Bills fire McDermott, plus NFL divisional round recap and Bo Nix replacements

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

After a dramatic divisional round that saw two games go to overtime, only four teams remain in the NFL: the Seahawks, Rams, Patriots and Broncos. You could argue the Broncos are barely standing, however, after losing their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury. Bo Nix fractured a bone in his ankle during overtime of Denver’s win over Buffalo, which will keep him out of Sunday’s AFC title game against the Patriots.

Speaking of the conference title games, we’ll take an early look at those in this newsletter. We’ll also break down the Bills’ shocking decision to fire Sean McDermott.

As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Bills fire Sean McDermott: Five things to know

After watching his team come up short in the playoffs for the seventh straight year, Bills owner Terry Pegula has finally seen enough. The Bills made the shocking decision to fire Sean McDermott on Monday, less than 48 hours after Buffalo’s overtime loss to the Broncos.

Here are five things you need to know about the move:

• Pegula’s explanation for the firing. The Bills’ owner released a short statement after firing McDermott on Monday. “Sean has done an admirable job of leading our football team for the past nine seasons,” Pegula said. “But I feel we are in need of a new structure within our leadership to give this organization the best opportunity to take our team to the next level. We owe that to our players and to Bills Mafia.”
• McDermott couldn’t get over the hump in the playoffs. The Bills reached the AFC title game twice over the past seven seasons but never got over the hump. During his nine seasons in Buffalo, McDermott won eight playoff games, the most postseason wins by any coach in NFL history without a Super Bowl appearance. With their three-point loss to Denver, the Bills became the first team in NFL history to lose three straight playoff games by three points or fewer.
• McDermott’s defense was a big problem in crunch time. In four of their past five playoff losses, the Bills held a fourth-quarter lead only to lose the game, an indictment of McDermott’s defense. On Saturday, Buffalo led 27-23 with two minutes left before surrendering a 73-yard touchdown drive to the Broncos. And there was the famous 13-second game against the Chiefs, when Allen put Buffalo ahead 36-33 with a touchdown pass with 13 seconds left in the fourth quarter — only for McDermott’s defense to allow Patrick Mahomes to drive for a game-tying field goal. The Bills held a fourth-quarter lead in their last three playoff games against the Chiefs but ultimately lost all three.
• McDermott did have a solid career in Buffalo. McDermott went 98-50 during his nine seasons with the Bills, with his 98 wins ranking second-most in NFL history by a coach during his first nine seasons with a team. He led Buffalo to the playoffs in eight of nine seasons, an impressive feat considering the Bills did not reach the postseason once in the 17 seasons before his arrival.
• Bills coaching candidates. McDermott was a defensive-minded coach, but with Josh Allen as the star in Buffalo, it may be time for the Bills to hire an offensive-minded coach. If they go that route, several candidates could make sense. The Bills could promote offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Outside the organization, they could look at Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Rams passing game coordinator Nathan Scheelhaase, Mike McCarthy, Mike McDaniel or Kliff Kingsbury. The Bills could also bring back Brian Daboll, who served as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator for four seasons (2018-21) and did an impressive job maximizing Allen’s talents.

The NFL coaching cycle has officially gone off the rails this year. McDermott’s firing means there will be 10 new coaches in 2026, tied for the most in a single offseason in NFL history (also in 1978, 1997, 2006 and 2022).

When the month began, six NFL coaches had 95 career wins or more. That number is now down to three, with McDermott, Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll out of jobs.

With McDermott no longer in Buffalo, there are eight open head-coaching jobs. Interviews are still ongoing for each opening, including a scheduled interview between Mike McCarthy and the Steelers. If you want to keep tabs on all the interviews, we’re tracking everything here.

2. Breaking down the divisional round: Bills go down in flames, Seahawks destroy 49ers

Since things got kind of crazy over the weekend, we thought it would make sense to at least take a brief look at what happened in each game, so that’s what we’re going to do here. We got two overtime games in the divisional round, which marked the first time since 2003 that we’ve gotten multiple overtime games in the second round of the playoffs. 

