Championship Sunday recap, plus Seahawks early Super Bowl favorites vs. Patriots

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

After 272 regular-season games and 12 playoff games, there are only two teams left standing in the NFL: the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. And both teams are barely standing after a wild day of games on Sunday. The Patriots beat the Broncos, 10-7, in a blizzard, while the Seahawks needed a fourth-down stop in the final five minutes to beat the Rams, 31-27.

This means the Seahawks will face the Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX. These two teams met 11 years ago in an infamous game that the Patriots won, 28-24, after Malcolm Butler picked off Russell Wilson at the one-yard line with under 30 seconds to play. I’m thinking the NFL should invite Wilson to handle the coin toss, only to have it intercepted by Butler after Wilson flips it.

Not only are we getting a rematch, but we’re also getting a rare Mike-and-Mike Super Bowl, with Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald facing off against Patriots coach Mike Vrabel. The last time we got a Super Bowl where both coaches shared the same first name somehow also involved the Seahawks — and that name was also Mike. Back in Super Bowl XLV, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced off against Mike Holmgren’s Seahawks.

Now that we’ve got that important information out of the way, let’s get to the rundown.

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1. Breaking down the AFC and NFC championship games

Since there were only two games over the weekend, we thought it would make sense to at least take a brief look at what happened in each one, so that’s what we’re going to do:

Patriots 10, Broncos 7

Jarrett Stidham giveth and Jarrett Stidham taketh away. The Broncos and Patriots each scored one touchdown, and they both have Stidham to thank. Denver’s backup QB, who was making his first start of the season, got off to a surprisingly good start when he connected with Marvin Mims for a 52-yard gain on the Broncos’ second possession. Denver eventually scored a touchdown on that drive to take a 7-0 lead.

However, Stidham gave those points right back in the second quarter when he fumbled on a play where New England recovered at Denver’s 12-yard line. Drake Maye scored on a touchdown run two plays later, tying the game at 7-7.

Stidham just wasn’t the same after the fumble. In the second half, he went just 5 of 10 for 10 yards after throwing for 123 yards in the first half. It didn’t help that a blizzard hit in the second half, but with the way he was playing, it might not have mattered.

Drake Maye burned the Broncos defense with his legs. The Patriots QB didn’t have much success through the air — he threw for only 86 yards — but he did plenty of damage on the ground. Not only did he score on a 6-yard run in the first half, but he also iced the victory with a 7-yard run on third-and-5 with just under two minutes left.

Maye also added a 28-yard run on New England’s opening drive of the third quarter — a possession that ended with Andy Borregales providing what turned out to be the game-winning points on a 23-yard field goal.

Controversial fourth-down play. There was only one real controversy in the game, and it came on a Patriots fourth-and-1 play at Denver’s 8-yard line in the third quarter. Drake Maye tried to sneak the ball, and it looked like he got absolutely stuffed, but the call on the field was a first down. The Patriots ended up kicking a field goal on the drive for the only points of the second half by either team.

Broncos’ failed fourth down. After taking an early 7-0 lead, the Broncos drove right back into Patriots territory in the second quarter. The drive stalled at New England’s 14-yard line, and facing a fourth-and-1, Sean Payton decided to go for it. He called a pass play that failed miserably.

A field goal would have given Denver a 10-0 lead, and at the time, it seemed like the most logical move, considering the Broncos had a backup QB playing. A 10-0 advantage would have been huge, especially since Denver’s defense had held the Patriots to just 36 yards on New England’s first four possessions.

The failed fourth down seemed to shift momentum, with Denver gaining only 54 yards the rest of the way. (The Broncos had 127 yards on their first four possessions, including that drive.)

Bad day for kickers. Patriots kicker Andy Borregales and Broncos kicker Wil Lutz both missed two field goals in the game. The four combined missed kicks were the most in a conference title game since 1983, when San Francisco and Washington combined to miss six in the NFC title game.

One of Lutz’s misses came on a 54-yarder in the first half before the weather turned. The other was a 45-yarder that was tipped in the fourth quarter. After the game, Lutz admitted he didn’t think his holder was far enough back on the snap because they couldn’t see the yard lines due to the snow.

As for Borregales, he missed a 63-yarder just before halftime and a 46-yarder in the third quarter.

Seahawks 31, Rams 27

QB duel for the ages. The knock on Sam Darnold is that he doesn’t always show up for big games, but he certainly did Sunday night. The Seahawks QB threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the win. In the second half, Darnold completed 72.2% of his passes while also throwing two touchdown passes.

