The Indianapolis Colts are entering their third year under head coach Shane Steichen, as well as the third year of quarterback Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Steichen came to the Colts with high expectations after helping lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl in 2022, and many expected him to help Richardson become an elite play-maker at quarterback given his incredible athletic build and ability. Unfortunately for the Colts, Richardson played only four games as a rookie due to injury and he was in an out of the lineup in 2024, leading Steichen to roll with Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco in 19 of the team’s 34 games over the last two years.
Richardson has been uneven when he has played, completing just over 47% of his passes last year. While you can argue he’s still developing, only Tim Tebow and Akili Smith have completed less than 48% of passes while throwing at least 250 attempts. That duo combined to throw 49 more passes over their next two seasons before crashing out of the NFL.
The Colts have a contingency plan of sorts for 2025 as the team signed Giants castoff Daniel Jones in free agency. The sixth overall pick in 2019, Jones went 24-44-1 as the starter in New York, but he has shown the ability to play well, as he helped lead the Giants to the playoffs with a 1.1% interception rate while completing more than two-thirds of his passes in 2022. If Steichen gets that level of production from either Richardson or Jones — or a combination of both — Indy may finally get over the hump and make the postseason for the first time since 2020.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Colts’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Colts in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Indianapolis Colts season review
- Regular season: 8-9 (Second, AFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Longest playoff drought (four seasons) since seven-year streak from 1988-94
- No. 24 scoring defense (bottom 10 in NFL for third straight season)
- Anthony Richardson: worst comp pct (47.7%) in a season since Tim Tebow in 2011Â
2025 Indianapolis Colts offseason review
| QB | Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger | Daniel Jones | Riley Leonard (6) |
| RB | Trey Sermon | Khalil Herbert | DJ Giddens (5) |
| WR | Juwann Winfree | Ajou Ajou | |
| TE | Kylen Granson | Tyler Warren (1) | |
| OL | Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, Wesley French | Luke Tenuta | Jalen Travis (4) |
| DL | Raekwon Davis, Taven Bryan | Neville Gallimore, Eric Johnson | Tim Smith (6) |
| EDGE | Dayo Odeyingbo | JT Tuimoloau (2) | |
| LB | E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard | Joe Bachie, Jacob Phillips | |
| CB | Charvarius Ward, Corey Ballentine | Justin Walley (3) | |
| S | Julian Blackmon, Ronnie Harrison, Trevor Denbow | Cam Bynum | Hunter Wohler (7) |
| STAFF | Gus Bradley (DC) | Lou Anarumo (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +8000 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2023 | +12500 | 6.5 | Over | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2022 | +2240 | 9.5 | Under | 4 | 3rd, AFC South |
| 2021 | +3500 | 9 | Push | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9.5 | Over | 11 | L, Wild card round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Indianapolis Colts futures odds
| Go Over win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-120) | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+100) |
| Go Under win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+100) | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-120) |
| Win Super Bowl | +10000 | +8500 | +12000 | +8500 |
| Win AFC | +4500 | +4000 | +5000 | +3500 |
| Win AFC South | +375 | +360 | +360 | +320 |
| Make playoffs | +170 | +215 | +210 | +190 |
| Miss playoffs | -210 | -265 | -260 | -240 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3500 | +6000 | +8000 | +4400 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Jonathan Taylor props
| MVP | +25000 | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 |
| Offensive POY | +2800 | +3000 | +4000 | +4200 |
| Most rush yards | +750 | +1000 | +900 | |
| Rush yards O/U | 1250.5 | 1250.5 | 1200.5 | 1175.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Colts
Despite uneven play from the quarterback spot, Steichen has been able to keep the Colts at a league-average level. What if things click for Richardson in Year 3 and he can stay healthy? What if Jones takes off in Steichen’s system in his first year in Indy? The Colts added more talent to the offense with rookie tight end Tyler Warren, and he joins an underrated pass-catching group that has both Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. Additionally, Taylor has been one of the league’s best backs, and he’s shown he can be the driving force of this offense. Two internal replacements on the offensive line did solid work when called upon as mid-round rookies last year, and the potential is there for this to return to being a top-10 offense like it was in 2023.
The Colts made some notable additions to the secondary in Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. Both are coming off disappointing seasons, but they have graded out well previously and could be just the help the team needs in the defensive backfield to elevate from being a mediocre unit over the last few years to something around league average. That’s especially true if second-round edge rusher JT Tuimoloau can hit the ground running to give a boost to the team’s starters on the defensive line. The Colts also made a change at defensive coordinator, which could help as Gus Bradley has long seemed past his prime running an NFL defense.
Reasons to fade the Colts
The Colts have one of the lowest quarterback floors in the NFL in 2025. If neither Richardson nor Jones click for Steichen and Co., that unit may be one of the five worst groups in the league. Even with talent on the coaching staff and across the rest of the roster, bottom-five quarterback play is simply too much to overcome. Taylor needs to stay healthy to take pressure off the passing game, but he’s had just one fully healthy season in five NFL campaigns. The Colts also have a new-look offensive line that may not be able to handle a full season’s worth of work.
New defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo comes from Cincinnati, and while he should be an improvement from Bradley running the Colts defense, his defenses were not very good over the last two years, which included finishing just 25th in scoring last season. If the Colts are basically the same as they were last year on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to see them improving in a division that has gotten better around them with top-two draft picks Cam Ward and Travis Hunter on division rivals.
How to bet the Colts in 2025
- Over 7.5 wins +100 (FanDuel)
- Tyler Warren Under 500.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)
I have the Colts as right around a 7.5-win team this year, and while we have an Under 7.5 at +105 available as well, I’m more inclined to believe in Steichen and play the Over with the expectation that his offense is going to improve in one of two ways: either Anthony Richardson is going to play well enough to keep the starting job, or Daniel Jones will be an improvement over what Steichen has gotten from the QB position the last two years. Jones has struggled the last two years as well but was in a much worse situation, especially in terms of the players tasked with protecting him. If Jones ends up the Week 1 starter, I may sprinkle a little bit on the Colts to win the division at +350 or higher, as I think they’ll have a better shot than those odds imply with the Texans potentially taking a step back.
Colts tight ends collectively received 75 targets last year, which I think is on the high end of what we should expect, as that includes Joe Flacco throwing at least 35 passes in five of his six starts. That’s not how the offense is designed to operate, and no matter which quarterback is under center, we shouldn’t expect them to come close to throwing 35 passes in most games. Only seven of the 37 tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000 reached 500 yards as rookies, and four of them had at least 110 targets as rookies. The others had 91 (Dalton Kincaid), 78 (Dustin Keller) and 66 (Noah Fant). I don’t see Warren even getting to Fant’s number of targets as a rookie, and if he does, he’ll need to have a similarly high yards per reception figure (14.1 for Fant) to top 500 yards.