With that in mind, let’s take a brief look at each game: 

• (1) Broncos 33-30 (OT) over (6) Bills. This might have been Josh Allen’s best chance at winning a Super Bowl, and he threw it away by turning the ball over four times in a three-point loss. Near the end of the first half, Allen made what was easily the most inexcusable mistake of the game and possibly the most inexcusable mistake of his career when he lost a fumble that set up a Denver field goal on the final play of the half (you can see the play here). The Bills turned the ball over a total of five times, and the Broncos scored 16 points off those turnovers — clearly the difference in the game. One of Allen’s turnovers came on an interception in overtime that set up Denver’s game-winning drive. Of course, the biggest story from this game is the fact that Bo Nix fractured a bone in his ankle, and we’ll have more on that in a little bit. You can check out our full takeaways from Denver’s win here. 
• (1) Seahawks 41-6 over (6) 49ers. Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown, and the game was essentially over after that. The Seahawks defense absolutely suffocated the 49ers, forcing three turnovers while sacking Brock Purdy twice. The defense also kept San Francisco out of the end zone for the second straight time after also holding the 49ers without a touchdown in Week 18. With Sam Darnold dealing with an oblique injury, the Seahawks put their offense in the hands of Kenneth Walker III, who rushed for 116 yards and three touchdowns. We’ve got quite a few takeaways from this game, and you can check them out here. 
• (2) Patriots 28-16 over (5) Texans. The Texans’ defense was the best in the NFL all season, but it was the Patriots’ defense that stole the show in this game. The Patriots forced five turnovers, including a pick-six from Marcus Jones in the second quarter that gave New England an early 14-10 lead. Drake Maye had some fumbling problems, but he also came up with some huge plays, including a 32-yard touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte in the fourth quarter that iced the win. The Texans are going to have to start asking themselves some questions about C.J. Stroud, who simply doesn’t look like a franchise QB anymore. Stroud had a strong rookie year, but he’s regressed ever since and he hit rock bottom in this loss with four interceptions. The Texans are now 0-7 in the divisional round in franchise history and are the only team in the NFL that has never made it to a conference title game. For more on New England’s win, be sure to click here. 
• (5) Rams 20-17 (OT) over (2) Bears. The Rams pulled off a dramatic win that wasn’t decided until Harrison Mevis drilled a 42-yard field goal in overtime. The only reason the game made it to overtime is because Caleb Williams threw a miraculous 14-yard touchdown pass on fourth down with under 30 seconds left to play (if you haven’t seen the play, please stop what you’re doing and check it out here right now). The Bears looked like they were going to pull out the win in overtime after driving to L.A.’s 48-yard line, but Williams threw an interception that set up the Rams’ game-winning drive. Williams came up clutch at times, but he also threw three interceptions — and that was a big reason why Chicago lost. We’ve got a full story on the Rams’ wild win, and you can check it out here. 

That leaves us with four teams left standing: 

• The Broncos are in the AFC title game for the first time since 2015, and coincidentally enough, they played the Patriots that year.
• The Patriots are in the AFC title game for the first time since 2018. This marks the first time they’ve gotten there without Tom Brady as their quarterback since 1996. 
• The Seahawks are in the NFC title game for the first time since 2014. 
• The Rams are in the NFC title game for the first time since 2021. They ended up beating the 49ers that year on their way to a win in Super Bowl LVI. 

If the Patriots make the Super Bowl, we’ll definitely be getting a rematch because New England has already played both Seattle and Los Angeles in a prior Super Bowl. If the Patriots play the Rams, it will mark the third time the teams have met in the Super Bowl, which would tie Steelers-Cowboys for the most in NFL history. 

3. Bo Nix injury details: Five wild options at QB for the Broncos

The most shocking moment of the divisional round came Saturday when Sean Payton revealed after Denver’s win that Bo Nix would miss the rest of the postseason after fracturing a bone in his ankle. That now sets the stage for Jarrett Stidham to get his first start of the season. 

Stidham only has four starts in his entire seven-year career and he hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass in two years, so it’s definitely a risky move for the Broncos to pin their Super Bowl hopes on an unproven quarterback. The Broncos are in a desperate situation and desperate teams do desperate things. Earlier this year, we saw the Colts sign 44-year-old Philip Rivers in hopes of saving their season after Daniel Jones went down with an injury. Rivers hadn’t thrown an NFL pass in five years before signing with the Colts back in December. 

