2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds: Best bets for top value picks, sleepers

With the NFL Draft now well behind us, grades and best picks and the rest of that first big wave of reactions are in the past, too. As such, we can start looking at Rookie of the Year odds, too, and after starting on the offensive side of the ball Monday, we look at defense today.

For the third straight year, there were more offensive players than defensive players taken in the first round. Still, there are several enticing options for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Edge rusher David Bailey (Jets) went No. 2 overall, followed by linebacker/EDGE Arvell Reese at No. 5 (Giants), cornerback Mansoor Delane at No. 6 (Chiefs) and Sonny Styles at No. 7 (Commanders). Caleb Downs — who some people perceived as a top-five talent in the draft — went No. 11 to the Cowboys, and Rueben Bain Jr., seen as arguably the best edge defender in the draft, went No. 15 to the Buccaneers.

There were other first-rounders, some intriguing talents who went on Day 2 and one potential star who fell all the way to Day 3. We’ll get to him in a bit. As with OROY, we’ll divide DROY best bets into three categories: front-runners, the next tier and sleepers. 

All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

The front-runners

• David Bailey (+450)
• Rueben Bain Jr. (+550)
• Arvell Reese (+650)
• Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs (+750)
• Mansoor Delane (+1000)

Best bet: Downs (+750)

Unlike OROY, where a lineman never wins, every defensive position has a chance. An edge defender has won the award five of the last seven years, but off-ball linebacker Carson Schwesinger won it last year, and Sauce Gardner won it four years ago. No safety has won the award since Mark Carrier in 1990, but that shouldn’t preclude it from happening. Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori came in second last year, and with the league’s best safeties being asked to do more and more, perhaps that drought could end soon.

Let’s start with the pass rushers, though. Bailey’s burst is second to none, and he made several offensive tackles look absolutely silly last season. His run defense was the biggest knock against him, but he showed improvement in that area, and his College Football Playoff tape was outstanding. The worry here, from a DPOY voting perspective, is that the Jets brought multiple bodies this offseason at Bailey’s position — Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare — and Will McDonald IV is still with Gang Green, too.

Cream rises to the top, and it’s not like the Jets took Bailey second overall to have him sit. He just might not get as many opportunities early.

Then there’s Bain, who wasn’t happy to fall to No. 15. He led the FBS in pressures last year and is a force in the run game. His biggest flaw? He has short arms. But he also found a great landing spot in Tampa Bay, where Todd Bowles loves to design and send pressure. I’m bullish on Bain’s immediate impact.

Reese is a question mark, at least when it comes to assessing his DROY chances. Is he exclusively a linebacker? Will he get enough chances as a pass rusher?

“Arvell is a versatile player, and we’re going to play him at inside ‘backer, Will linebacker,” coach John Harbaugh said. “Our defense is pretty flexible, positionless you might call it. We’ll have an opportunity to move those guys around. But he’ll line up next to Tremaine [Edmunds], and he’ll be in the A gap, the B gap, the C gap, the D gap, off the edge.”

Wherever he lines up most, Reese will bring major athleticism and some pass-rush juice. That combination could be enough to propel him in this discussion, but the uncertainty, at least right now, gives me pause.

Styles and Downs, teammates at Ohio State, are tied for the fourth-shortest odds, and both play what’s considered a “non-premium” position. Styles would have to produce a truly tremendous season in terms of counting numbers (tackles, TFLs, turnovers) to beat out everyone on this list. Since 2010, the only off-ball linebackers to win DROY are Schwesinger, Shaquille Leonard and Luke Kuechly. Those are three of the four rookies EVER to have 150+ tackles, 10+ TFLs and at least two interceptions. Styles could produce another one of those exceedingly rare seasons, but betting on him to do so might not be the best move.

I’m quite high on Delane, but will he get the ball production to win the award?

I’m landing on Downs here. I love the fit of him alongside new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, who was outstanding coaching Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in Philadelphia. I envision Downs delivering a similar impact to DeJean as a slot defender while also providing strong run support. Plus, the narrative for this award might be there. If the Cowboys’ defense improves enough to be just average, Dallas could be a legit contender, and Downs being a face of that improvement will really help. 

(If I had to offer a second pick in this tier, it’d be Bain.)

The next tier

Best bet: Rodriguez (+2200)

Rodriguez’s case here is pretty simple: He’d follow the Schwesinger path of a ton of tackles and TFLs and enough ball production to win the award with overwhelming counting stats. In fact, he’s already done it at the college level: 128 tackles, 11 TFLs, four interceptions and seven(!) forced fumbles last year for Texas Tech. He won the Nagurski Award and the Bednarik Award, was an All-America selection and finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting. There’s a world where the top pass rushers in this class aren’t racking up big sack numbers, the defensive backs don’t have enough turnovers, and a high-floor tackling machine wins again.

Outside of Rodriguez, Thieneman is worth a look. He’s going to step in at safety alongside Coby Bryant, one of the game’s more under-appreciated disruptors from deep in the secondary. Kevin Byard picked off seven passes last year in Dennis Allen’s scheme, and I think Thieneman will be significantly more versatile and dynamic than Byard was as an overall player. If he gets enough overthrows and bounces that come his way, he could lead all rookies in interceptions; he had six as a freshman at Purdue.

Still, Rodriguez stands out as the best of this “next tier” to make a large enough statistical impact to leap to the top.

The sleepers

Pick: Jermod McCoy (+4000)

When you’re reaching this deep into the longshots, you’re looking for upside. Lots of the players in this group (+3000 odds or longer) could have nice careers or even solid rookie seasons. But we’re not looking for solid rookie seasons. We’re looking for Defensive Rookie of the Year-winning seasons.

McCoy is the obvious pick among this group. Widely viewed as a first-round talent — and, to some, the CB1 in this class — McCoy fell to the first pick of the fourth round (No. 101 overall) due to worries about a knee condition. It should be noted he also missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL, but this is a different and potentially more serious issue, one that could cost him his career.

If he’s healthy (a big “if”) he would be an absolute steal at this price, and it would be worth it to grab him at these odds. Should he be all systems go throughout the summer, training camp and the preseason, his odds are going to be among the shortest of any defensive rookie, and the Raiders have a plug-and-play guy immediately.

Here are some other sleeper options that caught my eye: