C.J. Stroud’s playoff collapse puts Texans at a crossroads ahead of looming extension

It’s Groundhog Day in Houston. For the third consecutive season, the Texans reached the playoffs, recorded a win on Wild Card Weekend and then were ousted from the postseason a week later in the divisional round. 

During those prior campaigns, you could always look at Houston with a glass-half-full view as an on-the-rise, ahead of schedule team with one of the youngest rosters in the AFC. This year, however, we’re deviating from that optimistic viewpoint after a 28-16 loss to the Patriots on Sunday redefined the word sloppy and toggled C.J. Stroud’s standing in Space City from franchise QB to liability. 

The former No. 2 overall pick may have had the worst playoff run of any quarterback in NFL history, headlined by a four-interception outing in the divisional round loss Pats. When accounting for his five fumbles (two lost) and interception against Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs, that makes Stroud the first player in NFL playoff history with at least five interceptions and five fumbles in a postseason. 

In the first half of Sunday’s defeat, Stroud completed 10 of his 26 pass attempts for 124 yards, a touchdown, and four interceptions. That makes him …

• The only QB in the past 35 postseasons with a sub-40% completion rate and four interceptions in a half.
• The only QB in the past 35 seasons (regular season and playoffs) with 15-plus incompletions and at least four interceptions in a first half.

It wasn’t just a bad statistical showing from Stroud, either. The third-year player looked lost throughout the playoff defeat and made some remarkably poor decisions with the football, including a throw in the early stages of the second quarter that should’ve never been attempted and was run back for a pick-six. 

And it wasn’t just a singular bad game from Stroud. As we noted, he was loose with the football in the prior round against the Steelers. The Texans won in spite of their quarterback over Wild Card Weekend, and were, at times, in a position to bail him out again on Sunday in Foxborough. 

That’s a concerning development considering the door Stroud and the Texans are about to walk through this offseason. Stroud is now extension-eligible, so Houston will soon head to the negotiating table with the expectation of sliding over a contract that’ll pay the 24-year-old signal-caller anywhere between $55 to $60 million annually, if not exceeding those numbers. 

With that extension hovering over this poor postseason performance from Stroud, let’s examine how we got here, what will happen next and what the Texans will need to do to get their young quarterback back on track. 

C.J. Stroud has regressed from sensational rookie season

There’s no two ways about it. From a production standpoint, Stroud has regressed after taking the league by storm as a rookie in 2023. 

In 15 games that year, Stroud threw for 4,018 yards en route to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award and AFC South championship. Since then, the wins have maintained, but the individual numbers, along with our eyes, tell us Stroud is on a downward trajectory. 

Just as a quick QB comparison to further highlight how Stroud has fallen off, here’s where some key metrics stack up against other quarterbacks in the NFL over the last two seasons. 

Over this timeframe, Cousins and Smith are on the back end of their careers, and Murray is currently playing his way out of Arizona. This is not the company Stroud wants to keep, especially as he looks to become one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Why has Stroud’s development gone sideways? 

While we’re not taking away from some of the poor in-game decisions Stroud has made over the last few years, it’s also worth noting that the situation has devolved around him a touch.

On balance, the protection has not been good in front of him, and has only gotten worse in some respects. During his rookie season, Stroud was sacked 38 times and faced a pressure rate of 35.0%. Over his second season, Stroud was sacked 52 times and pressured on 37.9% of his dropbacks. After an overhaul of the offensive line last offseason, Houston’s protection improved slightly (23 sacks taken in 14 regular-season games), but Stroud was still pressured 36.7% of the time.

It also doesn’t help that he’s had two different offensive coordinators over his tenure as the Texans went from Bobby Slowik over the first two years to Nick Caley in 2025, adding another adjustment for Stroud. 

Will the Texans pay Stroud his lucrative extension?

The short answer is yes. Houston really has no other choice but to pay Stroud among the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. What else are they going to do? Hand the keys of the franchise over to Davis Mills? While some will suggest that after this disastrous postseason, it’s just not how organizations operate. If they did, Stroud would’ve been benched for Mills coming out of halftime of Sunday’s loss to the Patriots. 

For better or worse, inking one of these mega contracts isn’t necessarily about being the best quarterback in the league. It’s about timing. Of course, you need to cross a certain threshold to be considered eligible for these lofty figures, but Stroud has done enough to be in that range. Soon enough, he’ll join QBs like Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1 million in AAV), Trevor Lawrence ($55 million), and Jordan Love ($55 million) as one of the highest-paid players in the league. Those guys do not top anybody’s list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. It just is what it is. 

Will the Texans feel great about it? No way — how could they after what they just saw this postseason? As much as their hand may be shaking with the pen in their hand, however, they’ll do the deal and hope Stroud rekindles the magic from his rookie campaign. Otherwise they’re going to have to get on the shaky free agent QB carousel (those guys aren’t cheap either) or seek alternative options through the draft. Good luck finding one in the 20s, which is where Houston figures to be selecting on a nearly-yearly basis considering its elite defense and the relative softness of its division. 

What Houston needs to do to get Stroud back on track 

The Texans have a ferocious defense that can win a Super Bowl, but they need to keep surrounding Stroud with talent on the offensive side of the ball to help the organization reach its highest potential. 

Of course, continuing to add protection along the offensive line will be imperative for the Texans this offseason, but they also need to give Stroud and the offense a serviceable ground attack. Over the regular season, Houston was in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game (108.9), and their 3.9 yards per carry average was tied for the fourth-lowest in the NFL. Joe Mixon, who rushed for 1,000 yards for the Texans in 2024, missed the entire 2025 season due to a leg injury, and the duo of Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks failed to make much of an impact. 

Houston could also stand to add another pass-catching target for Stroud opposite of Nico Collins, who missed the divisional round loss due to a concussion he suffered the week before. The Texans did spend two of their first three 2025 picks on receivers and viewed Jayden Higgins (No. 34 overall) as a quasi first-rounder, considering the unconventional, fully-guaranteed contract they inked the second-rounder to. 

While some help along the O-line, a running back, and possibly another wideout are on the shopping list, actually acquiring these players is easier said than done. 

According to Spotrac’s figures, the Texans are currently projected to have about $13 million in cap space this offseason. On top of a looming extension for C.J. Stroud, his 2023 draft classmate Will Anderson Jr. is also extension-eligible; the star pass rusher will no doubt command a lofty contract. Money is going to start becoming a factor for the Texans — the bill always comes for a young team with a QB on a rookie contract — but there’s too much positive momentum for Houston, considering where it had been for the better part of its history, for the Texans to actually punt on Stroud right now.