How the Yankees can win the AL East title: Bombers face an uphill but not impossible climb against Blue Jays

At 80-64, clinching a 33rd consecutive winning season is on the horizon for the New York Yankees. An AL East title is unlikely to come with it. Tuesday’s loss to the Detroit Tigers (DET 12, NYY 2) combined with the Toronto Blue Jays rallying late to beat the Houston Astros (TOR 4, HOU 3 in 10 innings) put the Yankees three games behind Toronto with 18 to play. The Blue Jays have the tiebreaker too.

Here are the AL East standings heading into Wednesday’s slate:

1. Toronto Blue Jays: 83-61
2. New York Yankees: 80-64 (3 GB)
3. Boston Red Sox: 81-65 (3 GB)
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 72-72 (11 GB)
5. Baltimore Orioles: 67-77 (16 GB)

Because the Blue Jays have the tiebreaker, the Yankees are really four games back in the AL East, not three. Truth be told, the Red Sox probably have a better chance to win the division than New York because they at least have a series remaining with the Blue Jays (Sept. 23-25). The Yankees are done playing the Blue Jays and will need help to win the division.

Erasing a four-game deficit with 18 to play and no head-to-head games remaining is not impossible, just unlikely. Toronto’s ninth-inning rally and tenth-inning win Tuesday was a major blow to New York’s AL East chances. What needs to happen for the Yankees to complete a comeback and win their division? Lots of things, some more important than others. Let’s dive in.

What needs to happen, literally

The Yankees and Blue Jays both have 18 games remaining and the math is simple: New York must win four more games than the Blue Jays the rest of the way to win the AL East. Here is exactly what the Yankees must do to win the division depending on what the Blue Jays do in their final 18 games:

If you’re the Yankees, you’re hoping the Blue Jays play .500 ball these last 18 games, and if they play worse than that, you thank the baseball gods. The Blue Jays going 9-9 would require the Yankees to go at least 13-5. It wasn’t long ago that the Yankees last won 13 times in an 18-game span (Aug. 16 to Sept. 4). It’s doable. A big ask, but doable.

They have to play their best players

The Yankees have lost their bet on Anthony Volpe. They passed on all those star free-agent shortstops a few years ago (Corey Seager, Trea Turner, etc.) because they believed so much in Volpe, and that belief has not been rewarded. Volpe has been one of the worst hitters in baseball the last three years (career 83 OPS+) and his defense has slipped significantly this year.

The most optimistic outlook of Volpe says he’ll still be a good player at his peak, though that peak won’t align with whatever’s left of the prime of Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, et al. Right now though, the Yankees have to put their best players on the field today, in 2025, to win the AL East. That no longer includes Volpe, who has a .181 on-base percentage since Aug. 2.

Utility man and trade-deadline pickup José Caballero is no great shakes offensively, though his on-base percentage starts with a 3 (.330), he leads baseball with 43 stolen bases, and he reliably catches the ball. That is not something you can say about Volpe, who ranks second among all players in errors because his arm is short and he plays back on the ball too much rather than charging.

Top prospect Jasson Domínguez has started only one of the last eight games and six of the last 20 games because the Yankees have three better outfielders (Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham). Catcher Austin Wells, last year’s third-place finisher in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, sat six times in a nine-game span earlier this month because he was slumping hard.

The Yankees play favorites and they are not subtle about it. Volpe gets to stay in the lineup (he’s started 137 of 144 games) while other young players rode the pine when they weren’t performing. How much has the way they’ve treated Volpe contributed to his poor performance? Clearly, the Yankees are willing to take playing time away from struggling young players, just not this one.

If the Yankees do not win the AL East, it will not be because they kept Volpe in the lineup. He’s only one player. To win the division though, the Yankees will need to put their best players on the field. That’s not too much to ask. The best possible Yankees lineup includes Caballero, not Volpe, at shortstop. Making that change would be one — just one — step in the right direction.

“Anthony, I view as our shortstop, but Caballero is a really good player,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including MLB.com, prior to Tuesday’s game. “I’m aware of that and feel a lot of confidence anytime I put him in there. We’re at a time of year where we’re playing for a lot right now, so I look at it as all hands on deck.”

The middle of the bullpen has to be better

Tuesday’s loss to Detroit featured one of the biggest bullpen meltdowns of the season. Fernando Cruz, who has been very good overall this year, and Mark Leiter Jr., who has not, combined to surrender seven runs before recording an out in the seventh inning thanks in part to four walks, a hit batsman, and a wild pitch. It became an ugly nine-run inning for the Yankees.

Cruz (five runs) and Leiter (four runs) became the first set of teammates to allow at least four runs without recording an out in a game since 2010, and only the 12th set of teammates to ever do it. It was a historically bad performance and those are always anomalous, though New York’s bullpen has been a liability really all season, and especially the last few weeks.

“It got away from us,” Boone said after Tuesday’s game (via MLB.com). “It’s not like we got hit a lot all over the yard. Just some balls finding some holes, but too many free passes.”

Even excluding Tuesday’s meltdown, New York’s bullpen ranks 21st in ERA (4.51) and 21st in win probability added (minus-0.83) since the trade deadline. David Bednar has stepped in as closer and been great, but Camilo Doval has been demoted out of high leverage work and Jake Bird was relegated to Triple-A after just three appearances. The Yankees went 1 for 3 with deadline bullpen adds and that’s not good.

Bednar, Luke Weaver, and (other than Tuesday) Cruz make a good-if-not-great late-game trio. The middle of the bullpen with Doval, Leiter, and Devin Williams has been leaky though. Boone has been willing to use Bednar, Cruz, and Weaver for four-plus outs at times in recent weeks, but he can’t do that for another 18 games. The Yankees badly need the middle of the bullpen to step up.

They have to take advantage of their schedule

On paper, the Yankees have one of easiest remaining schedules in baseball. They have two more games with the Tigers and then a weekend series with the Red Sox in Boston. After that, the Yankees close out their season with the Minnesota Twins, the Orioles, the Chicago White Sox, and the Orioles again. That’s 13 straight games against non-contenders to close out the schedule.

That said, a favorable schedule is not the same thing as wins in the bank. Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game. If given the choice though, you’d certainly take the Yankees’ remaining schedule over the Blue Jays’, who will play every remaining series against a team at least on the periphery of the postseason race save one weekend with the Orioles.

The schedule favors the Yankees and taking advantage of it is an absolute must to win the AL East. Drop a series to the Orioles or the White Sox and forget it, the division race is over. The road to the postseason and a division title is paved with wins against bad teams. It is imperative the Yankees convert this favorable schedule into a boatload of wins the rest of the way.

It goes without saying the Yankees need Judge to lead the way offensively to win the AL East, though he’s walked 13 times in the last 11 games as teams increasingly pitch around him. They also need Max Fried and Carlos Rodón to remain excellent atop the rotation, Bellinger and Grisham to keep making an impact, and Bednar to protect every lead. Everyone must pull their weight.

The Yankees are secure in their postseason berth. They’re essentially tied with the Red Sox for the top wild card and have a five-game lead on a postseason spot, and hold the tiebreaker over just about every team on the outside looking in. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at 99.5%. SportsLine went ahead and rounded them up to 100%. A spot in the tournament isn’t in question. It is crunch time in the AL East though. The Yankees’ chances are fading, but the door isn’t completely closed just yet.