2026 NFL Draft: Red flags, sleepers and biggest questions

The 2026 NFL Draft class is nothing if not unique. I’ve referred to it as an evaluators draft throughout the spring because almost no prospect comes without red flags in his profile. To top it off, the strongest position group in the class, linebacker, is one that’s been devalued at the NFL level and rarely goes early anymore.

I’m not even going to try to act like I know how this draft is going to play out, but that’s exactly what makes it one of the most interesting drafts I can remember. No one has any clue what’s going to happen this year.

The fatal flaws of the EDGE class

Your favorite edge rusher in this class probably has a glaring red flag that could limit his success at the next level. With Rueben Bain Jr. and Cashius Howell, it’s obviously the sub-31-inch arms. With Arvell Reese, it’s the lack of reps. With David Bailey, it’s his bend and play vs. the run. With Keldric Faulk, it’s his production. With R Mason Thomas, it’s his size. With Akheem Mesidor, it’s his age and modest tools. And that goes on down the line.

If they are all flawed, how do we stack them up? As I do with every position in the NFL Draft, I prefer the prospects who still produced despite their flaws. That’s why Bain tops my list. His 30⅞-inch arms were such weapons on tape at Miami that it’s hard to see them suddenly becoming a huge issue in the NFL.

Reese checks in next because he produced when called upon as a pass rusher, and he never even got practice reps doing it. He was so freaky that it didn’t matter. That bodes well for what will happen when the 20-year-old gets a full workload rushing the passer.

After those two, Bailey and Mesidor are the only other edge rushers in my top 32. There’s no doubt when you watch their tape that they produced. While I think they have more worrisome athletic limitations than Bain and Reese, they are both more than capable athletes who can get the job done in the NFL.

Tackle or guard?

There’s a real chance the 2026 draft ties the 2024 draft for the modern record with nine offensive linemen coming off the board in the first round. Whether we see seven offensive tackles taken in Round 1, though, will come down to how you categorize them. Three of the top offensive linemen in this draft, and potentially the top three off the board, all come with questions about whether they project best at tackle or guard in the NFL.

Kadyn Proctor

BAMA • OT • #74

Five sacks and 36 pressures allowed over past two seasons (12 sacks and 36 pressures allowed as freshman in 2023)

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At nearly 6-feet-7 with 33⅜-inch arms, there’s nothing from a frame perspective that suggests Kadyn Proctor would be better suited at guard than tackle besides his listed weight. While the recent track record of Alabama tackles drafted in the top 10 — J.C. Latham, Evan Neal and Jedrick Wills — isn’t helping him in evaluators’ eyes, it’s worth noting that coach Kalen DeBoer brought a much more pass-happy attack to Tuscaloosa. In fact, Proctor had the second-most true pass sets of any tackle in college football last year.

From a performance perspective, most of his worrisome reps in the pass game came early in the season, when he admittedly was playing heavier than he should have been. Later in the season, that was no issue. He handled Oklahoma speed-rusher R Mason Thomas in their matchup, which is a great litmus test to me for whether he’d need to kick inside. Because of that, he’s sticking at tackle until I’m shown otherwise in the NFL.

Verdict: Tackle

While Proctor’s potential move to guard was tied to athleticism, Spencer Fano’s decidedly is not. For my money, he’s the single best mover in the offensive line class. His 4.91-second 40-yard dash and 7.34-second 3-cone at the NFL Scouting Combine back that up.

Fano’s move to the interior revolves entirely around his hotly contested arm length. He went from measuring 32⅛-inch arms — which would be the shortest of any tackle in the NFL — at the combine to 32⅞-inch arms — which are in range with numerous current starting tackles — at his pro day. We may never know his true arm length, but there’s another data point that makes me think he won’t be a Will Campbell situation. Fano’s wingspan measured 80¼ inches at the combine. That’s nearly 3 inches longer than Campbell’s and even longer than All-Pro tackle Rashawn Slater.

Given how well Fano can mitigate his length issues with his quickness, there’s little reason to think he has to move inside in the NFL.

Verdict: Tackle

From a purely aesthetic standpoint, Francis Mauigoa presents as the most guard-like. He carries most of his 329 pounds in his lower half, and it shows in the run game. While his foot speed is more than adequate to stay at tackle, locating in space is easily one of the weakest parts of his game. On the flip side, his biggest strength is his ability to end reps early when he gets his vise-grip hands on defenders.