Not to be outdone, Matthew Stafford threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns. He also might have had the most impressive third quarter in NFC title game history. With the Rams trailing 17-13 at halftime, Stafford came out firing, completing 5 of 6 passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns.

Rams killed by special teams gaffe. The Rams had one of the worst special teams units in the NFL during the regular season, and it ended up being their undoing. The biggest mistake of the game came from punt returner Xavier Smith, who muffed a punt in the third quarter.

Seattle recovered at the Rams’ 17-yard line, and one play later, Darnold threw a TD pass to Jake Bobo to put Seattle on top, 24-13. The muffed punt came after the Rams had forced a punt on Seattle’s first drive of the second half. It was a backbreaker, and it ended up costing L.A. the game.

Sean McVay’s questionable decision. The wildest sequence of the game came in the third quarter after the Seahawks made a stop on third-and-12. However, the Rams ended up getting a first down after Tariq Woolen was flagged for taunting.

On the first play after the penalty, Stafford hit Puka Nacua for a 34-yard score to cut the lead to 31-26 with 2:06 left in the third quarter. At that point, it would have made sense for the Rams to go for two to cut the lead to three points, but McVay kicked the extra point to make it 31-27.

Sean McVay’s other questionable decision. McVay took the conservative route with the extra point, but later in the game, he took the aggressive route when he decided to go for it on fourth-and-4 from Seattle’s 6-yard line with just five minutes left.

Stafford couldn’t find anyone open and threw an incompletion to keep the score at 31-27. At that point, the Rams still had all three timeouts, so McVay could have kicked a field goal to cut it to 31-30. If he had, the Seahawks would have gotten the ball with about 4:45 left and the Rams would have needed a stop.

Going for it on fourth down made some sense, but if you’re going to be aggressive, why not go for two on the earlier touchdown? McVay seemed erratic with his in-game strategy about when and where he wanted to take those chances.

We’ve got more takeaways from the Patriots’ win, and you can check those out here. We’ve also got some takeaways from Seattle’s win over the Rams, and you can read those here.

2. 13 crazy stats from the conference title games

It’s been almost a month since we’ve taken a look at the craziest stats of the week, but they’re making a return today. The research department here at CBS Sports sent me an email with a lot of interesting numbers from the conference title games, so let’s check them out.

1. Patriots make playoff history. New England’s win over Denver was the 40th postseason victory in franchise history, which ties them with the 49ers for the most by any team ever. If the Patriots win Super Bowl LX, they’ll pass the 49ers and have the record to themselves.
2. Points were at a premium in AFC title game. The Patriots and Broncos combined for just 17 points, which is tied for the second-fewest ever scored in an AFC Championship Game. The only lower total came in 1982, when the Dolphins beat the Jets 14-0.
3. Patriots offense won without moving the ball. The Patriots totaled just 206 yards, which was the lowest total by a winning team in a conference title game since the Giants mustered just 199 in a win over Washington in the 1986 NFC title game. Drake Maye’s passing total of 86 yards was the second-lowest by a winning QB in a conference title game over the past 35 years (Jimmy Garoppolo had 77 in a 49ers win in 2019).
4. Patriots won without scoring much. With their 16-3 win over the Chargers and their 10-7 win over the Broncos, the Patriots became the first team in NFL history to win multiple playoff games while scoring 17 points or fewer. They were able to do that thanks to a defense that surrendered just 26 points in three games, the fewest allowed in three playoff games by any defense since 2000, when the Ravens gave up 16.
5. Drake Maye got beat up. The Patriots QB became just the third quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to get sacked at least five times in three straight games and win them all. The only other times that’s happened came in 1986 (Tony Eason) and 2004 (Craig Krenzel).
6. Patriots are road warriors. Including the playoffs, the Patriots went 9-0 on the road this year, which is tied for the best road record in NFL history. New England joins the 2005 Steelers, 2011 Giants and 2020 Buccaneers.
7. Mike Vrabel makes history. The Patriots picked up their 17th win of the season, which is notable because Vrabel has now tied the record for most wins by a coach in his first year with a team. The only other coach to reach 17 was George Seifert, who did it with the 49ers in 1989.
8. Seahawks-Rams rivalry ends in historic fashion. Seattle’s 31-27 win means all three games between these division rivals were decided by four points or less this season, marking just the third time since 1950 that two division rivals have faced each other three times with all three games being that tight (Bills-Dolphins in 2022 and Steelers-Browns in 2002 were the other two).
9. Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold give us a duel for the ages. Stafford threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns while Darnold threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns. This marked the first time since 1984 that both quarterbacks in a conference title game topped 300 passing yards.
10. Stafford’s unlucky streak against Seattle. Over the past 55 years, there have been only four instances of a QB throwing for at least 370 yards and three touchdowns against the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Two of those came from Stafford, who hit those numbers in Week 16 and again in the conference title game — and went 0-2. Stafford also became the first QB in NFL history to lose a playoff start despite throwing for at least 350 yards, with at least three TD passes, and no turnovers.
11. Receiving weapons. Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished with 153 yards and a touchdown while Puka Nacua went off for 165 yards and a touchdown. This marked the first time in conference title history that opposing receivers have topped 150 receiving yards with at least one TD.
12. Davante Adams joins exclusive club he probably doesn’t want to be in. The Rams receiver lost in the NFC title game for the fifth time. His 0-5 record in conference title games is the second-worst mark in NFL history without a win. Only John Cappelletti, who went 0-6 with the Rams and Chargers, had a worse mark.
13. NFL playoff drama continues. Both conference title games were decided by four points or less, marking just the third time that’s happened since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The other two times came in 2011 and 2021.

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

3. Early odds for Super Bowl LX: Seahawks open as the favorite

When it comes to the Super Bowl, the oddsmakers never waste any time posting the first point spread. As soon as the clock hit zero in the Seahawks’ win over the Rams, books around the country released their opening line.

Let’s take a look at where things currently stand (via DraftKings Sportsbook):

Super Bowl LX — Sunday, Feb. 8 (Levi’s Stadium)

• Patriots vs. Seahawks, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
• Current line: Seahawks -4.5, O/U 46.5

Here are a few notes on the game: 

• This will mark the 10th time in NFL history that we’re getting a Super Bowl rematch. These two teams met 11 years ago in Super Bowl XLIX, and over the next two weeks, you’re going to see plenty of replays from that game. That’s the one that ended with Russell Wilson getting picked off by Malcolm Butler at the one-yard line with less than 30 seconds left.
• This will be the first time in 22 years that the Super Bowl matchup will feature two teams that are both coming off a season where they missed the playoffs. The last time it happened was Super Bowl XXXVIII, when the Patriots faced the Panthers.
• Mike Vrabel is making his Super Bowl debut as a coach, but he’s been there three times as a player. In fact, Vrabel could become the first person in NFL history to win a Super Bowl as both a player and head coach for the same franchise. He won three Super Bowls during his playing days in New England. Vrabel also has a chance to become just the fifth coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in his first year with a new team.
• This should be an interesting QB matchup. With Sam Darnold facing Drake Maye, it will mark just the third time ever that two quarterbacks drafted in the top three have faced each other in the Super Bowl (Bengals vs. Rams in 2021 was the last time).
• This will also be just the third time in the past 40 years that the Super Bowl has featured two quarterbacks who entered the postseason with zero career playoff wins (also Bengals vs. Rams in 2021). Darnold is the first QB since Eli Manning in 2007 to reach the Super Bowl despite leading the NFL in turnovers.
• This game is giving us a battle of Super Bowl long shots. It will mark the first time since Super Bowl XVI in 1981 (Bengals vs. 49ers) that both teams had preseason Super Bowl odds of 50-1 or longer. In August, Seattle was at 60-1 while the Patriots were at 80-1.

For a closer look at the early odds, be sure to check out our full story here.

4. Overreactions from the conference title games: Was the NFC Championship the real Super Bowl? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened over the weekend to decide if we’re all overreacting. 

Statement: AFC Championship Game was for third place.

Overreaction. “It’s hard to watch the AFC Championship and the NFC Championship and not feel like one conference was a tier above the other. New England was able to come away with a win over Denver to advance to the Super Bowl, but it was by the skin of its teeth, even with the Broncos starting a backup quarterback.

“Meanwhile, both the Rams and Seahawks looked like championship heavyweights in their slugfest. I wouldn’t fault you if your first impression after watching both games was that whoever came out of the NFC would end up winning Super Bowl LX, rendering the AFC Championship a bronze medal game of sorts.

“While that may be the knee-jerk reaction, it isn’t the reality. Seattle does have the betting edge over New England in the early Super Bowl lines, but the Seahawks are only favored by 4.5. That’s hardly a number that suggests one conference is head and shoulders above the other.”

Statement: Broncos’ Sean Payton lost Denver the AFC title game.  

