The NHL has been a tale of two stories when it comes to the playoff push this season. The Eastern Conference was a gauntlet, with 5-6 teams battling for the last couple of spots.
The East was more competitive all season long, and that, in turn, made it more difficult for teams to clinch a spot in the postseason.
With every Round 1 matchup set in the Eastern Conference, it’s time for me to bring back my Series Predictions column and dive into every series and who I believe will come out on top.
Buffalo Sabres (A1) vs. Boston Bruins (WC1)
Sabres in six games
They finally did it. For the first time since 2011, the Buffalo Sabres are headed back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Not only did this team just “make” the playoffs, they dominated their way to first place in the toughest division in hockey. There’s a feeling throughout this organization right now that has them on a train with a full head of steam, and something tells me they aren’t going to be going home soon.
The Boston Bruins are sneaky and never an easy out. They have the best goaltender in this series in Jeremy Swayman and the best overall player in David Pastrnak. The question is, are those two enough against an extremely elite Sabres offense that ranked fifth in the NHL for goals for per game? I don’t like the odds. The only area I think the Bruins have the advantage in is experience. There’s a chance they are able to take advantage of a super young and inexperienced Sabres group and really force that aggressive, playoff-style hockey, but it’s not enough for me to bet on the Bruins.
The Sabres have the stronger forward group (a more skilled group), probably the best puck-moving defensive group in the NHL, and have gotten solid performances out of both Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon.
There’s a lot of mojo in Buffalo right now, the Sabres are rolling, and the Bruins are in the danger zone.
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (A3)
Lightning in seven games
This will probably be the tightest first round series in the East, and I could very well see either team taking it. I’d be surprised if this series doesn’t go the full length because both teams have been very good all season long.
I like what the Montreal Canadiens have built here, and I think this is a core that’s going to be very dangerous for years to come, but it’s really hard for me to bet against the Tampa Bay Lightning with what they have. A one-man wrecking crew in Nikita Kucherov, who has had an unbelievable season, and of course, the best goaltender by far in Andrei Vasilevskiy. This is a group that knows how to win, with a coach that knows how to win, and has a core that has experience winning. Aside from Kucherov, the Lightning still have elite guys like Jake Guentzel, who had 88 points, Brandon Hagel, who collected 74, and Darren Raddysh, who scored 20-plus goals as a defenseman (third most out of any defenseman).
Noah Dobson is expected to miss time, and Jakub Dobes has three career playoff starts with an overall save percentage of .881. The Lightning power play has been electric all season, and it was the third-best league-wide. If the Canadiens get into penalty trouble, their regular season penalty kill percentage doesn’t exactly offer the best confidence in being able to shut down the Lightning on the man advantage.
It’ll be tight, but I think the Lightning have the edge and should be able to top the Habs.
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC2)
Senators in seven games
The Ottawa Senators had to have the greatest run towards securing a playoff spot. They didn’t have to rely on other teams losing; they were just focused on themselves and finished off March and April super strong. This team is hot at the right time, and they have already implemented that hard-nosed, aggressive forecheck style to their game. That’s going to be key when going up against a very well-structured Carolina Hurricanes defensive group.
The big question mark here for the Senators, and ultimately what will make or break this series for them, is Linus Ullmark. There’s no doubt he has struggled a fair amount this season, and when the Senators have to worry about the reliability of Ullmark, it doesn’t end well. That being said, he finished the season strong, which is the most important thing and if that version of Ullmark is the one who shows up for the playoffs, the Senators are going to be a tough bunch to get by. On the other hand, it’s not like the Hurricanes have the greatest goaltending either. Both Brandon Bussi and Frederik Andersen have struggled at times as well.
The Hurricanes are perennial Cup contenders, almost always certain to make an appearance in the conference finals. Once again, not going to be shocked if the Hurricanes manage to get it done, but with the way the Senators play, the way they finished the season, and the fact that they have players who can grind you out and produce offense leads me to believe that this will be a team that can make some noise in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (M3)
Penguins in six games
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are back for another run, and what better way than to kick it off with the Battle of Pennsylvania. The Pittsburgh Penguins have got to be the most surprising playoff team this season, based on the sole fact that no one thought they would be as good as they were. An aging core, mediocre depth, not the strongest defensive group on paper, and a goaltending tandem that doesn’t exactly strike fear into the other team.
We all know Stuart Skinner’s playoff history with the Edmonton Oilers and the struggles he has had in important moments. Arturs Silovs had a generational playoff debut with the Vancouver Canucks a couple of seasons ago, so I guess the question is, who will the Penguins decide to go with? Both had relatively similar numbers. I’m not crazy about the Flyers’ goaltending either, so I don’t think either team has that much of an advantage.
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The Philadelphia Flyers barely snuck in but have a sneaky good roster, a lot of young, skilled talent, and their speed could pose a threat to an older, slower Penguins team. This is also a team that is coached by Rick Tocchet, and you know that comes with a defensive structure that’s hard to penetrate. The inexperience is of concern for the Flyers as well, which doesn’t help their case.
Special teams are huge, and it would be a crime not to mention the difference between these two teams when it comes to both the penalty kill and power play. The Penguins’ penalty kill and power play were both the seventh best in the NHL this season while the Flyers’ power play was ranked dead last and their penalty kill was in the bottom 11. It’s not the end-all or be-all, but the Penguins do have a massive special teams advantage.
Sid doesn’t have many years left, and I don’t think he’s getting bounced by the Pens’ biggest rivals in Round 1.
