Championship Sunday overreactions: Was the AFC Championship a bronze medal game?

Championship Sunday began with four teams, but only two remain with tickets punched to Super Bowl LX. It’ll be the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks who will battle for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, in a couple of weeks.

This Super Bowl matchup came together after another chaotic chapter in these NFL playoffs. In the AFC Championship, New England leaned on Drake Maye’s legs and a stout defense to outlast the Jarrett Stidham-led Denver Broncos in a game that turned into a snowy affair at Mile High.

As for Seattle, the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl after trading haymakers with the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship, where Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford each threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

With Championship Sunday in the books, storylines from both conference title games will begin pouring out as we break down what just unfolded. Below, we’re going to highlight some of the major takeaways from these two playoff showdowns and determine which should be taken at face value — and which are mere overreactions.

Drake Maye and the Patriots silenced the schedule skeptics

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

The Patriots are back in the Super Bowl after outlasting some remarkably tough defenses along the way. In fact, Drake Maye became the first quarterback ever to win three playoff games against top-five total defenses (yards allowed) in a single postseason. That puts a sizable hole in the argument from skeptics who have cited an easy schedule as a major reason for New England’s success.

Does it silence those doubters entirely? Probably not. While Maye and the Patriots offense have managed to outlast several elite units, New England’s path also included facing Justin Herbert behind an injured offensive line, C.J. Stroud, who threw four interceptions in the divisional round, and Jarrett Stidham, a backup pressed into action after Bo Nix got hurt.

Those circumstances may still leave some questioning just how good the Patriots really are, even though they are now one win away from a championship.

Jarrett Stidham was who we thought he was

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

For a moment, it looked like Stidham was going to follow in the footsteps of Nick Foles and drive a dagger into the heart of the Patriots. After an opening three-and-out, he uncorked a 52-yard pass to Marvin Mims to get Denver inside the New England 10-yard line, then connected with Courtland Sutton for a 6-yard touchdown to take an early 7-0 lead.

All the momentum was on Denver’s side at that point, and the backup quarterback seemed to be rising to the occasion. But then things came crashing back down to earth.

The Broncos went scoreless the rest of the game, and Stidham wasn’t nearly as effective as he was on that lone touchdown drive. On that possession, he completed two of his four pass attempts for 58 yards and a touchdown. Outside of it, he went 15 of 27 for just 75 yards.

He also had two turnovers that proved to be the nail in Denver’s coffin. The first came on a fumble on a backward pass that gave the Patriots possession at the Broncos’ 12-yard line.

Trying to tie the game or take the lead with just over two minutes left in regulation, Stidham threw an interception to Christian Gonzalez on an underthrown ball to Mims. 

Coming into this game, there was growing optimism that Stidham would be able to keep things afloat, but that ultimately didn’t come to fruition. 

AFC Championship was the bronze medal game

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction 

It’s hard to watch the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship and not feel like one conference was a tier above the other. New England was able to come away with a win over Denver to advance to the Super Bowl, but it was by the skin of its teeth, even with the Broncos starting their backup quarterback.

Meanwhile, both the Rams and Seahawks looked like championship heavyweights in their slugfest. I wouldn’t fault you if your first impression after watching both games was that whoever came out of the NFC would end up winning Super Bowl LX, rendering the AFC Championship a bronze medal game of sorts.

While that may be the knee-jerk reaction, it isn’t the reality. Seattle does have the betting edge over New England in the early Super Bowl lines, but the Seahawks are only favored by 3.5. That’s hardly a number that suggests one conference is heads and shoulders above the other.

And as we’ve seen time and time again, you can’t count out any team that reaches the Super Bowl, so New England shouldn’t be viewed as a sacrificial lamb to the NFC champions.

Sean Payton lost Denver the AFC Championship

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

One of the monumental decisions of the AFC Championship came in the early minutes of the second quarter. Already holding a 7-0 lead, the Broncos were threatening to score after moving the ball to the New England 14-yard line.