Overreaction. “One of the monumental decisions of the AFC Championship came early in the second quarter. Already holding a 7-0 lead, the Broncos were threatening to score after moving the ball to the New England 14-yard line.

“Faced with a fourth-and-1, Sean Payton elected to keep his offense on the field, and that decision blew up in his face. Still, while it loomed large in a 10-7 loss, it wasn’t the sole reason Denver came up short. The Broncos had multiple opportunities to draw even after that turnover on downs, but couldn’t execute.”

Statement: Rams’ special teams were their downfall. 

Reality. “An Achilles heel for the Rams this season has been their special teams unit, and it reared its head again in this playoff loss to Seattle.

“Their deficiencies were on full display on a Seahawks punt after the opening possession of the third quarter. Returner Xavier Smith fell backward trying to field the ball, muffed the punt, and Seattle recovered at the Rams’ 17-yard line. One play later, Darnold connected with Jake Bobo for a touchdown to put L.A. in a 24-13 hole.”

We’ve got several more overreactions from Sullivan, and if you want to check those out, you can do that here.

5. 2026 NFL Draft order is almost set: Top 30 teams locked in

With the Broncos and Rams now done for the season, we just took two steps closer to finalizing the NFL Draft order for 2026.

With that in mind, here is the official order for the top 30 spots in the draft:

1. Raiders (3-14)
2. Jets (3-14)
3. Cardinals (3-14)
4. Titans (3-14)
5. Giants (4-13)
6. Browns (5-12)
7. Commanders (5-12)
8. Saints (6-11)
9. Chiefs (6-11) 
10. Bengals (6-11)
11. Dolphins (7-10) 
12. Cowboys (7-9-1)
13. Rams (via Falcons — 8-9)
14. Ravens (8-9) 
15. Buccaneers (8-9) 
16. Jets (via Colts — 8-9) 
17. Lions (9-8)
18. Vikings (9-8)
19. Panthers (8-9)
20. Cowboys (via Packers — 9-7-1) 
21. Steelers (10-7)
22. Chargers (11-6)
23. Eagles (11-6)
24. Browns (via Jaguars — 13-4) 
25. Bears (11-6)
26. Bills (12-5)
27. 49ers (12-5)
28. Texans (12-5)
29. Rams (12-5)
30. Broncos (14-3)

The draft order will be finalized after the Seahawks face the Patriots in Super Bowl LX. If you want to take a look at the needs for each team in the top 30, we’ve got that here.

The 2026 NFL Draft will be coming at you in April from Pittsburgh, so everyone in the Steel City will definitely be excited when the Steelers go on the clock at 21st overall. 

6. Extra points: Steelers set to hire Mike McCarthy

It’s been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

• Steelers have their new coach. The Steelers have only had three coaches since 1969, and now they’ve hired their fourth. The team has agreed to terms with former Packers and Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy. The selection of McCarthy wasn’t a popular one on social media, but owner Art Rooney II doesn’t seem too worried about that. “It’s about picking the coach we believe will help us win games, and social media really doesn’t enter into it,” Rooney said over the weekend. “And none of that will matter once we’re starting to play games.” You can read about his hiring here. 
• Packers hire a defensive coordinator. With Jeff Hafley heading to Miami to take the Dolphins’ head coaching job, the Packers have hired former Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon as their defensive coordinator. Gannon was the Eagles’ defensive coordinator for two seasons (2021-22) before taking the Cardinals job. Arizona fired him earlier this month, which is why he was available in Green Bay.
• Dolphins hire offensive coordinator. The Dolphins have promoted Bobby Slowik to offensive coordinator, according to ESPN. Slowik served as the Texans’ offensive coordinator for two seasons (2023-24), but was fired last year. In February, the Dolphins hired him as their senior passing game coordinator, and now he’s been bumped up to OC on Jeff Hafley’s staff.
• Philip Rivers pulls out of Bills’ coaching search. The longtime NFL quarterback interviewed for the Bills coaching job last week, but he won’t be getting it. According to NFL Media, Rivers doesn’t feel like it’s the right time to possibly take an NFL head coaching job.
• Browns coaching search hits another snag. Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski has taken himself out of consideration for the Browns’ head coaching job, according to ESPN. Udinski is the third candidate to remove himself from consideratio, joining Mike McDaniel and Jesse Minter, who was later hired by the Ravens. The Browns’ search currently has four known candidates left: Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, Rams passing game coordinator Nate Scheelhaase, Commanders run game coordinator Anthony Lynn and former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken.