When you think of the pillars of success the New York Islanders have built around this season, the names that come to mind are Matthew Schaefer, Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, Ilya Sorokin, and the stars of that roster. One name that may come up in the next tier has been the Islanders’ breakout player of the season, and that’s Emil Heineman. Considering his path to the Islanders roster, his emergence has been a great story.
A young Swede, drafted by the Florida Panthers but sent out of town in the trade for Sam Bennett, then traded in the deal that sent Tyler Toffoli from the Montreal Canadiens to the Calgary Flames, he becomes really an afterthought in the Noah Dobson trade, and has since become an important member of the supporting cast for the Islanders’ success. He’s not just a great story; he’s become one of the most important members of this Islanders roster.
Heineman’s Success
In 74 games, Heineman has scored 21 goals and nine assists for 30 points. His point total isn’t the flashiest, but his goal total puts him behind only Horvat and Schaefer on the Islanders. He’s one of only three players with 20 goals. Now, he does have three power-play markers, meaning he hasn’t reached the 20-goal plateau at 5-on-5 yet, but considering how he got to New York, I don’t think the team cares.
Related: Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin Should Be the Vezina Trophy Favorite
When a player breaks out like this, fans often turn to their shooting percentage to see if the scoring rate is sustainable. If it’s too high, it feels like regression is inevitable. For Heineman, it’s actually lower than you’d think. 12.6% is high by league standards, but he shot at 15.6% as a Canadien last season, so it’s actually low. Given that the Swedish winger is only 24, there is every chance that he continues to develop into an even better scorer for the Islanders moving forward.
Analytical Weakness
When you look at his underlying analytical numbers, there is some concern, but again, in a positive way. At 5-on-5, Heineman has a goals for per 60 (GF/60) rate of 1.93, per Natural Stat Trick. That’s actually quite low for someone who has crossed the 20-goal plateau. If we compare it to his expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60), it’s not where you’d expect it to be. His xGF/60 is 2.57, meaning he’s underperforming despite hitting the back of the net 20 times. He’s got more offense to give for the Islanders.
Now, he may be hamstrung from playing a bigger role on the team because of his defensive frailties. He’s a minus-7 on the season, but if you don’t like plus/minus, he’s got a goals against per 60 (GA/60) of 2.36. You might say “that doesn’t seem so bad”, and you’d be right. The problem is he has an expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) of 3.07. If he played 60 minutes, he’d give up three goals. That’s something that has to improve before he should be completely trusted in a bigger role.
His goals-for percentage (GF%) is 45.07, meaning that when he’s on the ice, the Islanders score 45% of the goals while opponents score 55%, approximately. His expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is 45.56. It’s marginally better, but it is still an area of his game that needs improvement. He’s still young enough to think that the development that comes with playing NHL games will help him improve in his own zone, but he’s not there yet.
Heineman’s Impact
On the season, the Islanders have scored 216 goals. That means Heineman has scored 10% of them, or just under. He’s become someone the Islanders rely on heavily, and credit has to go to the front office that evaluated him to be such an impactful player when he was acquired. He’s become one of the better depth pieces the Islanders have to support their star players, and it is players like Heineman that solidify rosters for the postseason.
He’s become one of the most important parts of the Islanders depth, and if they are going to make the playoffs, they will require a little more from everyone on the roster. Heineman is one of the few players on the team who feels like he’s having a great season, but he still has another level to reach before we see him at his peak. He’s the best of the supporting cast right now, but he could become even more if he continues to build his confidence in this critical time of the season. Will he help the Islanders get to the postseason? We’ll have to wait and see.