Faced with a fourth-and-1, Sean Payton elected to keep his offense on the field, and that decision blew up in his face. On the critical down, Stidham was immediately pressured, nearly threw an interception and turned the ball over on downs.

Payton noted afterward that he kept his offense on the field because he believed his team had the momentum to convert, but it proved costly, particularly with Denver losing by a field goal. Going up 10-0 in a game that saw just 17 total points scored would have been the more prudent move.

Still, while it loomed large in a 10-7 loss to New England, it wasn’t the sole reason the Broncos came up short.

Denver had multiple opportunities to draw even after that turnover on downs, but couldn’t execute. On the following drive, Stidham fumbled the football, and the Patriots responded with a touchdown drive to tie the game at seven.

Later in the contest, Will Lutz missed a 54-yard field goal and had a 45-yard attempt blocked, either of which would’ve tied the game at 10. So, while passing up the points in that spot will likely be a main talking point, other factors were working against Denver as well.

Sam Darnold outdueled Matthew Stafford

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

Folks have routinely looked at Darnold sideways and questioned whether this late-career resurgence would translate to postseason success. With each game, there’s been a thought in the back of people’s minds that he’ll turn into a pumpkin, like he did with Minnesota in Week 18 and in the first round of the playoffs last year.

However, that hasn’t happened in his first season with Seattle. In fact, Darnold just outplayed Stafford, the favorite to win NFL MVP, in the NFC Championship Game.

On the surface, their numbers were nearly identical.

• Darnold: 25 of 36, 346 yards passing, 3 TDs, 127.8 passer rating
• Stafford: 22 of 35, 374 yards passing, 3 TDs, 127.6 passer rating

However, Darnold was far superior in key situations, particularly on third down. Stafford failed to complete any of his six pass attempts on third down in the loss. Meanwhile, Darnold completed 6 of 9 on third down for 102 yards and a touchdown.

If Darnold can keep that efficiency going, he’ll have a great shot at completing his redemption arc with a Super Bowl title.

Rams’ special teams were their downfall

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

An Achilles heel for the Rams this season has been their special teams unit. Miscues on that side of the ball put them behind the eight-ball throughout the year, and it reared its head again in this playoff loss to Seattle.

Their deficiencies were put on full display on a Seahawks punt after the opening possession of the third quarter. Returner Xavier Smith fell backward trying to field the ball, muffed the punt, and Seattle recovered at the Rams 17-yard line.

One play later, Darnold connected with Jake Bobo on a touchdown to put L.A. in a 24-13 hole.

Had the Rams played mistake-free on special teams, we could be talking about them heading to the Super Bowl instead of their season coming to a close.

Sean McVay ended the season in a slump

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

Sean McVay is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the NFL, and that remains the case. Still, the Rams head coach did end the season in a relative slump.

In the divisional round win over Chicago, McVay made a number of head-scratching decisions late, but it ultimately didn’t burn L.A. as the team advanced. In the NFC Championship, however, those curious late-game calls persisted and did contribute to the loss.

One of the puzzling decisions came when Los Angeles faced a fourth-and-4 at the Seattle 6-yard line. McVay decided to keep his offense on the field, even though a field goal would’ve cut the Seahawks’ lead to one point with 4:54 remaining in regulation.

The Rams were unable to convert and turned the ball over on downs, keeping the deficit at four points.

On the ensuing Seattle possession, Cooper Kupp appeared to come up short on a third-down catch, but the officials moved the chains with a first-down ruling. McVay did not challenge the spot, instead calling a timeout after the play.

He should’ve simply challenged the ruling, which may have gone in his favor, and potentially retained his timeout to keep L.A. within range. Instead, the timeout was used, the challenge flag stayed in his pocket, and Seattle moved one step closer to victory.

Overall, it wasn’t a banner final two playoff games for McVay.