It likely will be another long NFL season for the fine folks in Cleveland, but their baseball team is contending yet again in the AL Central despite one of the lowest payrolls in the sport. One big reason for the Guardians’ strong start has been lefty Parker Messick, among the AL Rookie of the Year favorites. He’s on the mound for a home series opener vs. Tampa Bay with a first pitch of 6:10 ET this evening.
DraftKings same-game parlay (+116)
- Guardians Money Line
- Alt Under 10.5
The 25-year-old Messick was the No. 54 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Florida State – two other notable pitchers taken after him were Jacob Misiorowski at No. 63 by Milwaukee and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Nolan McLean at No. 81 by Baltimore but now of course with the New York Mets.
Messick was not considered a top prospect in the Guardians’ organization his first couple of seasons. But he blossomed into a top guy entering entering this year after another strong 2025 minor-league campaign and seven impressive late-season starts in The Show, going 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 innings – the cutoff to remain a rookie is 50 innings pitched.
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This spring, Messick won the No. 5 rotation spot, beating out fellow southpaw Logan Allen. And Messick has been sensational, going 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five starts. The Guardians have won all five, and you would be up $514 if you wagered $100 on them to win each of those with Messick starting.
The only pitchers who have been more profitable this season have been the Los Angeles Angels’ Jose Soriano at plus-$644 and Washington Nationals’ Foster Griffin at plus-$570, but both have had one more start than Messick. Soriano also leads the majors with a WAR of 2.6, but Messick is second among pure starting pitchers at 1.6. I say pure starting pitchers because Shohei Ohtani is among leaders, too, at 2.0.Â
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What is refreshingly different about Messick is that he’s not one of those guys who tries to hit triple digits all the time on his fastball, as Messick’s generally averages about 93 mph. He uses deception in his delivery (shows his back to the hitter) and pitch movement to fool hitters.
Per The Athletic, Messick throws six pitches: four-seamer (93.5 mph), sinker (92.5 mph), cutter (90.8 mph), change-up (85.2 mph), slider (86.9 mph) and curveball (79 mph). The cutter is a new pitch for him this season. Hitters have posted a 47.1% whiff rate against the change-up. Overall, foes are hitting only .167 against Messick, with both lefties (.188) and righties (.181) flailing.
He wasn’t on most sportsbooks’ odds boards for AL Rookie of the Year when the season began but is now a +1400 fourth favorite behind White Sox third baseman Munetaka Murakami (+170 and my spring pick), Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle (+195) and Guardians outfielder teammate Chase DeLauter (+750).
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You may remember Messick carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning April 16 vs. Baltimore but lost it almost immediately. (Cleveland hasn’t had a pitcher throw a no-no since Len Barker tossed a perfect game on May 15, 1981.) He threw a career-high 112 pitches so perhaps not a huge surprise Messick wasn’t quite as sharp last time out April 21 vs. Houston, allowing a season-high three runs over five innings. Clearly, the Guardians were wary of his previous pitch total as Messick was limited to 85 in that one.
Messick is from the Tampa area in Plant City and faced the Rays last regular season when they were playing at the Yankees’ spring complex in Tampa due to damage to Tropicana Field. Messick largely dominated his hometown team in a win, allowing one run with no walks and four strikeouts in six innings.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Messick for 5.5 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. DraftKings has him at Over/Under 17.5 outs recorded, 4.5 strikeouts, 5.5 hits, 2.5 earned runs and +140 for a win. That one was tempting.
Tampa Bay counters with veteran lefty Steven Matz (3-1, 4.81 ERA). He was shelled last time out by Cincinnati, allowing three homers and four runs in three innings of a loss.Â
Note that the winds are blowing out some in Cleveland, but I still feel pretty safe on that alt total as the model has 9.4 total runs scored. And ideally the Guardians aren’t batting in B9. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.Â
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