That combination makes me think his ceiling is clearly higher at guard, and that’s where I’d start him early on. He can certainly be a starting tackle, but I don’t think his ceiling would be nearly as high there.

Verdict: Guard

Contextualizing age

This class, more than any I can remember, will test how well the NFL can project developmental curves. That’s because there’s a healthy share of 20-year-olds as well as 24-plus-year-olds among the top 50 picks. The top prospects who won’t be able to legally drink on draft day are as follows:

• Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame — 20.90 years old on April 23
• Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami — 20.88
• Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama — 20.88
• Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina — 20.81
• Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee — 20.68
• Connor Lew, IOL, Auburn — 20.65
• Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State — 20.65
• Keldric Faulk, EDGE/DL, Auburn — 20.63

No, those aren’t typos. Mauigoa and Proctor share the same birthday (June 4), as do Lew and Reese (Aug. 30).

On the flip side, here’s a list of potential top 100 picks who are close to or already able to legally rent a car:

• Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami — 25.05
• Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech — 25.03
• Keagen Trost, IOL, Missouri — 25.02
• Keionte Scott, CB, Miami — 24.70
• Nate Boerkircher, TE, Texas A&M — 24.63
• Treydan Stukes, CB, Arizona — 24.61
• Emmanuel Pregnon, IOL, Oregon — 24.55
• Logan Jones, IOL, Iowa — 24.48
• Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU — 24.21
• Zakee Wheatley, S, Penn State — 24.15

That’s 10 guys, with a handful more who should come off the board early on Day 3. When evaluating 20-year-olds compared with 24-plus-year-olds, it’s important to remember it’s not apples to apples. The skill and physical development from someone’s redshirt sophomore year to his redshirt senior year is typically substantial. With guys like Pregnon or Stukes, we got to see the more finished product in a way we didn’t with Lew and Cisse.

For me, the finished product for players like Mesidor and Stukes already looks like a plus NFL starter, so I don’t worry too much about what’s left in their development. But when I still have questions about how someone’s game will translate and he is already five or six years into his college career, I’ll err on the side of youth.

One-year wonder QBs

With the Ty Simpson buzz reaching a crescendo, along with some interesting takes in the national media earlier this month, his draft range seems to have the widest spread of anyone heading into Round 1. That’s because so many people differ on what to make of a quarterback who only impressed for one year (really more like nine games).

Bill Parcells’ famous quarterback rules are clear about which side of the debate he’d fall on: three-year starter, 30-plus starts and 23-plus wins were a must. The Big Tuna saw how much in-game experience mattered at the most complex position in all of sports. The modern track record tends to back that up.

Here’s how recent first-round quarterbacks with limited starting experience have fared:

• Anthony Richardson (No. 4 overall, 2023)
• Trey Lance (No. 3 overall, 2021)
• Mac Jones (No. 15 overall, 2021)
• Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall, 2019)
• Dwayne Haskins (No. 15 overall, 2019)
• Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2 overall, 2017)
• Ryan Tannehill (No. 8 overall, 2012)
• Cam Newton (No. 1 overall, 2011)

The biggest success story is obviously Cam Newton, but even he started a year in junior college. Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill have had successful seasons in their careers, although I’m not sure their respective fan bases would take either again if given a do-over.

So how does Simpson’s tape stack up to those who came before him? While I wasn’t formally scouting when Tannehill and Newton were prospects, Simpson’s pro-readiness clearly trumps that of Richardson, Lance and Haskins. He’s much more physically gifted than Mac Jones and arguably on par with Trubisky, although with a smaller frame. I compared his capabilities to Fernando Mendoza’s earlier this draft season and remain confident Simpson will be a first-rounder.

Cole Payton

NDST • QB • #9

2025: Set NDSU single-season records for pass efficiency (193.8), yards per attempt (12.1) and total offense (268.9 yards per game, 9.71 yards per play)

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An underrated aspect of this quarterback class is that Simpson isn’t the only one-year wonder. North Dakota State’s Cole Payton fits that mold. While Payton was in his fifth year and Lance was in his second in their lone seasons as signal-callers for the Bison, there’s no comparison statistically. Payton wiped the floor with Lance’s efficiency numbers, as you can see below:

Payton was not only accurate on tape, he showed high-end athleticism and a solid NFL arm. He doesn’t have the intriguing youth or the cannon that Lance had, but Payton should easily be a top-five quarterback off the board this weekend.

