Five bold Super Bowl predictions: Unwanted history for Patriots’ Drake Maye, more

And then there were two. The New England Patriots will face the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California on Feb. 8.

It’s a rematch 11 years in the making; the two franchises produced a Super Bowl XLIX instant-classic 11 years ago, with Malcolm Butler’s iconic goal-line interception helping New England hold on for a 28-24 win. Much has changed since then, as one would expect in a whirlwind league such as the NFL, though the level of change — Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick coached which teams this season? — is still startling.

It’s not Russell Wilson vs. Tom Brady, but it is a fascinating and unlikely quarterback meeting between Sam Darnold and Drake Maye. Darnold, playing for his fifth different NFL team, had never won a playoff game before this season. Maye and the Patriots are the first team ever to make the Super Bowl one year after losing 13+ games.

The paths differed. The Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game in these playoffs, having to overcome several of the NFL’s best defenses and playing some outstanding defense of their own. The Seahawks, who also feature one of the NFL’s top defenses, have averaged 36 points per game thus far this postseason.

None of those number matter now, though, and with two weeks until Super Bowl Sunday, both teams have ample time to rest up, study up and prepare to put their best foot forward with the Lombardi Trophy at stake.

Here are five bold predictions for what will go down.

NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Drake Maye becomes the most-sacked quarterback in a single NFL postseason

Maye has taken five sacks in each of his three postseason games this year. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell has struggled mightily, and the interior of the line has had its ups and downs, too. Maye, who loves to rip the deep ball, is liable to hold onto the ball for a tick or two too long.

That all plays into the hands of Seattle’s defense, under the direction of the outstanding Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks had the NFL’s sixth-highest pressure rate this season and finished tied for seventh in sacks. Though they have managed just three sacks in two postseason games, the Seahawks have a deep, dangerous unit. Four different players had at least six sacks this season, and they come from all over: Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II (seven each) at defensive tackle and Uchenna Nwosu (seven) and DeMarcus Lawrence (six) on the edge.

Maye’s 15 playoff sacks taken are already second-most in a single postseason. Joe Burrow took 19 in the 2022 postseason. Maye, unfortunately for him and Patriots fans, will break that “record.”

2. Kayshon Boutte has the longest play of the game

The Seahawks’ cornerbacks play some of the most aggressive coverage there is, and that works for them, because they are excellent. Devon Witherspoon is one of the league’s best, Riq Woolen is extremely talented (if inconsistent), and Josh Jobe has been tremendous all year. Add in rookie Swiss Army knife Nick Emmanwori and lockdown safeties, and this is one of the league’s toughest nuts to crack.

But it’s not impossible to crack. There’s a big play or two available if the offensive line holds up and if the quarterback is willing to stand in there — two admittedly big “ifs,” but ones that the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford showed can be fulfilled.

Maye might just be able to do it, and that’s why Boutte will register the longest play of the game. The third-year LSU product has come into his own this season as a physical, fast downfield target for Maye. His 42-yard touchdown catch against the Houston Texans in the divisional round — facing All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr., no less — could be a preview of things to come in the Super Bowl.

3. Rashid Shaheed plays a pivotal role

Shaheed has been everything the Seahawks could have wanted since they acquired him from the New Orleans Saints at the trade deadline. That’s been especially true in big games. In a key Week 16 matchup against the Rams, Shaheed had a punt return touchdown. He opened the divisional round against the San Francisco 49ers with a kickoff return touchdown. He had a 51-yard catch early in the NFC Championship Game.

Shaheed adds a measure of explosiveness to this offense that no one else can replicate. Expect him to produce at least one big play, via a return, a reception or a run. Maybe there’s even some trickery involved.

4. Sam Darnold has an early turnover …

Darnold has played very well this postseason despite having to manage an oblique issue. Against the Rams, he went 25-for-36 for 346 yards and three touchdowns. He did not have a turnover, and he has not had a turnover in either of his playoff games. Going back to the regular season, he has gone three straight games without a turnover.

That may not seem like much, but considering Darnold had an NFL-high 20 turnovers this season, it’s a noteworthy accomplishment.

It’s also a streak that will end early in the Super Bowl. Whether it’s a strip sack off the edge from K’Lavon Chaisson or up the middle from Milton Williams or an interception from either Christian Gonzalez or Carlton Davis, Darnold coughs it up early.

5. … but bounces back to win the Super Bowl, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba getting MVP honors

If there’s one thing Darnold has shown the ability to do, it’s respond. His career (at least as a starter) was seemingly over before he landed on his feet with the Minnesota Vikings. When he joined the Seahawks, there was plenty of skepticism, especially given how his time in Minnesota ended. When the Seahawks lost to the 49ers in Week 1, Darnold had a turnover and failed to find the end zone. It was hardly the start he envisioned.

But at every turn, he has responded well. The Rams had been his Kryptonite until he diced them up in the NFC Championship Game. Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak does an outstanding job giving Darnold lots of easy answers, but Darnold also delivers some strong, tight-window throws, too. It can get him in trouble at times, but it also takes a high-floor offensive scheme and raises its ceiling.

In a breakout year, Smith-Njigba seems primed to star on the biggest stage. A meticulous route runner who’s dangerous after the catch, too, Smith-Njigba will have a big game — think something similar to his 10-catch, 153-yard, one-touchdown NFC Championship Game — en route to MVP honors. We’ll roll with Seahawks 24, Patriots 20 as the Lombardi Trophy returns to the Pacific Northwest.