How one under-the-radar team is set to benefit from the Giannis trade drama

The big markets and the contenders have all been getting their ducks in a row with Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation continuing to swirl out of Milwaukee. Will the Bucks’ (currently injured) star force his way to the New York Knicks? Will a desperate, fading contender like the Warriors or Heat nudge their way into the proceedings? Will one of the younger, asset-rich Western Conference juggernauts like the Spurs or Rockets cast their lot with the two-time MVP?

We still don’t know yet. We don’t even know if Antetokounmpo’s most recent injury coupled with Milwaukee’s downward spiral (the Bucks are 18-26 and outside of the play-in picture in the East with 10 days before the trade deadline) will lead to a trade before Feb 5. But there’s something we can say with relative confidence. No matter how this shakes out, no matter where Antetokounmpo is playing after the deadline or next season, there is one team set to benefit from all of this chaos, and it’s not one of the big markets or contenders trying to get Giannis himself. It’s the team that gave Antetokounmpo a co-star three years ago: the Portland Trail Blazers.

Why? Because there are no future draft picks more valuable to a rebuilding team than its own. The Bucks can’t tank post-Antetokounmpo without controlling their own picks. Portland controls most of Milwaukee’s outgoing draft assets, and according to Jake Fischer, the Trail Blazers are interested in using those picks to swoop into an Antetokounmpo deal and improve their team. That won’t happen through actually acquiring Antetokounmpo. He doesn’t appear to want to play in Portland. But the Blazers can get better by working as a third team to pull assets that the Blazers want off the team acquiring Giannis.

Let’s lay out exactly what Portland is working with here. Milwaukee owes control of its next five first-round picks to other teams. Its 2026 pick is tied to the New Orleans Pelicans, with the better of those two selections headed to Atlanta. The Hawks will certainly benefit if Milwaukee jumps up in the lottery, but in all likelihood, both Atlanta and Milwaukee are winding up with valuable lottery picks. The Pelicans control the highest-upside outcomes for Milwaukee’s 2027 pick, however, as it is once again tied to the Hawks. New Orleans gets the higher picks between the Pelicans and Bucks next season. Atlanta gets the lower one, provided the picks don’t both land in the top four. The Pelicans won’t dangle the more favorable of those two picks back to the Bucks after the debacle  that giving away an unprotected 2026 pick turned out to be, so it’s unlikely any Antetokounmpo trade reverts Bucks draft control back to Milwaukee in the next two years.

However, the Portland Trail Blazers largely control Milwaukee’s first-round picks between 2028 and 2030 thanks to the 2023 Damian Lillard trade. We say “largely” because there are some caveats we need to cover. Let’s go year-by-year here:

• In 2030, Portland has the right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee. Very straightforward. No more information needed.
• In 2029, Portland will receive Milwaukee’s unprotected first-round pick. However, it is also set to receive Boston’s. Between Milwaukee’s, Boston’s and its own, Portland was initially set to have three 2029 first-round picks. However, in the Deni Avdija trade, they gave away the second-most favorable of the three. Therefore, while Portland couldn’t guarantee Milwaukee its own pick back, it could still trade the Bucks the most favorable of those three picks. That would give the Bucks room to tank because Milwaukee would either keep its own high lottery pick or get a better one.
• In 2028, things are extremely complicated. Portland has the right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee. However, it can’t simply renounce its right to a swap in a trade because Washington also has the right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee, with the caveat that it would receive the less favorable of Milwaukee’s and Portland’s picks (thanks to the Kyle Kuzma trade). This means that in order for Milwaukee to get control of its 2028 first-round pick back, Portland would have to trade the Bucks their own pick in full. This would give Milwaukee both its own pick and Portland’s to work with, allowing the Bucks to keep the more favorable and send the less favorable to the Wizards. But there’s yet another issue we have to address here, and that’s the lottery-protected 2026 pick Portland owes Chicago. Why is that relevant? Because it remains lottery-protected in 2027 and 2028. Therefore, there’s an unlikely but plausible scenario in which Portland misses the playoffs in 2026 and 2027 and then makes the playoffs in 2028. In that scenario, Portland wouldn’t have a pick to swap with Milwaukee, meaning it would lose its swap rights entirely, allowing Washington the right to swap with Milwaukee unprotected. To avert this crisis scenario, Portland and Milwaukee would have to pay Chicago off to get control of that lottery-protected pick back. That’s probably doable. It’s a lottery-protected pick, after all, so it’s not especially valuable. The Bulls would just have to be compensated in some other way.