With that in mind, I decided to take a look at a few wild QB options for the Broncos: 

• Ryan Tannehill. As crazy as it sounds, this might actually be Denver’s most intriguing option. Tannehill hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since Week 18 of the 2023 season, which sounds like a long time ago, but his last pass actually came on the same day that Stidham threw his last regular-season pass. The best part for the Broncos is that Tannehill does have some playoff experience: He led the Titans to the AFC title game in 2019 and then one year later helped lead Tennessee to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
• Cam Newton. Newton hasn’t played since 2021, but he’s still only 36 years old, and the interesting part is that he hasn’t officially retired. After the Colts signed Rivers in December, Newton was asked on his podcast if he’d ever be willing to return to the NFL after four years out of the league, and he made it clear that he would. Basically, Newton would be more than happy to answer the phone if Payton calls. During his career, Newton started 16 games against Payton’s Saints, so the Broncos coach is certainly familiar with his work.
• Drew Brees. If there’s one name that Payton might toss around this week, it’s Brees. The Broncos head coach spent 15 seasons in New Orleans with Brees as his quarterback, a span that included three conference title game appearances and a Super Bowl win in 2009. The only problem with calling Brees is that, apparently, his right arm isn’t working anymore. Brees’ right arm likely couldn’t handle the rigors of an entire NFL season, but could it work for three weeks or even just one game? At age 47, Brees might not be interested, but it might be worth it for Payton to make a call just to check in on his former quarterback.

One player who won’t be able to suit for the Broncos is Tom Brady. If you own part of an NFL team, you’re no longer allowed to suit up for any team in the NFL, which eliminates Brady, who officially became a minority owner in the Raiders back in October of 2024. We’ve got a few more possible QB options for Denver, and you can check those out here. 

If the Broncos do roll with Stidham, he’ll become just the seventh quarterback in NFL history to make his first start of the season in the playoffs and second QB ever to make his first start of the season in a conference title game. 

Here’s the list of quarterbacks who were forced to start their first game of a season in the playoffs: 

1972 NFC title game: Roger Staubach starts for Cowboys
1983 divisional: Gary Danielson starts for Lions
1992 wild card: Frank Reich starts for Bills
2012 wild card: Joe Webb starts for Vikings
2016 wild card: Connor Cook starts for Raiders
2020 wild card: Taylor Heinicke starts for Washington

The six quarterbacks on this list went a combined 1-5, with the only win coming from Reich in a game where the Bills pulled off the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history (they trailed the Oilers 35-3 before rebounding for a 41-38 win).

All four of the starts in Stidham’s career have come in Week 17 or Week 18, when the team he was playing for had already been eliminated from the playoffs. He also hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since Jan. 7, 2024, which means he’ll have gone 749 days without throwing an NFL pass by the time the AFC title game rolls around.

The Broncos signed Ben DiNucci on Sunday, which means their QB depth chart going into the week consists of Stidham, Ehlinger and DiNucci — three quarterbacks with eight combined career starts who have gone 1-7 in those games.

4. Overreactions from divisional round: Did Josh Allen throw away his best chance at a Super Bowl? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened over the weekend to decide if we’re all overreacting. 

Statement: Josh Allen fumbles away his best chance at winning a Super Bowl. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The 2024 NFL MVP didn’t look the part in the loss to Denver, committing four turnovers (two fumbles and two interceptions). His back-to-back fumbles sandwiched in between halftime were egregious, and he seemed to force the ball down the field on his two interceptions, including the pick in overtime that helped set up Denver’s game-winning drive. Allen and the Bills have squandered what will likely be their best opportunity to make it to and win a Super Bowl.

Statement: Broncos’ Super Bowl hopes are done after injury to Bo Nix.  
Overreaction or reality: Reality. While the Broncos will have home-field advantage in the AFC title game and they boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, this injury effectively ends any dreams of hoisting a Lombardi Trophy. Jarrett Stidham has been with the Broncos since 2023, so he’s familiar with Payton’s offense, but being thrust into a conference championship is too tall a task. The 29-year-old played one snap this season, taking a knee in October. He hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2023. To put it bluntly: It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Stidham helps orchestrate a victory outside of the defense pitching a shutout.

