Starting fast in the NFL is paramount, which is why Week 1 will always be crucial towards winning a championship. Of the 59 Super Bowl winners, 47 have actually started the season 1-0. That means 79.7% of the championship teams started off the season in the win column.
So what does that mean for the 16 teams that lost on opening weekend? Are they actually out of Super Bowl contention?
The odds of winning a championship are significantly slimmer when a team starts 0-1, as only 11 teams (18.6%) have accomplished the feat.
Still, clubs shouldn’t give up hope. Since the playoff format expanded to 14 teams in 2020, two of the five Super Bowl champions (40%) started 0-1. There have been 25 Super Bowl champions since 2000, eight of which have started 0-1 (32%).
Of course, the odds are slimmer starting 0-1, but franchises can still hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Super Bowl winners that started 0-1
*Note: The 1967 Packers tied their season-opener before going on to win Super Bowl II.
Notice a common theme here? Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterbacks or — quarterbacks on their way to the Hall of Fame — have led the majority of these teams to a championship. Joe Montana led the 1981 49ers, and Troy Aikman was the quarterback of the 1993 Cowboys. Tom Brady was the quarterback of FOUR of these teams.
Patrick Mahomes quarterbacked the 2023 Chiefs and Eli Manning was the quarterback of the 2007 and 2011 Giants (and there is debate on whether he’s a Hall of Famer or not). Basically, a team needs a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback to win a Super Bowl after starting 0-1.
With all this taken into account, which of the 16 teams that started 0-1 have the best chance of winning a Super Bowl? These are four teams that still have a shot based on their Week 1 performance and pedigree from previous years.
The Ravens have overcome poor starts in the past, as they started 0-2 last year and still made the divisional round of the playoffs. While Baltimore hasn’t been to the Super Bowl in the Lamar Jackson era, they still have Jackson and a Super Bowl-winning head coach in John Harbaugh.
Baltimore is going to be in the mix, but the Ravens’ opportunity for home-field advantage took a major hit with the Week 1 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have done this before, starting 0-1 and winning a Super Bowl just two years ago. The Chiefs are always in Super Bowl contention, evidenced by their three championships and five Super Bowl appearances over the past six seasons.
An 0-1 start isn’t the end of the world for Kansas City, even though the Chiefs have a must-win game with the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town.
Prisco’s Week 2 NFL picks: Underdog Chiefs get revenge vs. Eagles, Aaron Rodgers powers Steelers again
Pete Prisco
Best odds to win 2025 Super Bowl
via Fanduel Sportsbook
| Rank | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills (1-0) | +650 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) | +700 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers (1-0) | +750 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens (0-1) | +750 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) | +1000 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers (1-0) | +1800 |
| T-7 | Detroit Lions (0-1) | +1900 |
| T-7 | Los Angeles Rams (1-0) | +1900 |
| 9 | Washington Commanders (1-0) | +2000 |
| T-10 | Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals (all 1-0) | +2200 |
There’s reason for concern in Detroit, and not just because its two coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, took head coaching jobs elsewhere. Detroit was dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball during the blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers, the biggest strength of the Lions over the past two seasons.
Losing both coordinators in one offseason already implied winning the Super Bowl would be tough for Detroit. The Lions are still a contender in the NFC but have a must-win game against the 0-1 Bears.
The AFC South isn’t exactly strong, and the Texans will have their chances to feast on the division. C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans are 2-for-2 in winning division titles, but the quarterback-coach duo hasn’t gotten past the divisional round of the playoffs.
Are the Texans a Super Bowl contender? They’ll have to prove that against the AFC elite in January. There is a lot of talent on Houston’s roster to make a deep playoff run, but the development of Stroud in Year 3 will tell the story.
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