Friday’s AL East clash between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium was already a big one given Tampa Bay enters the weekend with a 4.5-game lead over the Bronx Bombers, but this series opener also features the return of one of baseball’s best pitchers. We may me months away from the MLB trade deadline, but the Yankees get one of the biggest in-season boosts around with ace Gerrit Cole taking the mound for the first time since 2024. Cole will get the ball starting at 7:05 p.m. ET Friday night.
Cole, 35, hasn’t pitched since the 2024 World Series after he underwent Tommy John surgery last spring. He now joins a Yankees pitching staff that, while already excellent, may now be the unquestioned best group in MLB, especially given how well Cam Schlittler has pitched. Cole’s return also comes at a great time for New York with standout lefty Max Fried on the injured list after a stellar start to his season.
Cole last pitched in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, where he was cruising up until the fifth inning. A misplayed fly ball by Aaron Judge in center field, a misplay at shortstop by Anthony Volpe and Cole not covering first base on a ground ball to the right side all contributed to an inning from hell, and the Yankees found themselves tied after leading 5-0. They’d lose that game 7-6, and the Dodgers won the World Series as a result. Cole then underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2025, which came after he missed nearly three months with elbow discomfort to begin 2024.
So what can we expect from Cole in his first start in nearly two years? We’ll look at Cole’s MLB player props for the Yankees’ matchup with the Rays, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Additionally, DraftKings has two special season-long markets for Cole’s 2026 campaign that we’ll dive into and share our MLB betting recommendations for. Use the DraftKings promo code and get $100 in bonus bets after wagering $5 or more with your first bet:
Top Gerrit Cole props for Rays vs. Yankees (odds via DraftKings)
- Over 4.5 strikeouts (-145)
- Under 16.5 total outs (-130)
- Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-128)
The big thing to watch with Cole Friday night is his pitch count. He threw 86 pitches in his final rehab start, so a final pitch count between 80 and 90 pitches makes a lot of since, especially given the opponent and that Cole hasn’t appeared in an MLB game in 19 months.
This is hardly a soft landing spot for the 2023 AL Cy Young winner. The Rays are 33-15 — best in the American League — and rank eighth in runs scored in all of MLB. As such, we’ll take the Over on Cole’s runs allowed prop line of 1.5. And given the combination of Tampa Bay being a tough team that New York is trying to catch and Cole’s usage being closely monitored, the Under on 16.5 outs feels like the play, with five innings seeming like a good starting point for Cole’s 2026 campaign.
The Rays enter Friday with the fewest team strikeouts in MLB, but this is Cole we’re talking about. He’s one of the best strikeout starting pitchers of his generation, and with his line at 4.5, he should be able to get to five, even against a contact-heavy Rays lineup. That’s especially the case given how amped Cole should be, so we could see some electric stuff out of the gate with his adrenaline pumping.
Gerrit Cole season-long betting specials (odds via DraftKings)
- Over 118.5 strikeouts (-115)
- Under 3.85 ERA (-125)
Cole’s first start of the year will be Game 52 for the Yankees, so New York has 110 games remaining after Friday’s series opener against the Rays. That means if if Cole does indeed start every fifth game for the Yankees, he should start somewhere between 20 and 22 games this year. That’s important to note for this season-long strikeout special at DraftKings as the line is set at 118.5 strikeouts for the rest of the regular season.
If Cole makes 20 total starts, he’d need to average roughly six strikeouts per outing to get Over this line. Considering Cole owns a career 10.4 K/9 mark and averaged 9.4 K/9 in 2024, that hardly seems out of the question. If Cole averages a strikeout per inning this year, he’ll essentially need to average six innings per start, which is right in line with his career average. Cole struck out roughly a batter an inning during his six rehab appearances this year. The Yankees clearly took their time in making sure Cole is as close to his pre-surgery health as can be, and one thing we know about Cole is he can punch tickets with the best of them.
As for his season-long ERA, a line of 3.85 seems incredibly high considering the standout right-hander hasn’t had an ERA worse than that since 2017 when he was a member of the Pirates. Since then, his worst ERA mark was 3.50 in 2022 with the Yankees. Even in an injury-shortened 2024 campaign, Cole’s ERA was still 3.41. There’s more juice on the Over here, but Cole is a proven stud who simply doesn’t give up many runs. It’d be surprising to see him finish 2026 with an ERA north of 3.85 barring an injury setback and/or dip in stuff.
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