I want to apologize for uttering words that no one wants to hear: Summer is halfway over. Not just for us, but throughout the NHL and every team that is preparing for the season. The 2025-26 season begins on Oct. 9 for the Ottawa Senators when they take on their Atlantic Division rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Last spring, the Senators made it to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2017 when they lost in the Eastern Conference Final. It’s been a slow build since then, and even though they lost to the hated Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the 2025 Playoffs, last season was a success, which means that anything short of a playoff appearance in 2026 will be considered a failure.
Related: Senators Goaltending Depth Chart: 2025 Offseason
It’s easy to expect the Sens to be playing in late April. It’s hard to imagine a 97-point team in 2024-25 falling out of the top eight in 2025-26. Of course, the New York Rangers did it, but my point remains the same. That said, while the Eastern Conference is not as deep as the West, it is still poised to be better than in years past, so there’s no guarantee that Ottawa will be back in the postseason.
The Sens Are Better… On Paper
Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson, and Drake Batherson are the first names that come to mind on the Senators’ roster. Another season of goaltender Linus Ullmark behind a solid blue line and another season of head coach Travis Green behind the bench are very promising. Yet, it’s the newcomers that make me think the team is better than last season.
Dylan Cozens will have a full season with the club after putting up five goals and 16 points in 21 games with the Sens after being traded from the Buffalo Sabres. In what may be one of my favourite signings of any Atlantic Division team this offseason, the Sens signed Lars Eller to a one-year, $1.25 million deal. While his 15 points in 63 games last season won’t blow anyone away, his efficiency in the faceoff circle and his two-way game will be a huge addition, even if he is in the bottom six. What’s more, adding Eller will also put other players in their proper place.
Claude Giroux and David Perron are back in the mix, and while they are both on the back nine of their careers, Ottawa’s young core is strong enough to make it a perfect blend of veteran leadership and youthful presence.
The only thing that gives me pause is what I like to call “The Buffalo Sabres Effect”. In short, I have a hard time trusting the Senators. Year after year, hopes are high, and year after year, they fall flat on their faces. At least, that is, until last season. Does getting over the hump for one season mean they are destined to stay there? More on that later.
The Atlantic Division Remains a Gauntlet
Last season, five teams from the Atlantic Division made it to the postseason. For years now, the top three teams in the Atlantic have been the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Tampa Bay Lightning, and it doesn’t feel like that is going to change in 2025-26.
The Panthers just won their second straight Stanley Cup and re-signed everybody. There’s no need to dive deeper; they are going to be good, yet again. The Lightning were a very good team last season and didn’t make many changes this summer. They were fifth in the NHL on the power play, sixth on the penalty kill, scored the most goals, and were fourth in goals allowed. Even though it didn’t translate in the playoffs, that’s a darn good season; there’s no reason why they would slip enough to miss the playoffs.
Then, there’s the Maple Leafs. Sure, they lost Mitch Marner, making their offence look different, but they still have two incredibly dynamic goal scorers in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, a strong defensive unit, and one of the best goalie tandems in the league. Like the Lightning, I don’t see any reason why they would miss the playoffs, no matter the impact of losing Marner.
How Do the Senators Rank in Their Division?
That’s three playoff spots gone, just like that. Whether those teams are in the top three in the division or a wild-card spot, we can lock them in regardless. Where do the Senators fit among the five remaining teams in the Atlantic? There are plenty of terrific writers covering all these teams at The Hockey Writers (be sure to check them all out), but I will quickly lay out my thoughts.
THW’s Zach Berta wrote a great piece about why the Sabres can compete in the Atlantic this season. Everything he said makes perfect sense; the only problem is that there is not one fibre of me that believes in that team. I don’t care if they had Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid; there is something in the water over there, and I just don’t buy it. The team always has loads of talent, but has not been able to pull it together for over a decade.
The Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins are expected to be towards the bottom of the division once again. The Red Wings might expect to take the next step, but they haven’t done enough this summer to keep up with the Joneses. Adding goaltender John Gibson is a huge get, so we’ll see if that helps shore up a shaky defence, but don’t count on it. The Bruins have a good goaltender and a decent defensive unit, but only one player, David Pastrnak, who can score goals, so it’s reasonable to expect another down year in Beantown.
That leaves the Montreal Canadiens. The Canadiens shocked most of the hockey world by putting together a terrific run in the second half to make the playoffs. Now, is the rebuild complete, or did they make it to the postseason ahead of schedule? That will be, and has been, debated by many an analyst this summer. I think the team will be good yet again, especially with the addition of Noah Dobson and a full season of Ivan Demidov.
So, if the Maple Leafs, Panthers, Lightning, and Canadiens are all set to make the playoffs again, and three teams from the Metro Division automatically get in, that leaves one playoff berth for the Senators to fight for. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not picking the Canadiens over the Sens, I’m just saying that the Habs will be right there, making their case for a postseason appearance, and the Senators are going to have to prove they are better, despite having a better season in 2024-25.
Will the Metro Division Have a Bounce-Back Year?
In the Metro Division last season, there were surprises left, right, and centre. After barely scraping into the playoffs the year before, the Washington Capitals won the division and finished with the second-most points in the NHL. At the other end of the spectrum, a year after winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the Rangers missed the playoffs by five points. Then, back on the positive side, after a tragic summer and a coaching change, the Columbus Blue Jackets became the feel-good story of the season, and missed the playoffs by a mere two points.
With a brilliant coach, a solid goalie tandem, and the perfect blend of youth, experience, grit, and skill, the Capitals should be able to build on the season they had last year. The Carolina Hurricanes are perennial favourites to win the Stanley Cup, and will be again in 2025-26. With a new coach behind the bench, despite facing multiple injuries, the New Jersey Devils booked themselves a trip to Game 83, and while there is room for a setback, I think if Jack Hughes can stay healthy, they will find themselves back in the postseason in April. These were the three teams to represent the Metro last season, and they will again this season.
When it comes to the Rangers’ quest to bounce back from a dreadful 2024-25, it’s hard to wrap my head around what to expect. Most of their skill and production is aging, and their defensive core is not as reliable as it used to be. Yes, they have one of the best netminders in the NHL, but he was hung out to dry almost nightly last season. Mike Sullivan is a highly respected coach who will start his first season with the franchise in October. That may be enough to propel the team to a successful campaign, but I’m not putting them above the three teams I just mentioned.
The Blue Jackets are a lock to make the playoffs this season. Adding Charlie Coyle solidifies their depth at the centre position. If Sean Monahan and Boone Jenner can stay healthy, and Adam Fantilli can build on a great 2024-25 season, this is one of the deeper centre groups in the Eastern Conference. Zach Werenski has made a name for himself as one of the best offensive defencemen in the NHL, and the defence as a whole is fairly solid.
The New York Islanders have also had a strong offseason, and I expect them to improve on last season. Even though they are still hard to trust, they will certainly be playing meaningful games down the stretch. The Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are set to have down seasons once again, and for those franchises, it’s all part of the plan.
The Senators Need to be Good All Season Long
The Senators had a great season in 2024-25. I’m not taking anything away from that. So did the Canadiens, for that matter. However, the Metro Division was horrendous for large stretches, and I don’t think we can expect a repeat of that in 2025-26. The Rangers and Islanders will be better, as will the Blue Jackets, and the Canadiens will be trying to build on what they accomplished as well.
Related: Expectations for Senators’ Veterans in 2025-26
The Sens are a good team, but they are going to have to be better in 2025-26. The same season will not get them the results they want. If the same six teams from last season are at the top of their respective divisions, that leaves two playoff spots for five teams that I think have a realistic shot. But what if the Red Wings and Sabres rise to the occasion this time around? What if Sid the Kid can drag his team into playoff contention? I expect the Senators to make the playoffs for a second season in a row, but it’s going to take an almost flawless campaign to do it.
