The playoff race in the Eastern Conference was something else this season, wasn’t it? You’d be right in feeling like every contender couldn’t stop winning. Even heading into the postseason, all eight of the qualified Eastern Conference teams finished with a .500 record or better across their last 15 games.
Technically, everyone is “hot” entering the postseason in the East. That makes this exercise a bit more difficult than last season, but let’s look at who’s playing the best and may have the most sustainable formula to advance deep into the playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are a wagon. They finished the season with 53 wins and 113 points, securing first place in the East. They closed out the season on the right foot, finishing with an 11-3-1 record across their last 15 games. That’s a point percentage of .767, which ranked first among all NHL teams across the last 15 games.
As has been the case every season under head coach Rod Brind’Amour, the Hurricanes have been dominant at five-on-five. They totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 56.75 percent across their final 15 contests, ranking them third in the NHL over that stretch, and they’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams all season.
Although the Hurricanes are a legitimate threat to win the East, the same question marks remain. Will Brandon Bussi and/or Frederik Andersen be good enough to carry them through the playoffs? They have the second-worst five-on-five save percentage in the NHL across their last 15 games. What about scoring? Do they have enough game-breaking talent up front?
The East will not be a cakewalk this season, and the Hurricanes have a tough first-round opponent in the Ottawa Senators. But at the very least, they’re playing high-level hockey heading into the postseason.
Philadelphia Flyers
Did you know that the Philadelphia Flyers’ point percentage of .733 across their last 15 games is tied for second to the Hurricanes in the NHL? Well, now you do. The Flyers played great hockey to close the season, finishing with an 11-4-0 record. It’s why they ended up stealing Metro3 from the New York Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Flyers’ five-on-five numbers are also on par with the Hurricanes. They have an xG% of 57.46 percent across their last 15 games, and they’ve been a two-way force. They’re creating 2.74 expected goals per 60 minutes while allowing just 2.03 per 60.
Would I pick the Flyers to win the East? I wouldn’t, but they could be a sleeper team. They’ve been playing better hockey than the Pittsburgh Penguins, their first-round opponent, heading into the postseason. It wouldn’t shock me if they advance at least a round.
Buffalo Sabres
Rejoice, Buffalo Sabres fans. The drought is over. This Sabres team is no joke, either. They’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NHL for months, and they closed out the year on the right foot. The Sabres went 9-3-3 across their last 15 games, placing them right behind the Montreal Canadiens, Hurricanes, and Flyers in points percentage in the East.
Most of the Sabres’ peripherals look good, too. They have an xG% of 51.08 percent across their last 15 games, and they’re playing good two-way hockey. They’re allowing 2.48 expected goals per 60 minutes while generating 2.59. Also working in their favor is that they’ve drawn the Boston Bruins as their first-round opponent.
We’ll get into the Bruins in a bit, but they’ve been one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL this season. There’s reason to believe the Sabres can at least advance a round in their first postseason appearance in 15 years, but there’s potential for more.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens might be the model franchise for how to do a rebuild right. They’ve drafted well, hit on most of their NHL acquisitions, and have a good coach in Marty St. Louis. The Canadiens have also been playing decent hockey over their last 15 games, totaling a record of 11-4-0, but there are some concerns.
Unlike the previously mentioned teams, the Canadiens’ five-on-five numbers over their last 15 games are toward the bottom of the league. They have an xG% of 47.29 percent, ranked 24th in the NHL. Their defense has been leaky, as they’re allowing 2.86 expected goals per 60 minutes.
Related: Canadiens Players Are Thriving Under Martin St. Louis
Those defensive concerns could haunt them against a potent Tampa Bay Lightning team in the first round. Their playoff stay could be quick if they don’t tighten up against a dangerous Lightning team, but there’s no doubt they have a bright future.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference for good reason. They have a stacked roster. They’re playing well coming into the postseason, having totaled an 8-5-2 record across their last 15 games. Their five-on-five numbers have also been among the best in the NHL.
