All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Sunday, April 12 with the Los Angeles Dodgers going for a sweep of the Texas Rangers, the Chicago Cubs trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates before a stretch of games against other NL contenders and the Atlanta Braves hosting the Cleveland Guardians in the rubber match of their three-game set. With 15 games on the slate, there’s plenty of sluggers to target for those interested in MLB betting, specifically for prop betting on home run picks. SportsLine expert Jacob Fetner has provided his best plays for Sunday’s games. His home runs picks were up 50 units in the 2025 MLB season. For more expert picks and projections for Sunday’s MLB games, check out the SportsLine Projection Model.
Best Home Run picks for Sunday
- Matt Wallner, Twins (+380)
- Manny Machado, Padres (+440)
- Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox, +567)
Matt Wallner, Twins (+380, DraftKings)
Wallner is batting .199 with a .768 OPS against right-handed pitchers dating back to last season, with 20 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitchers. He has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Max Scherzer. Wallner has 13 home runs in 219 plate appearances on the road with a .760 OPS dating back to last season. Left-handed batters are hitting .253 with a .839 OPS against Scherzer dating back to last season, including 15 home runs in 239 PA. It’s a small sample size, but Wallner is 2-for-7 with two homers against Scherzer in his career. We set Wallner’s line at +247 to go yard, so getting +380 is strong value at this line.
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Manny Machado, Padres (+440, FanDuel)
We set Machado’s line at +275 to go yard on Sunday. Machado has the platoon advantage against left-handed Kyle Freeland and is batting .250 with a .823 OPS against lefties dating back to last season with 13 home runs in 204 plate appearances, compared to his .762 OPS against righties. Right-handed batters are hitting .292 with a .796 OPS against Freeland dating back to last season, including 21 home runs in 617 PA. Machado has 16 home runs in 362 PA at home with a .762 OPS dating back to last season.
Freeland has allowed six home runs over his last eight starts on the road. Despite Coors Field being his home park, Freeland allows 0.95 HR per nine innings at home compared to 1.38 on the road. Sunday is a road start. Machado has 54 at-bats against Freeland with 17 hits, seven walks and eight strikeouts for a 0.838 OPS. While he doesn’t have a home run against Freeland, he has success against him and we think he is due.
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Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+567, DraftKings)
Abreu is batting .256 with a .810 OPS against right-handed pitchers dating back to last season, with 24 of his 25 home runs against righties. Abreu has been more dangerous on the road dating back to last season, with 13 homers in 253 plate appearances and a .846 OPS, compared to a 733 OPS at home. He’s been on a tear, hitting three home runs over his last 10 road games.Â
Left-handed batters are hitting .261 with a .749 OPS against Andre Pallante dating back to last season, including 10 home runs in 376 plate appearances. Busch Stadium is playing hitter-friendly which adds to the appeal. We set Wilyer Abreu’s line at +352 to homer, so getting +567 is strong value.
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