Who will face Team USA in the finals of the 2026 World Baseball Classic? That question will be answered Monday night in Miami when Venezuela takes on Italy. Italy, the Cinderellas of this edition of the tournament and the last undefeated team standing, advanced to the semis with a win over Puerto Rico. Meantime, Venezuela reached the “final four” with an upset win over Japan, the reigning WBC champs. This one has much to live up to after the United States’ taut and ultimately controversial semifinal win over the Dominican Republic on Sunday, but both of these teams are quite acquainted with high-energy drama.
How here are the essentials for this high-stakes affair:
- Time: 8 p.m. ET |Â Date: Monday, March 16
- Location: loanDepot Park, Miami
- TV channel: FS1, Fox Deportes | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Starting pitchers: Keider Montero (VEN) vs. Aaron Nola (ITA)
- Odds (via FanDuel): VEN -188 | O/U 10.5
And now for some things to know about the big game.
Italy comes in on a roll offensively, but Venezuela has the bats
In terms of thumping the ball in this WBC, only the eliminated Dominican Republic squad, which was held to a single run by Paul Skenes and the U.S. bullpen on Sunday, has been more potent. Italy in this WBC has a .982 OPS, which ranks second behind the D.R. It has also hit 12 home runs in five games, which ranks second to the D.R.’s tally of 15 in six games. Kansas City Royals messmates Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone have paced the attack, and the much less heralded Dante Nori also has a pair of homers. During pool play, Italy hung eight runs on a U.S. team that has given up 21 total runs in the tournament. Italy also scored nine against a high-quality Mexico team in pool play.
As for Venezuela, it’s stronger on paper, what with productive MLB hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr., William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Willson Contreras, Maikel Garcia, Luis Arraez, Eugenio Suárez, Salvador Perez, and Gleyber Torres peppering the roster. Thus far, the Venezuela attack has been good but not great. The worry for Italy is that it finds its expected level in a hurry Monday night.
The starting-pitcher matchup theoretically favors Italy
Earlier on Monday, Italy manager Francisco Cervelli went off script and swapped out Michael Lorenzen, who was initially expected to start against Venezuela, for Aaron Nola. That’s a theoretical upgrade for Italy. While Nola wasn’t his usual self for the Phillies last season, he has a long track record as a front-end starter (and three top-10 finishes in the NL Cy Young vote along the way). This will be his second start of the 2026 WBC. In his first start, he turned in a strong outing against Mexico with no runs on four hits in five innings. Over that span, Nola had five strikeouts against one walk. Cervelli may also use Lorenzen against Venezuela, ESPN reports, which would set up a potential bullpen game against the U.S. should Italy advance to the final.
Across the way, Venezuela and manager Omar López will go with 25-year-old Tigers right-hander Keider Montero. Across two MLB seasons, Montero has made 28 starts and 11 relief appearances for Detroit. Over that span, he’s pitched to a 4.57 ERA and a 5.05 FIP with 149 strikeouts and 62 unintentional walks in 189 innings. He’s also logged 8 â…“ postseason innings for Detroit over the last two years, so Montero is no stranger to pressure baseball. During pool play, Montero worked three scoreless innings in relief against Nicaragua.
Once the game reaches the bullpens, the pitching edge figures to flip to Venezuela, so getting some length from Nola (and perhaps Lorenzen after him) will be essential for Italy.Â
A mighty U.S. team awaits the winner
This semifinal is of course foremost on the minds of Italy and Venezuela, but it’s impossible to ignore that a spot in the final against Team USA awaits Monday night’s winner. Italy is in the semis for the first time in WBC history, which of course means it has never made it to the final. If the Italians make it there, they’ll be tasked with upsetting the U.S. for a second time in this WBC. Venezuela, meanwhile, is in the semis for the first time since 2009, when it fell to Korea. Venezuela is a baseball powerhouse as nations go, but a spot in the final has thus far eluded it.
As for the U.S., beating it will be an imposing task no matter who advances. While the lineup has yet to find its expected level, it’s stuffed with All-Stars and power, and those bats could rise to meet expectations at any moment. Mets right-hander Nolan McLean is expected to start for the U.S. in Tuesday night’s title game. The U.S. bullpen will also enjoy that extra day of rest compared to Italy or Venezuela.
First, though, comes the essential matter of which of these two teams is able to take that next step.Â
Prediction
Italy’s spotless performance to date and theoretical edge in the pitching match-up are duly noted, but it says here the Venezuela offense rises to meet the level of its individual talent and punishes the Italy bullpen in the middle to late innings. Prediction: Venezuela 8, Italy 5
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