The Lightning come into the first round of the playoffs having totaled an xG% of 55.56 percent across their last 15 games. That’s a stark difference from the Canadiens. It’s why they could make quick work of the Canadiens in the first round, but it’s not the only reason.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a Vezina-worthy season. At the very least, he could be a finalist for the Vezina, even if he doesn’t win it. We obviously know he has plenty of championship pedigree, and it’s part of why this team is a favorite to win the East.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators have a tough first-round matchup against the Hurricanes, but they’re playing great hockey. They’ve more or less been in playoff mode for two months, and they’ve battled through injuries to clinch their second consecutive playoff berth. They enter the playoffs with a 9-4-2 record across their last 15 games.
Although the Senators are WC2 in the East, do not sleep on them. They have been a dominant five-on-five team this season and continued that over their last 15 games, totaling an xG% of 53.36 percent. The key for the Senators will be getting at least average goaltending.
Linus Ullmark has had one of the worst seasons of his career. He finished the 2025-26 campaign with an .891 save percentage and allowed 12.8 goals above expected. However, he did come around in his final 15 appearances, totaling a .902 SV%. He will need to play to that level or better to help the Senators upset the Hurricanes, whose goaltending could be a liability in the playoffs.
Boston Bruins
Are the Bruins hot? It depends on your perspective. They’re 8-4-3 across their last 15 games, but they also come into the playoffs having lost five of their last seven games. Their five-on-five numbers are not pretty, either. They have an xG% of 47.42 percent across their last 15 games, and they’ve been bleeding quality chances, allowing 3.03 expected goals per 60 minutes.
Perhaps they can win a round, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Their best chance at upsetting the Sabres will be Jeremy Swayman stealing the series in net. He ranks in the top three of the NHL in goals saved above expected, and you could easily argue he should be a Vezina nominee. They may have had a decent record over their final 15 games, but the peripherals aren’t good, and they have a difficult first-round opponent.
Pittsburgh Penguins
From potential Gavin McKenna winners to second place in the Metropolitan Division. No team has defied expectations more than the Penguins this season. Unlike the Bruins, their process suggests their winning has been more sustainable.
The Penguins have an xG% of 51.33 percent across their last 15 games; they’ve been above 51 percent for much of the season. They may only have a 7-7-1 record over that stretch, but they have not been playing poorly. There are a couple of reasons for their .500 record. One) They have been resting their star players to close out the season. Two) Goaltending has been a problem.
Arturs Silovs and Stuart Skinner have had trouble stopping the puck down the stretch. I think the Penguins are a better team than the Flyers, but goaltending could cost them that series. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Skinner has made it to two consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. He may not be the reason for that, but he has plenty of playoff experience, and the Penguins have shown they can outscore their porous goaltending.
TierMaking the East
As you can see, all these teams are playing quite well entering the playoffs, but not all of them are Stanley Cup contenders. In reality, there are only two, maybe three, teams that can win the conference each season. This season, the Stanley Cup contenders in the East are:
The Lightning are the most well-rounded team from top to bottom. The Hurricanes’ roster isn’t far off, but I am concerned about their goaltending. Only the Vancouver Canucks had a worse five-on-five save percentage than the Hurricanes over their last 15 games. It could come back to haunt them.
If we had to create a second tier of teams that you could consider as threats, it’d go as follows:
- Sabres
- Senators
- Canadiens
Depending on where you look for Stanley Cup odds, the Sabres and Senators have the third and fourth-best odds to win the East. While I don’t love the Canadiens’ five-on-five numbers heading into the playoffs, there’s no denying they have the talent. It’s unfortunate they have to play the best team in the East in the first round (don’t get me started on this playoff format), but you can’t rule them out if they somehow pull off the upset.
Finally, there’s the long shots:
While all three of these teams have been nice stories this season, they don’t appear to have the horses to make deep runs. They have been winning games heading into the postseason, and some of their five-on-five numbers have been impressive (the Flyers), but their rosters don’t stack up well compared to the Lightning, Hurricanes, and even the Sabres. It’ll be interesting to see how this all unfolds once the playoffs get underway.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck
