Thanks to Jesús Luzardo and Byron Buxton, we started the second half of the season off hot here in Friday Night Lines. Let’s keep that momentum rolling here with another 2-0 day and hit the home run prop while we’re at it, right? Right? That’s the spirit.
Odds this week come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers -1.5 (-105) vs. Marlins
The Brewers headed home from their west-coast trip to open their second-half home schedule with the best record in baseball. They’re an amazing home team, too, having gone 33-17 to this point in American Family Field. On their last homestand, the Brewers went 6-0 and that included a three-game sweep of the Dodgers.
The Marlins are actually playing good baseball themselves, having won three straight series and having gone 18-8 since June 21 (only the Brewers have been better in the NL in that time frame).
It just makes me feel better about riding with the Brewers here, because while I believe in the Brewers for the rest of the season, I don’t believe one bit in the Marlins. The moneyline isn’t playable at -235, and I wouldn’t mind playing Freddy Peralta to get the win. Regardless, I don’t feel like the Brewers have to sweat here.
Cubs -1.5 (-109) @ White Sox
The NL Central has a pair of titans taking on inferior foes so I’m gonna make this week a theme.
The Cubs have an offense that’s actually been better on the road this season.
Home: .247/.326/.426, 5.1 runs per game
Road: .263/.322/.464, 5.4 runs per game
And they destroy righties to the tune of .257/.327/.448, sitting fourth in the majors in OPS against right-handed pitching.
The White Sox are starting righty Adrian Houser. He’s got a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts this year. Before this season, he had a career 4.21 ERA in over 600 innings. Did he just all of a sudden get amazing or is there a regression coming? Well, the lowly Pirates got him for four runs on 10 hits in 4 ⅓ innings last time out, so I’m gonna go with regression. The Cubs hit him hard last year, too.
In the Brewers pick, I noted how the Marlins were looking good of late. Ditto for the White Sox. They’ve gone 5-1 since the All-Star break, humiliating the Pirates in a three-game sweep and then impressively taking two of three from the Rays. The White Sox are not nearly as bad as they were last year, but they are also not a good team. They are bound to start losing again soon, so the timing works out.
Imanaga has a 1.33 ERA in seven road starts this season and he’s posted a 1.78 ERA in his five starts since returning from injury in late June. He’s won four of those five starts.
It looks good for another W for the Cubs and I’ve got them doing so by multiple runs.
Home run play: Michael Busch, Cubs: +350
Busch has been leading off for the Cubs against righties, which means he’ll get a good number of chances for a homer here. He’s feasted on righties this season, slashing .306/.395/.589 with 18 homers in 258 at-bats. He’s also hit 12 of his 20 home runs on the road, so it’s not like he needs the Friendly Confines of Wrigley. White Sox starter Houser has been really tough on righties this season, but lefties have hit .282/.352/.445 against him. Busch went 2 for 3 with a double against Houser last year, so let’s run with it.
Michael Busch goes deep.
Futures Play: Blue Jays to win AL pennant +600
The Tigers (+320), Yankees (+330) and Astros (+350) are still sitting with shorter odds to win the AL than the team that has been the best in the league since late May. The Blue Jays currently have the best record in the AL, are getting some injury returns that’ll help them improve and have a trade deadline where the front office would love to make a big splash. That offense is just absolutely relentless while the defense is great and there’s plenty of potential in the pitching staff, especially with the ability to add in front of the deadline.
Even if you don’t think the Blue Jays stay this hot, just knowing their ability to get hot for a prolonged period makes a sprinkle here worthwhile.
