On April 4, the Buffalo Sabres clinched their first playoff berth since 2010-11, ending the longest playoff drought in the NHL after the New York Rangers defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-1. The Sabres are now fighting for first place in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens.
The Sabres have 106 points with two games remaining, tied with the Canadiens (one game remaining), and the Lightning sit at 104 points, also with two games remaining. Here are Buffalo’s possible first-round opponents as we enter the final week of the regular season.
All probabilities (over 1% chance) are from JFresh’s model on HockeyStats.com.
Boston Bruins
There is a 47% chance that the Sabres will face the Boston Bruins in the first round. They are in the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with 98 points and one game remaining. The Sabres were 1-1-2 in the season series, with 11 goals for and 12 against. This series could be very close.
On paper, the Bruins don’t jump off the page like the Sabres. They have David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman producing at high levels, but what about everyone else? Morgan Geekie leads the team in goals with 38, Pavel Zacha recorded his first-career 30-plus goal season, and Viktor Ardvisson has recorded 53 points in 68 games played.
The Bruins would make for a tough matchup for the Sabres in a seven-game series, especially if their goaltending is good. However, the Sabres are faster with a couple more star-driven players, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been a pleasant surprise in net with a .909 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.56 goals-against average (GAA). He will be the X-factor in any playoff series.
Who has the edge:
- Forwards: Sabres
- Defense: Sabres
- Goaltending: Sabres
Ottawa Senators
There is a 27% chance that Buffalo plays the Ottawa Senators in Round 1. The Senators are a sneaky-good team with a solid roster built by general manager Steve Staios. The Sabres won two games, and the Senators won one in the regular-season series.
The Senators are led by captain Brady Tkachuk, with 59 points in 60 games after he missed some time due to an injury earlier this season. The Senators have no shortage of goal scoring, which is where the Sabres could run into trouble. Tim Stutzle leads the way with 83 points in 80 games, followed by Drake Batherson, with 69 points in 78 games.
Related: Sabres Week Ahead: Schedule & Storylines – Division Title Is in Reach & More
The Sabres have the edge in both defense and goaltending. The Senators’ defense is banged up. Their leader on the blue line, Thomas Chabot, suffered a broken arm on March 23 and was expected to miss four to eight weeks. However, he returned to action in the team’s win against the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, after missing only 17 days.
Other injuries to the blue line include Jake Sanderson, who is back in the lineup; Tyler Kleven, who is week-to-week; Dennis Gilbert, who is day-to-day; and Nick Jensen, who is expected to miss the rest of the season.
The Senators have also seen subpar goaltending for most of the season. Linus Ullmark has dealt with off-ice issues and had to step away from the team. Ullmark has a 2.73 GAA and an .891 SV%, which is not great. If he can return to his form from last season, no team will want to face Ottawa in the playoffs.
Who has the edge:
- Forwards: Sabres
- Defense: Sabres
- Goaltending: Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
There’s a 20% chance the Sabres and Montreal Canadiens meet in the First Round. This would be a great matchup because the pace of play is much faster against the Canadiens, and there’s more open ice. The season series was split 2-2, with goals for and against tied at 13 each.
This wouldn’t be an easy matchup, especially with Cole Caufield, who ranks second in the league in goals (51), Nick Suzuki, who leads the team with 101 points, Lane Hutson, who has 78 points from the blue line, and rookie sensation Ivan Demidov, who is among the rookie leaders in goals (19) and points (62).
Not to mention they are a deep team, with Noah Dobson, who was acquired from the New York Islanders in the offseason, and Juraj Salfkovsky, who scored his 30th goal of the season this week. The position to watch, though, is goaltending. Jakub Dobes has been solid for the Canadiens with a .903 SV% in 42 games this season.
This series is the one I’m most looking forward to.
Who has the edge:
- Forwards: Sabres
- Defense: Sabres
- Goaltending: Sabres
Tampa Bay Lightning
There is only a 7% chance that the Sabres play the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1. The Lightning are a veteran-led team, with a potential Jack Adams Award finalist in head coach Jon Cooper, and a potential Hart Trophy and Art Ross Trophy finalist in Nikita Kucherov. There’s also veteran captain Victor Hedman and a potential Vezina Trophy finalist in goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Sabres won three games and the Lightning won one in the season series. The Lightning are a top-heavy team with four players recording 70-plus points: Kucherov (128), Jake Guentzel (87), Brandon Hagel (74), and Darren Raddysh (70). However, after that, there’s a tremendous drop off with only two players over the 40-point mark.
Tampa Bay also relies heavily on their Hall of Fame goaltender, Vasilevskiy, who has returned to form this season. He’s recorded a 2.30 GAA and a .913 SV%. The key for the Sabres will be to get traffic in front and score from the dirty areas of the ice.
The Sabres went toe-to-toe with the Lightning in a crazy 8-7 game in Buffalo on March 8, and they took back the division in a 4-2 win on April 6. Can Buffalo win a seven-game series against a playoff-experienced team like the Lightning? I think so.
Who has the edge:
- Forwards: Sabres
- Defense: Sabres
- Goaltending: Lightning
The team and the city have waited 14 seasons to return to the playoffs, and they will be ready no matter who they face in Round 1. Get ready, Buffalo, playoff hockey is finally back!
