Bears down: Chicago’s magic runs out, but should be bullish on Caleb Williams

The Chicago Bears’ exhilarating rollercoaster ride of a 2025 season came to a screeching halt in their 20-17 overtime defeat in the NFC divisional round against the Los Angeles Rams. 

Chicago roared back to their first NFC North division title since 2018 and their first playoff win since the 2010 season in Year 1 of head coach Ben Johnson’s and 2024 first overall pick quarterback Caleb Williams’ partnership. The cherry on top of the season for the Bears was winning their last two matchups against the hated Green Bay Packers with two furious comebacks, including a 31-27 wild card round victory that involved the biggest playoff rally in franchise history. They erased a 21-3 halftime deficit in that frantic finish. 

Williams’ last two throws of the Bears’ final two drives of the season were a microcosm of a streaky Chicago squad. The Bears lost their first two games of the season, but then they followed that up with victories in 11 of their next 13 games before losing their final two regular season games to finish 11-6 in the regular season. 

Williams heaved a game-tying, 14-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-4 with 18 seconds remaining to tight end Cole Kmet while fading away over multiple Rams defenders that was one of the most clutch, breathtaking throws in recent NFL playoff memory. After he scrambled backward, Williams’ throw soared 51.2 yards in the air, the most on a red zone passing touchdown in 10 seasons, per CBS Sports Research. That touchdown pass ended up being thrown 26.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, the most on any completion in the past 10 seasons, according to CBS Sports Research. 

For as amazing as Williams’ game-extending touchdown throw was, his pass that ended what became the Bears’ final possession of 2025 was equally as horrendous. He sailed a throw over a seemingly open Luther Burden III, and he miscommunicated with a crossing DJ Moore for an interception to Rams safety Kamren Curl when Chicago just needed a field goal to secure an overtime win after Los Angeles’ punt. 

Funny enough, Williams had time in the pocket and set his feet before making that back-breaking throw. It’s almost as if Williams having more time to process what he is seeing when he drops back to pass causes him to overcomplicate the easier throws. Williams’ 14.6% off target throw rate was the highest in the NFL in 2025 among the league’s 33 qualified quarterbacks. Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who was last in the NFL in almost every key passing metric this season, was barely behind Williams with a 14.4% off target throw rate.   

So what lies ahead for the Bears as they enter the 2026 offseason? Here are three key things Chicago will have to work through ahead of their 2026 season.  

How to maintain late-game magic

No team had a more clutch 2025 season than the Bears. Their seven wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, including the playoffs, is an NFL record. Some of that likely had to do with Chicago getting accustomed to the high-wire act of winning close games with an NFL-most eight wins by fewer than seven points this season, including the playoffs. 

Johnson told reporters some of that comeback magic had to do with an exercise he did with his team back in training camp. He showed his squad the New England Patriots 34-28 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, a game in which the Patriots came back from a Super Bowl record, 25-point deficit (28-3). He had two players on the 2025 Bears who played in that game, one for each team. Left guard Joe Thuney was on the Patriots and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett was on the Falcons. Johnson said he used that example as a reminder to never give up, no matter what the score. 

He’ll need to cook up another similar exercise to that in 2026 as well as spend plenty of time in prayer because regression to the mean comes almost every year for NFL teams that rely heavily on clutch, one-score wins. The 2024 Kansas City Chiefs were an NFL record 11-0 in one score games last season en route to a third consecutive Super Bowl trip. In 2025, the Chiefs’ late-game success completely flipped as they lost 9 of their 10 one-score games this season. 

Chicago will need to improve across the board in 2026 to avoid a similar letdown in the coming year. 

How to upgrade the roster with limited paths to do just that

Having a starting quarterback on their rookie contract is typically viewed as the best bargain in the NFL because it frees up plenty of money to spend at other positions over the life of the rookie passer’s first four seasons. Despite Williams entering just his third season in 2026, the Bears aren’t in a position where they are flush with cap space to bolster the rest of their roster for the next two or three years. 

