The 2025-26 NHL regular season is coming to a close. For some teams, it’s already in the books, and Vezina Trophy resumes have been finalized. Now is the transition from tracking to predicting.
In the previous tracker, we discussed that this was a tight two-goalie race to the finish. Barring a surprise, Andrei Vasilevskiy or Ilya Sorokin will take home the hardware. Here we’ll look at them both one last time, and then predict who will win the Trophy. Also, a likely fellow finalist will be discussed.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy had his struggles after the Olympic Break, but the Tampa Bay Lightning netminder has had a strong April to finish out the season. In six starts this month, he’s posted a .912 save percentage (SV%), allowing three goals or fewer in each game.
The Lightning have gone 4-2-0 with him in net down the stretch, beating key opponents to clinch a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division and home ice in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He stood tall against the Boston Bruins twice and put together strong efforts against the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings.
Vasilevskiy has a 24.7 goals above expected (GSAx), which is good for fourth in the NHL this season. It’s also a solid uptick from the 22.2 GSAx he had during the previous check-in two weeks ago. He leads the NHL in wins with 39, and his season-long .912 SV% ranked third. His 2.31 goals-against average (GAA) ranks second.
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
Ilya Sorokin will still have many in his corner heading into award season. That being said, he stumbled down the stretch. He had an .851 SV% in April, allowing four goals or more three times. The Islanders went 1-4-0 with him between the pipes, and they fell six points short of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs after sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division on April 1. They lost that spot to the Philadelphia Flyers by seven points.
Related: NHL 2025-26 Power Rankings: Week 24
Sorokin posted a 25.3 GSAx this season, good enough for the third-best in the NHL. However, it’s quite the dip from his 29.7 during the previous check-in. He finished tied for ninth in the NHL in wins with 29. He and Vasilevskiy tied with a .912 SV%, and his 2.68 GAA ranked 20th.
Honorable Mention: Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson built a strong case to be a Vezina winner, but he will be on the outside looking in. In five games in April, he posted a .913 SV%, and the Washington Capitals went 4-1-0 in that stretch. The Capitals missed the playoffs by two points despite a four-game winning streak to end the season.
Thompson led the NHL with a 29.3 GSAx, which was a respectable uptick from the 28.2 GSAx he had two weeks ago, and he finished with an identical season-long save percentage to Vasilevskiy and Sorokin (.912). His 2.44 GAA was the fourth-best in the league.
He should be a finalist and may even get some first-place and second-place votes. But that’s the best-case scenario for him.
Vezina Trophy Winner
The three finalists are goalies with very similar stats, and two of them are the frontrunners. The whole season matters. It should, and that’s why this still feels like a bit of a toss-up. But if there is a tie-breaker, it should be how everything played out.
In the end, one goalie had a strong finish that propelled his team into the playoffs. Another’s late stumble coincided with his team missing the postseason. This season’s winner will be the one who has, surprisingly, only taken home the trophy once before.
2025-26 Vezina Trophy Finalists: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ilya Sorokin, Logan Thompson
2025-26 Vezina Trophy Winner: Andrei Vasilevskiy