Statement: Sean McDermott is on the hot seat. 
Note: Tyler wrote this statement on Saturday night, and since he hit the nail on the head, we kept it in here. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. McDermott has the most playoff wins (8) without a Super Bowl appearance by a head coach in NFL history. While this is certainly productive for constantly being in the hunt, it’s not maximizing what Buffalo has in Josh Allen during his prime years, which could make the Bills brass consider a change. 

We’ve got several more overreactions from the divisional round, and if you want to check those out, we’ve got them here.

5. Early odds for the AFC and NFC title games

We’ll be covering the AFC and NFC title games here all week, so I won’t dive into these two games very much today. That said, I didn’t want to completely ignore them, so here are the early odds for each game. Not surprisingly, the Broncos are a huge underdog.

Sunday, Jan. 25
(2) Patriots at (1) Broncos, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Current point spread: Patriots -5.5

For the third time in 13 years, the Broncos are hosting the AFC title game, and for the third time in 13 years, they’ll be hosting the Patriots. The Broncos won each of the previous two meetings, and now they’ll be looking to make it three in a row, but that won’t be easy because Bo Nix won’t be playing.

The expectation is that Jarrett Stidham will be the Broncos’ starting QB, which is the big reason the Broncos are the largest home underdog ever in a conference title game dating to the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Broncos will need their defense to keep them in this game, and that will certainly be possible: Denver led the NFL in sacks during the regular season and will face a QB in Drake Maye, who took the fourth-most sacks in the NFL this year.  

Sunday, Jan. 25
(5) Rams at (1) Seahawks 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Current point spread: Seahawks -2.5

The Seahawks are hosting the NFC title game for the first time in 11 years, and they’ll be facing a Rams team they’re very familiar with. The two division rivals faced each other twice this season, with each team winning at home. Back in Week 11, the Rams beat the Seahawks 21-19 in a game where Sam Darnold threw four interceptions. The Seahawks then got their revenge during a wild Week 16 game that saw Seattle storm back from a 30-14 deficit in the fourth quarter in a 38-37 overtime win. Davante Adams didn’t play in that Week 16 game, but the Rams will have him this time around.

This will also mark the second straight year that the Rams have gotten to face Sam Darnold in the playoffs. Last year, they tied an NFL playoff record by sacking him nine times in a win over the Vikings. This will mark the third time Sean McVay has led his team to the NFC title game, and he’s gone 2-0 in his previous two games. This matchup will also feature the NFL’s top-scoring offense (Rams) against the defense that gave up the fewest points during the season (Seattle). Since the merger, that has happened eight times previously in the conference round or later, and the top defense has gone 7-1.

You can check out our full story on the early odds for both games, along with an early preview of each one, here. 

6. Extra points: Falcons have a new head coach

It’s been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Falcons hire Kevin Stefanski. The Falcons made a big move over the weekend by hiring Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach. The former Browns coach, who was fired on Jan. 5, was out of a job for less than two weeks. The two-time Coach of the Year went just 45-56 during his six seasons in Cleveland, but he also did the impossible by leading the Browns to the playoffs twice. Stefanski has already made one decision in Atlanta and that’s the fact that he’ll be keeping Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich in the same role. We’ve got the full details on Stefanski’s hiring here. 
• Matt LaFleur agrees to contract extension with Packers. There had been some speculation that LaFleur and the Packers might part ways this year, but that definitely won’t be happening. CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones has reported that LaFleur has reached an extension with the team. The terms of the deal haven’t been reported yet, but LaFleur’s contract was set to expire following the 2026 season and it seems highly likely that his extension will cover at least three years, if not longer. 
• Titans coaching job appears to be down to three finalists. After interviewing 15 people for their open coaching job, it appears that the Titans are down to three finalists. According to ESPN, those finalists are 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Saleh (Jets) and Nagy (Bears) are both former NFL head coaches while Hafley was a head coach at the college level (Boston College) before taking Green Bay’s DC job.