It’s quite rare for an NFL team to have a left-handed starting quarterback these days, much less have a QB competition in training camp between a pair of southpaws. But that will be the case this summer for the Atlanta Falcons after they signed former Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa to compete with incumbent starter Michael Penix Jr., who was drafted eighth overall by the team in 2024. Let’s break down Atlanta’s options.Â
Miami was hoping to trade Tagovailoa but had zero leverage and thus had to eat an NFL-record $99.2 million in dead cap money by releasing the southpaw and will pay him $54 million guaranteed to play for Atlanta in 2026. The Dolphins and Falcons are not scheduled to play next season, and I think it’s fair to say they won’t meet in Super Bowl 61 with both teams rebuilding. That exact Super Bowl matchup is +400000, and Atlanta’s odds to win Super 61 stayed +8000 at BetMGM following the Tagovailoa signing. Â
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Because the Dolphins are paying Tagovailoa so much, the Falcons will officially sign him today when the new league year opens to a mega-cheap one-year, $1.3 million deal to battle Penix for the No. 1 job under new head coach Kevin Stefanski. Penix went down with a torn left ACL in Week 11 last year, but he believes he will be ready for Week 1.
New GM Ian Cunningham said this week that Penix is “where he should be” in the rehab process and that Atlanta is “confident he’s on track.” New president of football Matt Ryan has not fully committed to Penix, who is 4-8 as a starter in the league, being the starter even after his recovery is complete. None of the current brain trust was in place when the Falcons drafted Penix out of Washington two years ago.Â
Tagovailoa led the NFL in yards per attempt and touchdown rate in 2022, led in passing yards and made the Pro Bowl in 2023, and led in completion percentage in 2024. The Dolphins offense was humming under coach Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa got paid accordingly. The ’23 campaign was the lone time he played every regular-season game. But it came crashing down last season when Tagovailoa threw 15 interceptions in 14 games before being benched, and Tua has a scary history of concussions. He is 12-13 over the past two seasons after previously going 19-11.
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The QBs appear quite different stylistically, although obviously part of that may have been the offenses in which they played. That both are lefties should make life easier on offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and the rest of the players on that side of the ball. Rees came over from Cleveland with Stefanski.Â
In the last two seasons among QBs with more than 250 pass attempts, Penix was first in the NFL in rate of pass attempts outside the numbers (56.2%), while Tagovailoa was 31st (46.2%). Penix was fifth in the league in air yards per attempt (8.9), and Tua was 44th (6.2). Penix was drafted to attack down the field and outside the numbers. Tagovailoa was signed because he succeeds throwing quickly and underneath to the middle of the field.
Based on Stefanski’s offenses in Cleveland, Tagovailoa’s style would seem to suit his scheme well. So would Kirk Cousins. Also note that Atlanta obviously plays in a dome and a warm-weather division with Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina. Tagovailoa is 1-6 in his NFL career when starting a game with a kickoff temperature of 45 degrees or lower. Just for weather reasons, Atlanta should be a much better fit than, say, the cold-weather outdoor Jets (who traded for Geno Smith on Tuesday).Â
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Tagovailoa is 5-1 all-time when playing in a dome, with 10 touchdowns to just three picks and a 102.4 QB rating. The NFC South is also very mediocre (and has a second dome in New Orleans), and that suits Tagovailoa well. He’s 7-18 in his NFL career vs. teams with a winning record compared to 37-14 against all others. Perhaps he can resuscitate his career like Sam Darnold did after leaving his original NFL team, where he was surrounded by sky-high expectations as a top-five NFL Draft pick.Â
If Penix is not healthy by training camp, then it likely will be Tagovailoa’s job to start the season. Penix is coming off his third torn ACL in eight seasons after tearing his right ACL twice in college. Thus, SportsLine oddsmakers list Tagovailoa as the -140 favorite to start Week 1 and Penix at +120. The schedule should be released in about two months.
Here’s how the SportsLine Projection Model feels about the Falcons with either QB option on the field:
|
Falcons |
Projected wins  |
Division  |
Playoffs   |
Conference  |
Super Bowl |
|
w/Penix |
8.1 |
30.0% |
36.3% |
1.87% |
0.77% |
|
w/Tagovailoa |
8.2 |
31.8% |
38.4% |
2.06% |
0.82% |
|
+/- Impact |
0.1 |
1.8% |
2.1% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
|
% Change |
1.2% |
5.9% |
5.7% |
10.2% |
6.5% |
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The model forecasts Atlanta to be slightly better with the veteran Tagovailoa under center this season. It lists the Falcons at 8.2 wins with him and gives the team a 38.4% shot at making the playoffs, compared to 8.1 wins and a 36.3% chance with Penix. DraftKings has the Falcons at over/under 7.5 wins and +230 for the playoffs, which equates to 30.3%. Atlanta faces one of the league’s easiest schedules as its opponents combined for a .465 winning percentage in 2025.Â
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