We could be looking at one major Stanley Cup playoff series upset as soon as Tuesday night, as the Anaheim Ducks visit Edmonton with a 3-1 lead in their Western Conference first-round matchup. But I believe Connor McDavid and the veteran Oilers, who have been in this position many times, will force a Game 6. It’s a 10 p.m. ET puck drop.
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BetRivers same-game parlay (+102)
- Oilers Money Line
- Alt Over 5.5
I have told you, both here at CBS Sports and on SportsLine, that this was going to be easily the highest-scoring series of the first round, and every game has featured at least seven goals scored – two got to double digits. Edmonton won the first at home but has dropped the past three. It blew a 2-0 second-period lead and 3-2 mid-third period lead in Sunday’s 4-3 overtime loss in Anaheim.  After a lengthy review, Ryan Poehling’s winner at 2:29 of OT stood and put the Oilers on the brink of elimination.
They were around -200 on the series line when it began, and I thought they would oust the playoff-newbie Ducks, but the goaltending has been a major, major problem. Connor Ingram had been really good toward the end of the regular season and captured Game 1 but allowed 11 combined goals in Games 2-3.Â
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Coach Kris Knoblauch opted to go with Tristan Jary, a midseason trade acquisition from Pittsburgh, in Game 4 and he was OK, stopping 34 of 38 shots. Not bad considering Jarry had faced just 71 shots in over the past six weeks after losing his starting job two months ago. The game-winner was a bit of a fluke, as Poehling scored when his attempted pass took a bounce off Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse’s skate in front of the Edmonton net and barely went through the five-hole of Jarry in his first playoff appearance since 2022.
The Oilers are simply allowing too many shots on goal. It’s not clear who will start this one, but I’d guess Jarry. He has more playoff experience. The team also needs more from McDavid, who has been held to a goal and three assists – good numbers for a normal person, but not him. He’s minus-6, and all his points have come in losses.
In recent postseasons, though, Edmonton seems to be one of those clubs that doesn’t truly lock in until the players get a bit of a wake-up call. Under Knoblauch, the team had been 11-13 in the first three games of a Western Conference playoff series and 15-1 in Games 4 through 7 until dropping Sunday’s game.
“There’s a lot of belief within that room,” Knoblauch said. “They’ve been in some pretty poor situations, and this team never quits. They’re resilient. They have a lot of fight left, and that’s when we’ve seen the best out of them. But we don’t have room for error anymore.”
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In the 2025 playoffs, the Oilers trailed the L.A. Kings 2-0 in Round 1 and Dallas 1-0 in the conference finals and won those series in six and five games, respectively. In 2024, the Oilers trailed the Vancouver Canucks 3-2 in Round 2, Dallas 2-1 in the conference finals and the Florida Panthers 3-1 in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Oilers won those first two and at least forced a Game 7 vs. Florida. In 2023, they rallied from down 2-1 in Round 1 vs. Los Angeles.
So I expect a very focused bunch tonight. The Oilers must be better on the penalty kill, as the Ducks are now 6-for-12 with the man advantage. Just no overtime, please, on Tuesday. Anaheim is now 25-15 (.625) in postseason overtime, the second-highest win percentage among all teams with a minimum of three games played.Â
Joel Quenneville earned his 124th career playoff win Sunday and overtook Al Arbour (123) for the second-most by a head coach in league history. Scotty Bowman’s record of 223 is safe.
“We’re up 3-1 and every game has been a toss-up,” Quenneville said. “Hanging in there and finding different ways, different guys, against an excellent hockey team. We’re in a position now to look ahead and only think of one game.”
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Anaheim owns an all-time record of 6-0 when taking a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series, and the team is 4-2 in Game 5s in that scenario. Edmonton is 5-4 in Game 5s when trailing a best-of-seven series 3-1 but has won the past two. McDavid (23 points) and Leon Draisaitl (19 points) rank among the top 10 for active players with the most career points in games when facing elimination. McDavid needs one point to match Alex Ovechkin for the second most and two to tie Patrick Kane for the most.Â
Draisaitl had a hat trick and five points while facing elimination against the Ducks in Game 7 of the 2017 second round. And it’s those two superstars I am really banking on tonight.Â
It’s extremely rare for me to bet an alt Over in the NHL, and especially the playoffs. But these clubs have not come to a game yet in this series with only five goals scored. Been doing really well on these hockey SGPs with Flyers-Pens cashing Monday the latest. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.Â
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