Got all that? Here’s the short version: Portland could give Milwaukee control over its 2030 pick tomorrow, as well as functional control over its 2029 pick. There would be hoops to jump through in 2028, but it’s doable if the parties involved are motivated enough. Basically, the Blazers couldn’t give the Bucks the ability to tank in the next few years, but it could shorten the misery of its upcoming pick-less period.

This makes the Trail Blazers a key potential facilitator in any possible Antetokounmpo trade. Any team interested in trading for him should be in touch with Portland about potentially getting the Bucks some of those picks back.

Fischer already offered one potential solution, citing longstanding Portland interest in Knicks forward Mikal Bridges. The Knicks are the one team Antetokounmpo is known to have expressed interest in, and the Bucks, presumably going young after Antetokounmpo, wouldn’t have much reason to keep Bridges. That creates a straightforward three-team alignment: New York gets Antetokounmpo, Portland gets Bridges, Milwaukee gets a bunch of other stuff from the Knicks or a possible fourth team along with some of its own picks back from Portland. Some version of this scenario could play out with any other interested parties. If Miami’s in the mix, maybe Portland could swoop in and try to nab promising young big man Kel’El Ware.

Portland wouldn’t even necessarily need to focus on players. Say Golden State is in the mix for Antetokounmpo. It might just benefit Portland to diversify its portfolio of future draft assets. Say the Warriors offer the Bucks full control over their next seven drafts: four picks, three swaps. Could the Blazers turn around and offer the Bucks one of their own picks back in exchange for two years of Golden State control? Probably, yeah, at least depending on which years they target.

The obvious question here becomes… if Milwaukee’s picks are so valuable, why would Portland give them up? It’s a valid concern. Milwaukee’s picks have quite a bit of upside in the post-Antetokounmpo era. But they are uniquely valuable to Milwaukee, specifically, because they are the picks Milwaukee controls. To the Blazers, they’re something of a mystery box. They could assume Milwaukee will be bad in 2028, 2029 and 2030, and they might be right. Or, they might wind up in the situation Houston is currently eyeing in Phoenix. The Rockets have draft control over the Suns in 2027 and 2029. Over the summer, those picks looked like some of the best in all of basketball. Now, the Suns are a possible playoff team. Building a true championship contender is hard. Building a competitive team? Not so much. Trading away some of Milwaukee’s draft control would be a hedge against the Bucks being at least competent later in the decade. We’ve got a long way to go until 2030, after all.

The Rockets are instructive here in another regard. When the Nets traded Bridges to the Knicks, they traded for control of their own picks in 2025 and 2026 in the process. There was a hidden genius in that trade that may only really become clear in a year. Houston also controlled Brooklyn’s pick in 2027. By giving the Nets control of their 2025 and 2026 picks back, the Rockets gave the Nets incentive to be bad in 2025 and 2026. In the process, they reasoned it would be more difficult for Brooklyn to get good in time for 2027. By giving away some of their Brooklyn picks, they strengthened the one that remained. Portland could aim to do something similar with Milwaukee: give the Bucks a reason to be bad during the broad period in which it controls their drafts, but retain control over at least one of those picks in order to benefit.

Portland has shown no appetite for an extended tank. The Blazers haven’t picked higher than No. 7 since trading Lillard to Milwaukee in 2023, and they hit the fast-forward button last offseason when they traded for Jrue Holiday. Portland wants to get competitive quickly. The Blazers are already a .500 team, and their approach to roster-building suggests that if they can take advantage of this drama in Milwaukee to add talent now, they’re going to do so. We may not know where Antetokounmpo himself is going to wind up, nor do we know when a trade could happen, but when the inevitable deal does come, it seems like there’s a good chance the Portland Trail Blazers will somehow be involved and benefitting from Milwaukee’s downfall.