current second-leading scorer, Reaves, is also hurt. Sure, the Lakers have LeBron James, but he’s 41 and leading a roster that’s far weaker defensively than those Mavericks were. The Lakers can only ask so much of him.

What could Dončić expect if he did return? The easiest analogue here would be James Harden, a player to whom Dončić is often compared, in 2021. He suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain in Game 1 of Brooklyn’s second-round loss to Milwaukee. He missed the next four games and attempted to return for Game 5, just 10 days later. He played almost 46 minutes… and shot 1-of-10 from the floor. He shot 10-of-26 in Games 6 and 7, both losses, and physically looked like a shell of himself. Hamstring injuries are enormously difficult to play through. Even if Dončić could step on the court, it’s hard to imagine him doing so at the MVP-level he’d previously been playing at.

And that’s what the Lakers would need him to be if they hope to make any actual playoff noise. Even at full strength, these Lakers would be massive underdogs against either of their likely second-round opponents, the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder were up by 31 over the Lakers at halftime in the game in which Dončić got hurt. The Lakers have lost their last three games to the Spurs by 57 combined points (though Dončić missed the last one).

Why the risk outweighs the reward

Maybe Dončić would have been so singularly gifted in those matchups that he could have made them competitive, but the odds were already stacked against him. Those teams are better, deeper and more versatile. His best chance at truly competing with them was always going to come a year or two down the line, once the Lakers have figured out their own roster. Asking him to compete against those teams in a compromised physical state seems like a recipe for disaster.

I’ll offer the obvious “not a doctor” caveat here, but hasn’t recent NBA history suggested that a player is never more vulnerable to a serious injury than when he attempts to play through a lesser one? Tyrese Haliburton tearing his Achilles after playing through a calf strain in the Finals last season is the obvious example. Damian Lillard also tore his Achilles last postseason after coming back from a blood clot. Players lose some conditioning while sidelined. Depending on the injury, they might also overcompensate and favor other body parts. The modern game puts enormous strain on even fully healthy players. That strain only intensifies in a playoff setting.

At a certain point, the responsibility falls on teams to protect their players from themselves. There are some pretty notable examples of this. Dirk Nowitzki suffered a knee sprain in Game 4 of the 2003 Western Conference finals. He wanted to play in Game 4. The Mavericks held him out of the rest of the series. In 2000, Tim Duncan tore his meniscus in April and wanted to play in the playoffs. The Spurs didn’t allow it. Gregg Popovich took the long view in explaining why. “He was young, a franchise player,” Popovich said. “He wasn’t just a No. 1 pick. With him, you’ve got an opportunity to win multiple championships, if you don’t screw it up. I didn’t know if [the injury] could get worse, or get chronic.”

The Lakers are in a somewhat similar position with Dončić. He could be the face of their franchise for the next decade, the key to the next several championships in their iconic history. There’s risk and then there’s outright recklessness. Between Dončić’s injury, Reaves’ injury and the limitations of their roster even at full strength, this was not going to be a championship season anyway. The Lakers have nothing to gain by putting him back on the court and everything to lose.

Just ask Grant Hill. In 2000, he attempted to play through a severe ankle injury in the playoffs against the Miami Heat. In Game 2, he hurt that ankle far worse. At that point, he was coming off of a run of five consecutive All-NBA selections. That offseason, he signed a massive contract with the Orlando Magic, but was never the same player. Hill would later say that one of his daughter’s first words was “ankle” because of all of the injury woes he endured after leaving Detroit.

Dončić’s impulse is admirable, and it makes sense in light of his 2022 return. The Lakers are also surely aware of all of this, and so are any doctors Dončić works with. Nobody is going to let him play if he truly can’t. But there is a big difference between capability of playing and actually returning at full strength. All of these injuries are different, and Dončić’s hamstring doesn’t pose the same risks as, say, Haliburton’s calf or Hill’s ankle. 

But there just isn’t much risk the Lakers should be willing to tolerate given the meager reward here. This isn’t Haliburton playing hurt in Game 7 of the Finals. This is an already flawed and decimated team trying to stave off an inevitable elimination a little while longer. Essentially punting on the 2026 postseason is enormously disappointing considering where this team was only a few days ago, but it’s the responsible decision in light of the long-term stakes here. A 2026 title is off of the table, but 2027 is not. And it just isn’t worth risking the latter to pretend there’s hope for the former.