The NFL betting highlight of the offseason is finally here as the 2026 NFL Draft begins tonight with Round 1 from Pittsburgh. There is a pretty good chance we could see an off-ball linebacker chosen in the top three picks for the first time since 2000, a safety in the top 10 for the first time since 2010 and a running back in the top five since 2018. But I’ll conclude my first-round previews with a look at by far the top tight end prospect in Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq.
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How much can a rookie tight end change a team’s offense immediately? Look at the 2025 Bears and Colts. Chicago took Colston Loveland at No. 10 overall and Indianapolis grabbed Tyler Warren at No. 14. No chance my Bears win the NFC Central without Loveland emerging as Caleb Williams’ primary target in the second half of the season. Loveland became so valuable in the passing game it made semi-overpriced wideout DJ Moore expendable, and he was traded to Buffalo for draft picks (and cap space).
The Colts were one of the league’s early surprises of the 2025 season because of the connection between quarterback Daniel Jones and Warren, who was the clear NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite for a while there. Indy was atop the AFC South. But then Jones started regressing and got hurt. The Colts cratered, and so did Warren’s numbers, although he was still named a Pro Bowler.
In 2024, Brock Bowers had arguably the greatest rookie season ever for a tight end with the Raiders, but he had no quarterback so it didn’t make a massive team difference. Bowers would have won NFL OROY most others seasons but finished second to Jayden Daniels. The year before, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta was a massive difference-maker on the Lions and finished third in OROY voting.
No tight end has won the top rookie award via the Associated Press, but I might throw a little down on the 6-foot-3, 240-pound Sadiq when those futures open, likely Friday, as long as the former Duck lands in a good spot. But there is zero question this dude is athletic enough to make some noise immediately.
Last season with playoff-bound Oregon and with future NFL quarterback Dante Moore throwing to him, Sadiq was named the Big Ten Tight End of the Year in setting career highs with 51 catches, 560 yards and eight touchdowns. The TDs were the most of any FBS tight end and the receptions a school record for the position.
There was never much doubt that Sadiq would be the second Oregon tight end to go in Round 1 in the common draft era, after Russ Francis in 1975. But Sadiq’s stock shot up at the NFL Combine when he ran a 40-yard dash of 4.39, not just the best of any player at his position this year but since at least 2003. Sadiq’s time topped the previous mark of 4.40 seconds, set by Vernon Davis in 2006 and tied by Dorin Dickerson in 2010, and he became only the third Combine player weighing at least 240 pounds to run a sub-4.4 since 2003.
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The CBS Sports Big Board ranks Sadiq as the No. 24 overall prospect and by far the top tight end prospect, with Ohio State’s Max Klare at No. 67 overall. Because there is no other tight end highly graded, you won’t find any Over/Under first-round tight end or first tight end chosen props at the various books.
NFL.com gives Sadiq a comp to current Cardinals star Trey McBride. All McBride did last year was set the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tight end with 126 and led all tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns.
The favorites to be the team to select Sadiq are the Bucs (+300), Panthers (+310), Ravens (+425), Eagles (+650) and Rams (+750). The CBS Sports mock drafts are all over the place with him, but the earliest I’ve seen among those is to Baltimore at 14, one spot after the Rams. That the Ravens use their first pick on a tight end is +425 and that the Rams do is +750.
Carolina could be scary in 2026 offensively by adding Sadiq to 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and wideout Tetairoa McMillan, the No. 8 overall pick last year. That the Panthers take a tight end with their first pick, currently No. 19, is +310.
Sadiq’s Over/Under draft spot is 15.5, with the Under at -150. Tampa Bay sits 15th. With the re-signing of starter Cade Otton and reserve Ko Kieft, the Bucs’ 2025 tight end group is back intact so that might not be the prevailing need at No. 15, but no one on the roster compares to Sadiq as a pass-catcher. Tampa Bay reportedly brought in six tight ends for official visits prior to the draft and formally interviewed seven of them at the Combine.
The first position where Sadiq is favored to be chosen in Round 1 tonight is 15th at +300 – not coincidentally the same price on the Sadiq-specific prop. To go 14th to the Ravens, he’s +425. To be a top 10 pick, Sadiq is +650 and I’ve not seen a mock draft anywhere projecting that.
Finally, there’s a head-to-head draft position prop of Sadiq (+125) vs. Southern Cal receiver Makai Lemon (-165), who is ranked as the No. 17 overall prospect at CBS Sports but the No. 2 receiver. I’d lean Lemon there.Â
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Pick:Â Sadiq Under draft spot of 15.5 (-150). He could easily go as early as No. 11 as the Fins are devoid of pass-catching playmakers having said goodbye to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
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