2026 NFL Draft QB mock: Predicting landing spot for the top 10 quarterbacks

John Breech

Who is WR1?

This year is the most hotly contested WR1 class I can remember. Five different receivers all have a legitimate case to be WR1. Each has a distinct trait he does better than the other four, so it ultimately comes down to what you value most.

These are tough calls, especially without projecting a specific scheme or role. In the end, I tend to lean toward separators. It’s the hardest part of playing receiver. That’s why Concepcion ended up as my WR1. He’s a supreme athlete who can get open at every level of the field and a much tougher route runner than his 196 pounds suggest. As long as you get the role right in this draft class, though, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the five listed above.

The drops are real, but KC Concepcion is a first-round pick

Dave Richard

Sleepers

First off, don’t be the sleeper police. No one likes the sleeper police. I’ll admit some of these aren’t deep cuts, so I’ll explain why I included each. These are prospects who are under the radar for one reason or another and deserve more recognition.

Eli Heidenreich is everyone’s favorite Day 3 running back. I included him because when most people hear “Navy” and “draft,” they’re more likely to think of World War II than the NFL, but Heidenreich is out to change that. No Navy prospect has gone in the top 100 since guard Bob Reifsnyder was selected No. 45 overall by the Los Angeles Rams in 1959! The closest the program has come since is running back Napoleon McCallum, who went No. 108 overall to the Los Angeles Raiders in 1986.

I’m not saying Heidenreich will go in the top 100, but he should at least come off the board before a long snapper. He’s the best receiver in the running back class. Heck, receiver may even be his best position in the NFL after catching 51 passes for 941 yards last season. I’m intrigued by his potential physical development without the cardio rigors of the Naval Academy. From a testing standpoint, he was nearly identical to Christian McCaffrey coming out.

He’ll be a very interesting prospect to track throughout his career.

Nate Boerkircher isn’t exactly a deep sleeper, coming from a blue-blood program and off an impressive Senior Bowl. I included him because he’s never been a full-time starter in college, yet I think he could become one in the NFL. 

He has exceptional ball skills (ask Notre Dame fans) and posted the second-fastest 10-yard split in the tight end class (1.58 seconds) behind Kenyon Sadiq. At the Senior Bowl, he was clearly the best tight end in one-on-ones. I don’t know where he’ll go, but he’ll find a role wherever he lands.

Kaleb Proctor is another small-school prospect gaining traction. I see more than just a fun Day 3 pick, though, as he checked in at No. 71 on my final board. He has elite twitch, shown by his 4.79 40-yard dash, 1.68 10-yard split and 9-foot-5 broad jump at the combine. His competition level was low, but he showed the same high-end pass-rushing ability against LSU last fall and at Shrine Bowl practices. You can’t coach what he has.

While Proctor has drawn plenty of attention in this defensive tackle class, Jayden Loving is still flying under the radar despite freaky testing numbers of his own. At 6-foot-1 and 309 pounds, he ran a 4.82 40-yard dash with a 1.64 10-yard split. He also posted a 35-inch vertical, a 7.15 3-cone and 33 bench reps. You won’t find many better testing profiles at defensive tackle in NFL history. 

Loving bounced from Bethune-Cookman to Western Kentucky before landing at Wake Forest for one season. His explosiveness consistently showed up in the run game, where it was hard to keep him out of the backfield. He needs serious skill development, but not much to make an impact in the NFL.

If Arizona State tackle Max Iheanachor’s late start in football intrigues you, consider Bakyne Coly the Day 3 version. He began at Lawrence Tech — an NAIA school — to play basketball before switching to football. He transferred to Purdue in 2023 and finally started this past season. 

While he was rough early, he flashed late with strong reps against high-end competition like Ohio State, Washington and Indiana. He moves well for the position and has ideal size (6-foot-6, 307 pounds) and length (33¼-inch arms) to stick at tackle. He’ll be a late Day 3 pick, but he’s easily my favorite developmental tackle in the class.

Jackson Kuwatch was a former top recruit at Ohio State but got caught in a position logjam that included two top-10 picks in this year’s class. While he may not match the athletic profile of Arvell Reese or Sonny Styles, Kuwatch is still a freak in his own right. 

His 1.5 10-yard split is the fastest ever recorded for an off-ball linebacker, according to MockDraftable. That shows up on tape, where he’s incredibly nimble working through traffic at the second level. He’ll have to be a pure weakside linebacker and needs more experience, but there’s plenty to work with here.