OverTheCap.com projects the Bears to have the 11th-fewest effective cap space, defined as the cap space a team will possess after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie draft class, in the NFL entering the 2026 offseason at -$18.23 million. That’s honestly remarkable considering Williams’ contract status. The biggest area where the Bears need to improve is on defense. Chicago was the NFL’s No. 9 scoring offense (25.9 points per game) while they were the league’s No. 23 scoring defense (24.4 points per game allowed). Continuity typically helps, and they’ll have Dennis Allen back as their defensive coordinator in 2026. 

However, the Bears don’t have the money to maintain continuity in the secondary. Safety Kevin Byard, a 2025 first team All-Pro after leading the league with seven interceptions, is set to become a free agent as is fellow starting safety Jaquan Brisker, nickel C.J. Gardner-Johnson and outside cornerback Nahshon Wright, who led the NFL with eight takeaways (five interceptions and three fumble recoveries). The potential losses of both Byard and Wright, who combined to account for 15 of Chicago’s league-leading 33 takeaways (45.4%), could certainly set the Bears’ defense back. 

Cutting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds could save $15 million in cap space while netting the Bears just $2.4 million in dead money. With first-round rookie tight end Colston Loveland’s emergence, releasing tight end Cole Kmet could save Chicago $8.4 million in cap room while costing just $3.2 million in dead money. However, with such a small difference, the team might just hang on to Kmet for one more year. General manager Ryan Poles will need to ace the 2026 NFL Draft, particularly on defense, if Chicago is to have any real chance of improving upon its 2025 performance in 2026. 

While it sounds crazy to say, the 2025 season may have been the Bears’ best shot to make a Super Bowl run with Williams on his rookie contract. That’s something Johnson can understand from his time as the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator from 2022 to 2024. Detroit won the NFC North in 2023 with a 12-5 record and reached the conference championship game. They lost 34-31 to the San Francisco 49ers in that game after leading 24-7 at halftime. They haven’t won a playoff game since. Detroit won a franchise record 15 games in 2024, but they were upset in the divisional round by the No. 6 seed Washington Commanders in their first playoff game as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Johnson left for Chicago the following offseason, and Detroit missed the playoffs entirely in 2025. 

“Sometimes you can only say so much,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell told reporters after the Lions’ 34-31 NFC championship game loss. “[Sometimes] you gotta live it, unfortunately. You gotta get your heart ripped out, which we did. And it’s a lesson learned. And look, I told those guys, ‘This may have been our only shot.’ Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No. However, I know how hard it is to get here. I am well aware. It’s gonna be twice as hard to get back to this point next year.”  

The 2025 season may have been the Bears’ only shot to seriously contend on Williams’ rookie deal. True Super Bowl contention will be more difficult to chase once Chicago has to pay Williams his market value by making him one of the NFL’s highest-paid players in the coming years. If the Bears struggle to manage the salary cap with what Williams making now, it’s hard to envision the cap management improving when their quarterback will account for a much higher percentage of the team’s payroll. 

How to get more consistency in the accuracy department from Caleb Williams

Williams produced the NFL’s fifth-best touchdown-to-interception ratio, 3.9 (27 passing touchdowns to 7 interceptions) in 2025, but he ranked just 22nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (90.1). How is that possible? Williams was one of the least accurate passers in the league in 2025: his 58.1% completion percentage was the second-worst in the NFL behind only Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s 57.6% figure. Williams’ 14.6% off target throw rate was the highest in the NFL in 2025 among the league’s 33 qualified quarterbacks. McCarthy, who ranked dead last in the NFL in nearly every critical passing statistic in 2025, was barely ahead of Williams with a 14.4% off target throw rate. 

When asked what he needs to do to help carry momentum from the Bears’ 2025 campaign into 2026, Williams knew exactly what the answer is: increase his accuracy. Being better at setting his feet for a more stable throwing platform, particularly from the pocket, in 2026 should help a lot as should spending even more time with his pass catchers. 

“Work on accuracy, work on my feet in the offseason,” Williams said postgame after the Bears’ NFC divisional round defeat. “It’s get with the receivers and work with them and things like that throughout the offseason so that we’re on the same page. [So] We’re starting out hot for training camp, OTAs and then going into next season.”

If Williams can make very correctable footwork adjustments and build a better rapport with his receivers in Year 2 of operating Johnson’s offense, the Bears could rise to being a top-five scoring offense in 2026. Time will tell if he’ll have a defense that is able to complement his development.