The Buffalo Sabres concluded their regular season on Wednesday, April 15, closing out with a final record of 50-23-9. That record was good enough for a grand total of 109 points, which ranks them first in the Atlantic Division and second in the Eastern Conference. As the last few games down the stretch came to pass, it brought to light all of the good and all of the issues that they will have to pay attention to come playoff time this weekend.
If they want to have success against the Boston Bruins in their first round matchup, and hopefully beyond that, there are at least three aspects of their game that they need to clean up.
Goaltending Struggles
Goaltending had been one of their stronger points over the course of the season. Alex Lyon and Ukko Pekka Luukkonen shared the net and mostly put up similar numbers, but head coach Lindy Ruff tended to favor Lyon when needed. As a whole, Lyon put up some solid numbers, having a 20-10-4 record, a 2.77 goals-against average (GAA), a .907 save percentage (SV%), and also managed to have three shutouts. Luukonen similarly posted a 22-9-3 record, along with a career high 2.52 GAA, a solid .910 SV%, and one shutout. They split the workload nearly down the middle as Lyon played 36 games, and Luukkonen 35, but that was due to the fact that one usually was covering for the other when they ran cold.
Towards the end of the season, things got a little dicey on the goaltending front. Lyon was not playing well, as in his last five games played, he posted a 2-2-1 record, a 3.60 GAA, and a .847 SV%. He was not looking like himself, and it got him pulled one night, and sat for a few others before unfortunately getting injured in practice recently.
Then, there has been Luukkonen, who has looked much steadier in his last five games, posting a 4-1-0 record, a 2.21 GAA and a .901 SV%. With the continued trend of “play the hot goalie”, Luukkonen is the likely starter for the playoffs, but if he runs cold, praying for Lyon to return to full game form will be a rough time, especially considering the third-string in Colten Ellis is not exactly a playoff-ready goalie.
Winning Faceoffs
Another season passes, and the Sabres still cannot figure out how to win more draws. With the season over, the final number is in, and they finished dead last in the faceoff dot with an overall average of 45.9%. With them going up against the Bruins in the first round of the playoffs, a team that has a 53.1% faceoff percentage (ranked fourth in the league), they will be playing at a heavy disadvantage. Starting with possession and winning draws can really swing the momentum for a team in the playoffs. Having that first touch and being able to set up without defending nearly as much gives a very distinct advantage, and the Sabres barely ever had it all season long.
Their best faceoff merchant was Sam Carrick, who was acquired at the trade deadline, but seeing as he will not be available for the start of Round 1, they will have to use their usual suspects in Ryan McLeod, Josh Norris, and Tage Thompson. All of them posted numbers below the 50% mark, with Norris being the closest at 49.5%. With that in mind, expect him and McLeod (47.7%) to be the ones taking most of the pressure faceoffs in the coming weeks. It is plain and simple, they need to win more draws if they want to succeed.
The Power Play… PLEASE
I have been harping on this (as well as so many others have) for the entirety of the season. The fact that the power play finished with a 19.5% conversion rate, and was ranked 21st overall in the NHL is a baffling miracle. The way the team moves when they have the man advantage versus 5-on-5 is painful to watch. It makes even me sit there and watch wanting the team to decline the penalty so they don’t embarrass and handicap themselves… again.
It is the same formula over and over again. Swing up the side boards towards the middle of the neutral zone, then drop pass to their own blue line while a “speeding” player picks up the puck. Then that same player attempts to either walk through a wall of six players stacked up on the opposing blue line, or a pass is made along the line to a winger to enter the zone. IF they are able to complete their entry, the predictability and terrible play continue. Passes are tossed along the boards between the high defender (usually Rasmus Dahlin) and the perimeter wingers (Thompson, Norris, and Josh Doan), while the bumper player (Jason Zucker) waits in the slot.
Rarely is a pass made to the bumper player unless they are wide open. Instead, they get made along the boards, or with three players stacked at the point (for some reason), until eventually a half effort shot is made from the point, a one timer from Thompson is blasted wide, and all the way down the ice, or Norris shoots into the defender’s leg, forcing them all to reset.
If they do somehow convert, it was not because the play was drawn up well or because the system worked as intended. The only times this team was able to find success on the power play was when capitalizing quickly on opposition’s mistakes, and by the sheer will and talent of some of the players on the man advantage units (Zucker and Doan being the two biggest threats with 10 and nine goals, respectively).
If at any point, an opposing team has a decent system, they will be able to shut down the Sabres’ attack on the power play. Their first opponent, as Boston has a 76.9% (ranked 25th overall) penalty kill in the NHL, sadly, may be more than enough to shut them down if they do not figure it out and adjust their strategy to be more mobile and threatening.
Quick Fixes For Each
The goaltending issue is a toss-up until the games start being played. With Luukkonen having no playoff experience, there is no way to tell if he will crack under the pressure or not. The safest bet is to play him and find out. The faceoff issue is a bit trickier, as it is a skill-based problem that needs to be fixed more long-term. Since all they can do is work with what they have, their best strategy in this case would be to find ideal matchups between faceoff styles and use the appropriate centermen, or to continue building their transition game to defend, and then push an attack with an assumed faceoff loss.
Related: How the Sabres Stack up Against Potential 1st-Round Opponents
The power play is both a simple and complicated fix. The easiest solution would be in a coach who specializes in power-play success. Someone like Bruce Boudreau would be a stellar fit, as most of the teams he coached averaged power-play percentages between 22-24%.
If they choose to stick with their current coaching staff, the adjustment is very simple. Move the puck, get players to the net, and stop being so static with the movement of the players. There is so much standing around when the Sabres have the man advantage; it is infuriating to watch. Pass with a purpose, move the puck around, and shoot from different angles to keep the goalies guessing. The Sabres do not have a lot of room for mistakes and poor performances. If they want to be a top team in the East, they need to come out playing like one.
