I have seven MLB matinees to choose from on a Wednesday getaway day for many teams, so really no excuse to get the picks wrong on the one I landed on. And that would be Cubs at Padres with a 4:10 first pitch, the last of the matinees. I don’t bet road baseball teams much, but this sure sets up well for Chicago facing massively struggling San Diego pitcher Matt Waldron.
DraftKings Cubs-Padres picks (FanDuel)
- Cubs First Five Innings (-120)
- Cubs Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-180)
It will depend on how old you are, but knuckleballers in the majors used to not be essentially extinct. Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey are two I especially remember, with both having very good careers, including Dickey winning the 2012 NL Cy Young Award. But for whatever reason, after those guys, we didn’t see knuckleballers in the majors other than maybe position players goofing around on the mound when their team is down double-digit runs in the ninth inning.
The Padres’ Waldron, now 30, started utilizing the pitch in the minors in 2021 and has used it consistently since entering the majors in 2023. Waldron simply hasn’t used it effectively much, as he’s a career 8-16 with a 5.19 ERA, 206 hits and 33 homers allowed in 201.1 career innings. When that knuckler doesn’t knuckle, it’s basically sitting there on a tee for batters. For example, Waldron’s career opponents’ batting average on balls In play is a very high .296.
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In two starts this season, Waldron is 0-1 with a 12.46 ERA and 2.31 WHIP – he has allowed exactly eight hits and six runs in each. Granted, those were in Denver and Anaheim, two hitter-friendly parks. Waldron hasn’t had an outing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park since 2024, as he was limited to one start in 2025 due a left oblique strain suffered just before Opening Day and then had massive struggles in the minor leagues.
In his career at Petco, Waldron is 3-8 with a 5.27 ERA in 91.0 innings, so I’m not too worried he becomes Roger Clemens this afternoon. The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 5.2 innings, 4.6 strikeouts, 5.0 hits allowed and 2.8 earned runs. DraftKings has Waldron at Over/Under 14.5 outs recorded, 3.5 strikeouts, 5.5 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs.
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The only reason Waldron is in the current rotation is because righty Nick Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain in mid-April and likely out months. Waldron started the year on the injured list himself, recovering from February hemorrhoid surgery. I would imagine that Wednesday is his last chance to stick in the rotation. It marks his first start against the Cubs, although Alex Bregman (0-for-2) has seen him.Â
I can’t say I totally love Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon (1-1, 4.55 ERA), so I can’t go too crazy here. But he has alternated good and bad outings over his past four and thus due a good one after allowing four runs over five in a no-decision last Friday at the Dodgers. Taillon has had career success vs. the Padres are 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five starts spanning 30.0 innings.Â
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Will stick with first five instead of Cubs money line to win because the Padres have the unhittable Mason Miller at the end of their bullpen so they would have the late advantage in a tie game. The model has Cubs winning and scoring 4.9 total runs. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.Â
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